Gulfstream Park Picks: Beach Traffic a live longshot in Race 7

One of only a few tracks running on a holiday Sunday, Gulfstream Park closes out the week with a strong 10-race card. For the occasion, our in-house handicapper has made picks for the whole program and has additionally provided detailed analysis of his strongest opinions throughout the day.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Sunday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Race 1

My top pick in this race, Marsac (#9), is far from what you’d call a value play (unless of course he goes off at his morning-line odds of 6-5). He’s a horse I consider to be virtually unbeatable in this spot if he repeats his last race, which came against a far better field of 16k maiden claimers, and I see no reason to believe he won’t run back to that effort.

Instead, I think the value lies underneath Marsac in the day’s opener. Chevale Dore (#6) is probably going to be a clear second choice in the wagering, but that’s primarily due to the name brand of his trainer Victor Barboza, Jr., and he hasn’t done anything on the track to warrant that status. I much prefer Trinni Summer (#3) as an exacta option to pair with Marsac. This guy comes from a much smaller outfit than Cheval Dore, but his last race is far better than anything we’ve seen from that one. The two horses that beat Trinni Summer last time, Work Ethic and Loyal Louie are decent turf sprinters, and there was a chasm behind Trinni Summer back to the fourth-place finisher. I think that race is probably a little faster than it was given credit for, but even if you take it at face value Trinni Summer is a very likely contender for second.

Race 6

This one also doesn’t fall under the usual ‘value play’ umbrella, however I thought it worthwhile to highlight Big Band Luziann (#4) as she drops out of the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa Bay Downs into a much softer Florida-bred allowance spot. This filly was a surprise winner first out over this turf course on February 3 over two next-out winners, and while she regressed speed figure-wise in the Florida Oaks, I thought it was a very promising effort. Big Band Luziann showed far more speed in that spot than she did in her first start, chasing the talented 3-year-old filly Jouster through quick splits before understandably fading in the stretch. Needless to say she’s getting a ton of class relief here and her newfound early speed will give Angel Arroyo plenty of options as she cuts back to 7 ½ furlongs. If she ends up around her 5-2 morning-line odds, which, like Marsac in Race 1 are probably a pipe dream, she actually would be a strong play. Either way she’s one you want to lean on if you’re playing the Pick 5.

Race 7

With some short-priced recommendations out of the way, we finally get to a more traditional value play in Race 7 in the form of Beach Traffic (#2). This horse made steady strides throughout his 3-year-old campaign in 2020, and while his debut this year was a disaster on the Gulfstream main track, he bounced back in a big way on turf in his last start as he was checked at the break and completely stymied in the stretch. Beach Traffic appeared to be making a nifty, winning move in that spot before encountering significant trouble, and he was even able to muster a mild rally afterwards in the final sixteenth of the race. With a clean trip I believe he would’ve won, so the fact he’s listed at 12-1 on the morning line against a comparable group is quite alluring.

As much as I like Beach Traffic, I do have to acknowledge that Big Man Bob (#5) is a very likely winner in his own right. He’s actually dropping in class for this race and has run well on two occasions at Gulfstream this year. I think both of those efforts are better than they look, particularly last out when he pressed a rapid early pace and held well to be third, and his early speed is going to make him dangerous yet again.

Race 10

The morning line is probably off again in this race, but if Come Storming (#10) is going to vie for favoritism at around 7-2 there should be plenty of value to go around. This filly is coming out of some much weaker spots and departing the barn of Mike Maker, a trainer from whom it’s almost impossible to improve a turf horse. I think morning-line favorite Una Luna (#8) makes more sense as she’s revived her career at the age of 6, but she, too, strikes me as vulnerable in this race at a short price.

If Katama Moonlight (#1) is truly going to be a bigger price than either of these two, she’s one I think you have to take very seriously. This filly ran a decent field of maiden special weights off their feet in her last start, and given her abundant early speed the cutback to 7 ½ furlongs should be right up her alley. Her high cruising speed is going to play very well at this distance and she’s simply a strong contender.

Since I have a feeling Katama Moonlight is going to be much shorter than her morning line, I believe the real value lies with Furia Vikinga (#9) in the finale. A Chilean transplant trained by Amador Sanchez, Furia Vikinga has been a revelation on turf in her last two starts and I don’t think the Beyer Speed Figures she’s earned have fully captured her ability. She ran really well behind next-out winner Toffen two back in her first try on turf in the U.S., and last out she followed it up with another solid performance at this level as she rallied strongly through some traffic in the stretch. Whereas Katama Moonlight will probably get bet down off her morning line, I think Furia Vikinga could drift up based on her recent speed figures, even though I believe she’s the most talented runner in this race.

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*