Churchill Downs Picks: Turf sprinters will try to catch Ward's Twilight Gleaming on May 14

The featured Mamzelle Overnight S. on the new Matt Winn Turf Course brings together a large group of sprinters. Who wins? Check out our free picks, plus analysis below ...
The featured Mamzelle Overnight S. on the new Matt Winn Turf Course brings together a large group of sprinters. Who wins? Check out our free picks, plus analysis below ...

Churchill Downs Picks - Saturday, May 14, 2022

  • Race 1: 5-1/1A-3-4
  • Race 2: 1-5-7-6
  • Race 3: 6-3-8-5
  • Race 4: 6-1-4-2
  • Race 5: 1-4-2-6
  • Race 6: 7-2-1/1A-6
  • Race 7: 1-7-4-8
  • Race 8: 3-6-2-4
  • Race 9: 6-5-9-2
  • Race 10: 7-3-5-1
  • Race 11: 11-3-12-5
  • **Most Likely: Foliage #6 (Race 3)**
  • **Best Value: Grapnel #3 (Race 8)**

Churchill Downs once again put on quite a fete ... it was a splendid running of the Kentucky Derby last Saturday! If you did not see Rich Strike roll, then you you missed out on quite a spectacle. The colt by Keen Ice stumped most everyone, winning at odds of 80/1. Now, the rest of the Meet begins to unfold as it is set to run through the July 4th holiday.

Today, an 11-race card is coming your way (be sure to check out the return of jockey Sonny Leon in Race 2 for Eric Reed)! One of the features this summer is the new Matt Winn Turf Course, which opens with a brand new sodded surface. Should be fun, and make for some excellent wagering opportunities.

At we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter ... Horseracing_USA !!!

Horse Racing Picks

Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Foliage #6, 3/1):

I have serious doubts that Al Stall’s gelding by Speightstown will be 3/1, when this race goes-off on Saturday. Dare to dream … I like this turf sprinter because he made a nice jump into tough ALLW Co. last time out at Keeneland. His prior experience at Ellis Park and at the Fair Grounds was against maiden company. He looks fit enough, and it is about time that ‘cappers start respecting the ability of Colby Hernandez. Knowing your mount’s tendencies can go a long way towards victory … he gets the job in this spot.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #6


Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Grapnel #3, 6/1):

Looking over this Churchill Saturday card, I am after a moderately-priced horse that can work out a nice trip for the win. Trainer Ron Moquett is an excellent horseman, and this ridgling by Anchor Down happens to be owned by Louis Cella. If you are not familiar with his name, then you probably do not know much about Oaklawn Park. He owns it … In a pair of career races, Moquett’s sprinter did not do all that poorly against MSW-sorts. Those were tough contests in Hot Springs, and dropping into this spot should suit this one just fine. With the addition of Tyler Gaffalione, I would expect him to win nicely. Moquett always has his horses ready … this is what he was born to do.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)


Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 5F, Mamzelle Overnight S., $160k, 3F):

The “feature” on this card is a turf sprint that can be interpreted 1 of 2 ways … Either you think Wesley Ward’s Twilight Gleaming #5 is the odds-on winner, or she is vulnerable, and worth trying to beat. I am in the latter camp, and think that with the right wager, there is money to be made. What we know is that Ward is extremely tough in situations like these, but lest we forget, his filly by National Defense (GB) was bested last time out at his home court (Keeneland) in the Palisades $200k. The ground had a touch of “give” that day, but more importantly, she just could not hold onto the lead with Irad Ortiz aboard. She could be looking for some payback, as Tyler Gaffalione takes over the riding duties. I am going to take the entire field over her, and then roll them underneath to finish out a Trifecta Wheel. Hopefully, a big shot, like Rey Hernandez’s Sunday Grace #6 will best the Stonestreet ace … you never know how turf sprints are going to turn out. In situations like these, it can payoff to be creative, so let’s roll the dice, taking Ward on … What a conditioner! Much respect …

Wagering Recommendation: Trifecta Wheel, 1/2/3/4/6/7/8/9/10/11/12 w 5 w 1/2/3/4/6/7/8/9/10/11/12


Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of luck on another run at Churchill Downs!

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