Grand National Trends 2022: Help picking the big race winner

Grand National Trends: Check the all important race trends when looking for a winner.
Grand National Trends: Check the all important race trends when looking for a winner.

With a maximum of 40 runners, it's rarely a straightforward task picking out the winner of the Grand National. We've done a bit of the homework for you based on a number of race trends pulled from the last 15 renewals.

By using those trends below you can see which horses in the 2022 Grand National tick the right boxes in having the profile to be a National winner and give you a better idea of who could win this year's race.

Picking a winner is not a science, but certain trends have occurred over the years which could help you draw up a shortlist of horses before deciding who to have your bet on. Our best advice would be to read the key below and then making an informed decision on which of the trends are the most important before making your selection.

Grand National odds

Grand National Trends Snapshot

  • There has been only two winners of the Grand National carrying more than 11st 5lbs since 1977, in 2012 with Neptune Collonges (11-6) and Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015. Tiger Roll won his second Grand National off 11st 5lbs exactly.
  • Tiger Roll was only the fifth horse since 1983 to carry more than 11st, the others were Don't Push It in 2010, Hedgehunter who carried 11-1 in 2005, Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2015 and Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015. Ballabriggs carried exactly 11st in 2011.
  • Since 1970 all the winners, bar Rule The World (2016) and Minella Times (2021) have had a win over three miles on the roll of honour
  • There has not been a winner of the Grand National under the age of eight for over 80 years.
  • 11 of the last 23 winners have jumped over the Grand National fences previously, not including Tiger Roll's first win where he had jumped the 'Aintree fence' in the Cheltenham Cross Country.
  • Irish trained runners have won 10 of the last 23 Grand Nationals.
  • 28 of the last 33 winners were ridden prominently from the outset of the second circuit.
  • 21 of the last 31 winners started in the first eight in the betting.
  • The previous year's Irish Grand National has been a key race in the form.
  • Check for previous Grand National form.
  • There has only been one Cheltenham Festival winner to have followed up in the Grand National since 1961. Tiger Roll achieved this twice back to back in 2018 and 2019.
  • There has only been three French-bred winners of the Grand National in the last 103 years, but three in the last ten years. Neptune Collonges in 2012, Mon Mome in 2009 and Pineau De Re in 2014.
Grand national tips

Key Grand National Trends

The last sixteen winners have been aged between 8 and 11. The last 12 year old to win the race was Amberleigh House in 2004. There hasn't been a 7 year old winner since 1940 or a 13 year old winner since 1894. The last six winners have been either 8 or 9.

Only six horses have carried more than 11st 5lbs to victory since 1945, so look to use that as a benchmark when picking a horse.

Stamina & Form
The Grand National is run over a gruelling 4 miles, and two and. a half furlongs. This is the longest race of the season and stamina is a must.

There is a growing trend for horses of a particular class to win the Grand National. With this in mind, look for horses who have won at least one race worth £29k to the winner.

All bar one of the last 15 winners had won either a class 1 or class 2 chase so if you want to drill further down to class use this as a barometer.

Recent Run
All of the last 14 winners had run at least three times in that season, so maybe look to rule out any horse who hasn't had three runs within that period.

Jumping is key over the Aintree fences and all bar one (Minella Times, 2021) of the last 14 winners had won a minimum of three times over fences before showing they can be good jumpers on their day.

The last 14 winners had bags of experience over jumps and had at least eight runs to their name.

The mark is the Official Rating given to a horse by the British Horse Racing Association and the handicap for the race is built around these ratings. The last 14 winners bar Tiger Roll's second win (159) have been rated between 136 and 157.

12 of the last 14 winners of the Grand National all ran within 53 days of the big race to ensure they were race fresh, last year's winner Minella Times (82 days) and One For Arthur the exceptions (84 days). 

All of the last 14 runners had previously won or placed in a chase with a minimum of 15 runners to show they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field.

Using all of the trends listed, see how you get on picking out potential winners from our Grand National runners page and we'll be back to update here once the final decs are in before the big race on Saturday 9th April.

Hindsight tells us every year that it is easy to select the winner of the Grand National, provided that one follows the very basic trends that have established themselves over the years.

We've compiled a list of the main trends from the last 12 years of the Grand National for you to use when searching out your Grand National bet. This isn't an exact science but it should help you create a shortlist.

