Belmont Park Picks & Analysis for May 22

A wonderful stretch of weather in the Northeast is set to continue on Saturday, which is good news for a Belmont card heavy on turf races. As usual, our in-house handicapper has taken the liberty of making picks for every races to along with analysis of his strongest opinions throughout the day.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Saturday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner:  Love and Thunder (Race 4) - There are a couple of contenders in this first-level allowance race, but none in my opinion that can rival Love and Thunder as she makes her second start in this country for trainer Chad Brown. Her first start in the U.S. was a bit of an odd placement as she had been strictly a miler overseas for John Gosden, but she ran quite well considering going six furlongs at Aqueduct despite some early trouble. I think she’s going to very much appreciate the stretch-out to a mile here, and with any forward move should be able to beat this group.

Best Value:  Olympic Runner (Race 9) - The uncoupled Chad Brown entry looks formidable in the featured Seek Again, however I have to give Olympic Runner the nod as he looks to avenge a poor placing in the Elusive Quality over this turf course. Despite that underwhelming result, Olympic Runner had little chance to make an impact in the Elusive Quality given the pace, and circumstances should be different this time around. A one-turn mile strikes me as the absolute perfect configuration for this horse, and in fact he finished a close fourth in last year’s G1 Woodbine Mile under the same kind of conditions, so I believe he’s highly likely to outrun his odds.

Other Races of Interest:  Race 2 - It’s impossible to trust Caribbean Gold (#6) as he returns for a tag off a long layoff, which is why I’m instead siding with Prince of Caps (#4). His last two turf races don’t look like much, but I think you can at least forgive his last since it came over a very soft turf course at Aqueduct and was his first start of the year. He should be tighter with that one under his belt, and if he can get back to the race he ran here on June 5 of 2020, he’s going to have a big chance.

Race 3 - She was scratched out of a spot earlier in the meet on dirt, but I have to keep the faith with Madera (#6), especially at her juicy 15-1 morning-line odds. This filly showed nothing last out on turf for her new trainer Jesse Weinlein, however prior to that she’d been rock solid on dirt. Many are going to be completely deterred by the presence of Weinlein, but this filly has bounced around a fair bit already in her young career and has run well regardless of circumstance. If she repeats the effort we saw from her two back at Aqueduct, she’s going to be very live in this spot at a big price.

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*