Grand National Stats: Looking at the data to find the winner

All the stats you need to find the winner of the Grand National!
All the stats you need to find the winner of the Grand National!

With the Grand National fast approaching, Tanya Stevenson has taken a look at some of the key stats and trends to help you pick the winner...

Only just over a week to go to the Grand National at Aintree, it’s a meeting I have been to more that forty times, the majority of which were working at the family’s bookmaking pitch.  In that time we would never have seen a favourite as short as Cloth Cap and after his recent Kelso victory he does present himself as the one to beat.  

Cloth Cap at present carries 10-5 the last horse to win with that weight was Earth Summit back in 1998, he was also favourite but at 7-1 not as short as Jonjo O’Neill’s runner.

Seven of the last 40 Grand National winners have been clear or joint-favourites.  The most recent favourite to succeed was Tiger Roll in 2019 at 4-1, prior to that Don’t Push It was the 10-1 joint market leader when winning in 2010 with Big Fella Thanks who finished fourth. 

Since 2000 only 4 favourites have won Hedgehunter (2005), Comply or Die (2008), Don’t Push It (2010) and Tiger Roll (2019).

No favourite has started less than 7-2 since 1975 (Tiger Roll was 4-1 favourite when winning in 2019). Golden Miller was the shortest-priced Grand National favourite ever in 1935 going off at 2-1 but he unseated his rider.

Shortest-Priced winners that Cloth Cap could join should he oblige are Poethlyn 1919 at 11-4, Huntsman 1862 at 3-1 and Roquefort 1885 at 10-3.

His owner Trevor Hemmings already boasts three victories in the race and he hopes to become the most successful owner with either Cloth Cap, Lake View Lad or Deise Aba.

Eight winners since 1989 were Irish-trained and once again they have a strong hand, headed up by Any Second Now trained by Ted Walsh.  The trainer has a good record having won it with Papillon one of the biggest gambles in the race courtesy of Pricewise and watching his daughter Katie ride Seabass into third in 2012.

I really like Secret Reprieve but he is just 7 year’s old and that age group last win in the race was Bogskar in 1940.  Five of the last 30 winners were 8 years old. 25 of the last 30 winners were between 9 – 12 years old.  It’s cruel luck for Adam Wedge also as he is prevented from taking the ride due to injury which he announced on Twitter on Thursday 1 April.  We have seen super subs get a wonderful spare ride, Bindaree and Party Politics are two such examples where their regular riders where on the sidelines.

Grand National Runners

Only four of the last 30 winners carried 11-5 or more, only a few at present are allotted that weight but should Bristol De Mai come out that may be different. Many Clouds carried 11-9 to victory which was the heaviest burden since Red Rum raced round to win with 12stone in 1974.

Back to Bristol De Mai he would be only the fourth grey to oblige, most recent being Neptune Collonges in 2012.

I know a few like playing in the finishers market. Since 2000 there have been 15 or more finishers on 12 occasions, and 11 or more finishers on 18 occasions. In fact over the last ten years the average amount of finishers have been 16.8.

If you fancy a big outsider there have been five winners priced at 100-1, four at 66-1 and four at 50s, in that category should go Plan Of Attack, he was going exceptionally well in this year’s Kim Muir, of course I doubt he would have beaten Mount Ida but he may well have claimed a place. Should he get in despite his ugly form figures, do not discount.

The one issue for those with more letters in their form than numbers is 20 of the last 22 winners had fallen or unseated their rider no more than twice in their careers. Probably understandable that naturally good jumpers are rewarded over the spruce fences.

No horse has won the Becher Chase and gone on to win the National in the same season, but Clan Royal came closest in finishing second in 2003/2004. Just because of his course knowledge and we are all endeared to him Vieux Lion Rouge must have a massive chance of rectifying that. It would be ironic as his normal jockey Tom Scudamore is on the favourite Cloth Cap, someone is going to get a fantastic chance.

Rachel Blackmore ruled Cheltenham and it would be no surprise to see her conquer Aintree, having fallen at the 15th in 2018, she completed the course to be 10th on Valseur Lido in 2019, her mount is yet to be confirmed but she will be a popular choice to better Katie Walsh’s third on Seabass in 2012.  

I hope these might assist in you finding your selection and I’ll be making my final decisions in a column in a week’s time.  

Grand National Odds
Advert Disclaimer
Horseracing.net is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Horseracing.net accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.

100% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus + 25 Spins

#AD 18+ begambleaware.org; New bettors get 100% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; Free spins validity: 7 days; Free spins max. winnings = £100; See full terms; Terms apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. New customers using Promo code H30 only, Min £10/€10 stake,  min odds 1/2, free bets paid as 2 x £15/€15, free bets credited after  settlement of first qualifying bet, free bets will expire 30 days after  the qualifying bet is placed, payment method/player/country restrictions apply.
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. 18+. Min £10/€10 first deposit using Debit Card or Trustly. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5. Free bets expire in 90 days. Full T&Cs apply.
Welcome Offer
#AD Bet £10 & Get £50 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £60 in Bonuses
#AD New UK customers only. Register using the promo code BETFRED60, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £20 in Free Bets to be used on Sports, £10 in Free Bets to be used on Lotto and 50 Free Spins (20p per spin) credited within 48 hours of bet settlement. Further £20 in Free Bets credited 5 days after settlement. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £20 & Get It Back As CASH If It Loses
#AD New customers only. Place your FIRST bet on any Horse Racing market and if it loses we will refund your stake in CASH. Max refund for this offer is £20. Only deposits made using cards will qualify for this promotion. T&Cs apply.
Money Back As Cash Up To £20
#AD Max £20 refund on first bet. Bet must be placed in first 7 days of account opening. Only deposits made via Debit Card will be eligible for the promotion. T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD Minimum deposit of £10 using deposit code 30F - A qualifying bet is a ‘real money’ stake of at least £10 placed on any sports market - Minimum odds of 1/2 (1.5) - Free bets credited upon qualifying bet settlement and expire after 7 days - Free bet stakes not included in returns - Casino Bonus must be claimed within 7 days • To withdraw bonus/related wins, wager bonus amount x40 within 14 days • Wagering req. vary by game • Withdrawal restrictions and Full T&C’s apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £30 Free Bets
#AD Offer includes a free £1 Race Index spread bet to try out our exciting 50-25-10 race markets. Place a £10 fixed odds bet at minimum odds of 1/2. Get 2 x £10 free fixed odds bets + 2 x £5 free Winning Favourites spread bets. Bet with live streaming on all racing and greyhounds! Ts&Cs Apply. 18+ begambleaware.org
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD Min stake £10. Min odds 1/2 (1.5). First bet only. Free bets expire in 7 days. Cashed out bets won’t apply. Payment method restrictions. Online UK customers only. 30 days to qualify for £20 in Free Bets. 18+. T&Cs apply
£25 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £25 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins on Asgard Warriors. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only | BeGambleAware.org
Latest racing results
Chelmsford
20:30
1stThe Game Is On
2ndBlairlogie
3rdLetter Of The Law
Chelmsford
20:00
1stAlwajd
2ndLethal Touch
3rdDestinado
Chelmsford
19:31
1stSir Rodneyredblood
2ndAmasova
3rdBlue Venture
View All Today's Results