By Sean Morris

Tiz the Law set for Breeders' Cup Classic success

By Sean Morris
We like Tiz the Law in the Classic
We like Tiz the Law in the Classic

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The $6,000,000 Grade I Breeders' Cup Classic is Race 12 on the card for Keeneland this Saturday as the Breeders' Cup World Championships. Below is our Race Card with all the Morning Line odds and links to our betting partners BetAmerica, TVG and TwinSpires where you can join today and take advantage of their excellent sign-up offers for new customers.

Underneath you'll find our race preview written by our in-house handicapper and originally published here on HorseRacing.net as part of his Breeders' Cup Saturday Picks column...

Breeders' Cup Classic 2020

8

Improbable

  • Age: 4 /
  • Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. /
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert /
Morning Line Odds
2

Tiz the Law

  • Age: 3 /
  • Jockey: Manny Franco /
  • Trainer: Barclay Tagg /
Morning Line Odds
10

Maximum Security

  • Age: 4 /
  • Jockey: Luis Saez /
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert /
Morning Line Odds
4

Tom's d'Etat

  • Age: 7 /
  • Jockey: Joel Rosario /
  • Trainer: Al Stall Jr. /
Morning Line Odds
9

Authentic

  • Age: 3 /
  • Jockey: John Velazquez /
  • Trainer: Bob Baffert /
Morning Line Odds
3

By My Standards

  • Age: 4 /
  • Jockey: Gabriel Saez /
  • Trainer: Bret Calhoun /
Morning Line Odds
1

Tacitus

  • Age: 4 /
  • Jockey: Jose Ortiz /
  • Trainer: Bill Mott /
Morning Line Odds
6

Higher Power

  • Age: 5 /
  • Jockey: Flavien Prat /
  • Trainer: John Sadler /
Morning Line Odds
7

Global Campaign

  • Age: 4 /
  • Jockey: Javier Castellano /
  • Trainer: Stanley Hough /
Morning Line Odds
5

Title Ready

  • Age: 5 /
  • Jockey: Corey Lanerie /
  • Trainer: Dallas Stewart /
Morning Line Odds

Race 12 (Classic)

This is one of the best Classics in recent memory, with an intriguing mix of up-and-coming 3-year-olds and some established veterans, all of whom are legitimately fast. A discussion of the Classic should probably begin with the likely favorite, Improbable (#8). I’m not completely against this horse, but it does feel like he might be a bit of a trap as the favorite. After struggling with consistency as a sophomore, he’s really put it all together at 4. He began his year with a solid runner-up finish in the Oaklawn Mile and has since rattled off three straight open-length victories in Grade 1 races that have earned him Beyer Speed Figures in excess of 105. The trouble with Improbable is that he got candy trips in each one of those races. He was beating up on a weak field in the Gold Cup, sat just off a glacial pace in the Whitney, and got a perfect setup last out in the Awesome Again. While that’s partially a testament to his versatile running style, and he figures to work out a good trip again because of it, I think this race is a serious litmus test for him and I prefer others as ‘main’ plays.

The other two Bob Baffert runners need to be discussed, as well, though I don’t think either has as good a chance as Improbable. Maximum Security (#10) is the one that will probably take more money, but if you’ve read my analysis throughout this year you’ll already know I have an acute distaste for him. I thought he actually ran quite well last out in the Awesome Again as he tracked a ludicrous early pace and held fairly well in the stretch, but, as strange as this is to say, he’s just not been the same horse since being transferred to Baffert earlier this year, though he routinely gets bet like he’s still capable of the brilliance we saw in 2019. Instead, I prefer Authentic (#9) as a preferred backup and will be using on equal footing with Improbable. Authentic was another I didn’t think much of until his surprise Kentucky Derby win, and even then I wasn’t sure if it was a complete aberration. Even though he lost, he proved in the Preakness that his Derby was for real, and I like that he showed a willingness to sit just off the pace.

All of this brings me to my top two choices in this race, Tom’s d’Etat (#4) and Tiz the Law (#2), who I believe will be the biggest overlays. I’ll be stunned if the former ends up going off near his 6-1 morning-line odds. Earlier in the year Tom’s d’Etat was pretty much the consensus choice to win this race, and I don’t see why that should’ve changed based on his last race in the Whitney. After a disastrous beginning that left him well behind the field, he had absolutely zero chance to win given the way the pace unfolded, and it was somewhat heroic that he was able to finish within three lengths of Improbable. The fairly lengthy layoff is somewhat of a concern with him, but if he returns in the same form that saw him capture the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in dominant fashion, I believe he’s going to win this race.

The only horse I really think has a shot to beat Tom’s d’Etat at his best is Tiz the Law. He really doesn’t have much of an excuse for his defeat in the Derby, however I’m not sure he fired his best shot that day. As we saw one race prior in the Travers, this guy is capable of incredible things. That win was very reminiscent of Tom’s d’Etat’s Stephen Foster score and actually earned him an identical Beyer of 109. Tiz the Law’s connections elected to bypass the Preakness to bring a fresh horse to the Classic, and it feels like their patience could pay off in spades if he returns with a top effort.

Main:  2,4     Backup (priority):  8,9

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Get up to $250 in bonus funds

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Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +