Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint Picks: Averly Jane and Hierarchy Tops the List

The only Grade II on the Breeders' Cup slate gets the action under way on Friday as the Juvenile Turf Sprint is slated as Race 6 on the card.

Our man J.N. is out at Del Mar and will be handicapping the action from California whilst our I'm stuck at HR.net Towers.

We both have thoughts on the race as written out below and you can bet with any of our partners via the Odds Grid and take advantage of any of the sign-up offers from AMWager, BetAmerica, TVG and TwinSpires...

Neil's Take...

When handicapping any race the first thing I look for is who is the fastest horse in said race. The second thing I look at is who have they beaten? If I find that the fastest horse also has beaten the strongest competition then I’m going to need to find a reason not to make them my top pick. This is extremely pertinent in the first BC race of the day.

The Wesley Ward trained Averly Jane (#8) has just flat out dominated all her competition so far - on both dirt and turf. Last time out she took on the boys in the Indian Stakes at Keeneland and won without being remotely challenged. This was her first race on the turf and she certainly took to it with aplomb.

If she doesn’t win then Wesley Ward still has the best shot with Twilight Gleaming (#6). I liked what I saw from her over at Royal Ascot where she was beaten only by Quick Suzy - who would’ve been a contender in this race had she not been scratched due to spiking a temperature following her trip from the UK. One Timer (#9) is undefeated and will challenge Averly Jane for the lead early.

I’m not going to overthink this one. Whilst two other horses look capable of defeating the favorite - give me Averly Jane.

Main: 8

Backup: 6, 9

Order of Preference: 8-6-9-1

J.N.'s Take...

The Friday purple/white extravaganza gets rolling with this grass mowing speed game at 5F. Drop everything … don’t blink because it will be over before you know it. I have several opinions when it comes to a winner in this spot, but tops on my list is Hugo Palmer’s Hierarchy #5. This son of Mehmas (IRE), a versatile sire, has some major upside after a near-miss at Newbury back in mid-September. I see him progressing well, and he will get the more than capable Oisin Murphy. In that last race, he actually led at the 5F marker, so possibly this distance will suit him perfectly.

Let’s not turn a blind eye to some of the American-based runners … namely, Wesley Ward’s Averly Jane #8 certainly looks the part. Ward gets them ready in droves, and he must be respected on this surface and at this distance. With Tyler Gafflione, these connections are priming the pump for a “win.” Moving right along, One Timer #9 from the barn of Larry Rivelli looks like just the feel-good story we need in horse racing. The gelding can run, and it is truly wonderful to see jockey E.T. Baird get his due. A longtime rider in this business, he can win his 1st BC race … what an icing that would be on his cake!

I am also keen to use a couple of long shots like Derrynane #11 and Run Curtis Run #12. The former is a Christophe Clement runner, and should be considered dangerous after he won nicely up at Woodbine. With Joel Rosario aboard, this daughter of Quality Road could be peaking at the right time as she takes on the boys. Last, but not least, is Mike Maker’s intriguing runner. If Luis Saez can angle the deflector shields, then he might have a chance to get to the lead. I think that probably has to happen, if he wants to get this son of Summer Front home 1st in the end.  

Leaving out both Twilight Gleaming #6 and Armor #7 could be a major mistake … they both look promising based on their form. Coming from strong barns can make all the difference. If you can afford it … I certainly would.

Top Selection: 5

Under: 8/9