Gulfstream Park Picks & Analysis for March 6
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A trio of ungraded stakes races headline a fantastic day of racing at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. For the occasion our in-house handicapper has made picks for the whole card, with select analysis of a few of the races, including two of the stakes races.
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Most Likely Winner: Roderick (Race 8) - The 92 Beyer Speed Figure Roderick earned for his last race seems phony — after all, it came going five furlongs on the main track at Churchill Downs while Roderick was still a 2-year-old — yet upon closer examination it appears to be perfectly legitimate. If he runs back to that effort as he makes his 3-year-old debut there’s no one in this race capable of getting within shouting distance of him, and even his prior performance in the Nyquist at Keeneland would make him very tough to beat. The only concern I have is that his connections are aiming rather low with this horse considering how good his last two races are, but that’s just a small quibble.
Best Value: Feeling Mischief (Race 11) - There is absolutely no one in this race I trust, so why not shoot for a bigger price with Feeling Mischief despite some consistency issues. When she’s on her game, as she was in her debut and three starts ago, when she took the Sandpiper over subsequent stakes winner Gulf Coast, this filly is a pretty darn good sprinter. Both of those races would give her a big chance here, and while there’s no guarantee she gets back to that level of performance, her odds should be inviting. I expect her to drift up from her 6-1 morning line and offer solid value in this race.
Other Races of Interest: Race 1 - Caramel Swirl (#1) has been beaten at odds-on in each of her last two starts, and this seems like another good spot to take a shot against her as she makes her turf debut despite little pedigree for the surface. I think Stunning Princess (#3) is a more likely winner. This filly ran reasonably well as a juvenile in some tougher spots and there are a number of factors that point to her improving here, including the addition of blinkers, re-addition of Lasix, and the fact she’s making her first start at Gulfstream for the unstoppable Danny Gargan barn. If she moves forward at all off her 2-year-old form, she’s going to be formidable.
Race 12 - I’ve been chasing Charlie the Greek (#10) in his past few starts to no avail, but this feels like the right spot for him. This horse is as honest as they come and should really appreciate the drop in class to 6.25k after contesting some much tougher Florida-bred allowance races. Although his first race off the claim for Joe Cantanese, who has had this horse before and done really well with him, was pretty dismal, his last start was a sneaky step in the right direction considering he was up against a rail bias. In start number three for Cantanese, I’m expecting him to stir the echoes and beat these bottom-level claimers.
*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*
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