Grand National runners
Advert Disclaimer is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.
Bet £10 Get £20 + £10 Casino Bonus
#AD New UK customers (Excluding NI) mobile only. £30 in FREE Bets (FB) as £20 in sports bets & a £10 casino bonus (CB). Min stake £10. Min odds Evs. FB applied on 1st settlement of any qualifying bet. FB 7 day expiry. 1 FB offer per customer, household & IP address only. Payment restrictions. 14 days to accept £10 CB, then active for 3 days. CB 5x wagering & max redeemable £100. Game restrictions apply. Cashed out/Free Bets won’t apply. 30 days to qualify. 18+. T&Cs apply
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets
#AD 18+. Play Safe. From 00:01 on 18.10.2022. £30 bonus, credited as 3x £10 bets. New customers only. Minimum £10 stake on odds of 1/2 (1.5) or greater on sportsbook (excluding Virtual markets). Further terms apply.
Money Back As A Bonus Up To £40 If Your First Racing Bet Loses + £10 casino
AD 18+ New customers only. Min deposit £10. Money back as bonus if first bet loses. Wagering requirements: sportsbook 3x at min. odds of 1.40 (2/5), casino 50x. Unless forfeited the sportsbook bonus must be wagered before using the casino bonus. Bonus expires 7 days after opt-in. No deposit required for NI customers. Call 08081699314 to claim. Full T&Cs apply.
Bet £10 Get £40 In Bonuses
#AD 18+ New customers only. Opt in and place a £10 bet on Horse Racing at odds of 2.00+ within 7 days of opening a new account; excludes cashed out bets. Receive 3x £10 Horse Racing Free Bets, valid on set events only at odds 2.00+. Plus, a £10 Slot Bonus, selected games, wager 20x to withdraw a max of £250. Bonuses expire in 7 days. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.
Bet £10 & Get Up To £50 in Free Bets
#AD New Customer Offer. Place a min £10 on Sportsbook on any Horse Racing, min. odds 2.0 (EVS) - get £10 in free bets, valid for 30 days. Repeat up to 5 times (max £50 in free bets). Only deposits via cards will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly.
Bet £10 & Get £30 In Free Bets
#AD 18+ New Customer offer. Place a min £10 bet on the Sportsbook on odds of min 1/2 (1.5), get £30 in Free Bets. Rewards valid for 30 days. SMS verification required. Only deposits via cards will qualify. T&Cs apply. Please Gamble Responsibly, .
100% Profit Boost
#AD Opt-in. Min. Odds Evs, Max. £10 stake, Max. additional profit £100. Skrill and Neteller deposits are not eligible 18+. Full T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly.
Welcome Offer
#AD New Customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets. Sign up, deposit between £5 and £10 to your account and bet365 will give you three times that value in Free Bets when you place qualifying bets to the same value and they are settled. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits. Min odds/bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. T&Cs, time limits & exclusions apply.
Bet £10 Get £20 In Free Bets
#AD. *New members. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of each-way bets only. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from acceptance (ex. each-way & multiple bets), stakes not returned. **Max Free Bet £10. Bet must be placed within 48hrs of 1st race each day - 1st cash bet on the 1st race each day of Cheltenham Festival (main market, ex antepost & specials). Win part e/w bet. Selection must lose. Free Bet: non-withdrawable, use in 7 days on sportsbook only. Stake not returned. Full T&C's apply. Bet Responsibly. 18+
Bet £10 get £20 in Free Bets
#AD 18+ New members only. £10 min deposit & bet on sportsbook, placed & settled at 1.5 min odds within 14 days of sign-up. Win part of E/W bets. 2 non-withdrawable £10 Free Bet Tokens: accept in 7 days, valid for 7 days from crediting (ex. E/Ws & Multiples), stakes not returned. T&Cs apply,
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
New 18+ UK customers only. Register using the promo code WELCOME40, deposit and place first bet of £10+ on Sports (cumulative Evens+) within 7 days of registration. First bet must be on Sports. £30 in Free Bets and £10 in Free Spins (50x20p) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Free Bet stakes are not included in any returns. Bonuses have a 7-day expiry. Payment restrictions apply. SMS verification and/or Proof of I.D and address may be required. Full T&Cs apply.
Double The Odds On Any UK Horse Race!
#AD 18+ Only valid for new registrations to Grosvenor Existing members do not qualify, Bet must be placed using real money in combination with the Odds Boost Token, Offer applies to Sport bets only. Max stake is £10. Each way bets are a maximum of £5 each way (£10 total). Customers have 60 days after registration to use the Odds Boost token. T&Cs apply.
£30 Matched Free Bet if Your First Acca Loses + 50 Bonus Spins
#AD 18+ New UK customers only. Min Deposit: £5. Maximum Free Bet: £30. First bet on a Football or Horse Racing multiple with 3+ selections. Overall odds: 3.00 (2/1) or higher. Free Bets available upon settlement of the qualifying bet. This is offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. 50 Bonus Spins credited on placement of qualifying Acca bet.50x bonus wagering applies as do weighting requirements, bonus Spins only available on selected games and expires 7 days after being awarded. Debit card deposits only (exclusions apply). 18+. Bet The Responsible Way. Full terms apply
Bet £10, Get £20 in Free Bets
#AD 18+, New customers only. Opt in, bet £10 on any sports (odds 2.00+) in 7 days. No cash out. Get 4x£5 sports free bets for set markets (odds 2.00+), which expire in 7 days. Offer is valid from 10:00 UK time on 16/01/2023. Card payments only. T&Cs Apply. | Please Gamble Responsibly
Bet £25 Get £50 In Bonuses
#AD Place a qualifying £25 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater and get £50 in bonuses 5 x £5 free fixed odds bets, 4 x free £5 spread bets + 50 free spins on Starburst. Qualifying bet cannot be placed in-play or cashed out early. T&Cs Apply. 18+
Bet £10 Get £30 in Free Bets (APP Only)
#AD New UK, IE & Malta customers only. Min £10/€10 first deposit using a Debit Card. Place a bet of £10 at min odds of 1.5 and get £10. A further £10 credited after 7 days and a further £10 credited after 14 days. 18+., T&Cs apply.
£35 Free Bet + 10 Free Spins
#AD If your account has Sportsbook losses at the end of your first day's betting, QuinnBet will refund 50% of your losses as a Free Bet up to £35 (min 3 bets) Plus 10 Free Spins. Even if your account is up, you're guaranteed a £5 Free Bet Plus 10 Free Spins provided you place at least 1 bet of £10 or greater at the minimum odds. T&Cs apply | 18+ New UK Customers Only |
50% Up To £50 Welcome Bonus
#AD 18+; New bettors get 50% of deposit up to £50; Once per household; Min deposit £15 (no Skrill/Neteller); Wager a total of 8 times deposit + bonus, with max qualifying bet stake equal to your initial bonus amount; Bonus expires after 60 days; Min odds of 4/5 on singles, or 2/5 per leg for acca; Some bet types excluded; See full terms.
Latest racing results
2ndRed Evelyn
2ndBetties Bay
3rdLegal Beat
Newton Abbot
1stSylvies Dance
3rdKylenoe Dancer
View All Today's Results