By Sean Morris

Keeneland Horse Racing Analysis for April 7

By Sean Morris
Keeneland gets the week started with an eight-race card on Wednesday
Keeneland gets the week started with an eight-race card on Wednesday

Keeneland is a little short on entries but not so on excitement on Wednesday, with eight diverse races to choose from. As part of the ongoing Keeneland Battle Series, our in-house handicapper has made picks for the whole card and has additionally provided his best value plays of the day.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Wednesday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Horse Racing Picks

This isn’t the best Keeneland card you’re ever going to see, but there are two intriguing maiden special weight races on turf for 3-year-old fillies, starting with this one that kicks off the Pick 6. You can make a case for pretty much every runner in this field, which is why I’m going with longshot Mulsanne (#1) as my top pick. This filly was essentially given a race in her debut on March 6 at Gulfstream Park. She broke a bit slow and was shuffled to the back of the pack while appearing to have more speed to show, and from there she was given an education by jockey Corey Lanerie, who seemed to deliberately run her through traffic in the stretch. Mulsanne finished well under the circumstances, and I’m expecting a much better effort from her this time around as her trainer Rusty Arnold likely had a Keeneland spot for her in mind all along. I also think she’s going to show more speed here and the distance should be no problem for her. At 10-1 on the morning line in a race with so many fillies of questionable merit, she’s the day’s ‘Best Value’ play.

I like Mulsanne quite a bit, but if Laynlomakndough (#6) slips through the cracks at all in the wagering I think she also deserves serious consideration. This filly’s debut at Gulfstream was perhaps even more promising than Mulsanne’s as she finished a solid fourth against a better group, and she should move forward here as nothing was expected of her first out since she was sent off at 43-1. With any improvement at all she’s going to be a major player.


Race 5

The other maiden special weight turf race has plenty to like value-wise, as well. There aren’t as many vulnerable short prices as there are in Race 3, but I do think a couple of fillies are much better than they appear on paper in this spot. My top pick is Salit (#4), who gets back on turf after a pair of disappointing main-track efforts. Given how well this filly ran in her debut on grass, I’m surprised her connections stuck with dirt for even that long. A daughter of sensational turf sire American Pharoah, Salit got off to a disastrous beginning in her first start, spotting the field more than a dozen lengths on the Gulfstream turf, and despite a tepid pace she made a sustained, wide rally around the far turn and came within 1 ¼ lengths of victory. The race didn’t come back terribly fast, however it got a boost when Joy of Painting came back to finish second in the G3 Herecomesthebride and runner-up No Ordinary Time broke her maiden in her next start. Furthermore, Salit ran like a filly who will relish every bit of a mile and an eighth, and that performance is especially noteworthy considering her trainer Ken McPeek often gives his horses a race. All signs point to this one being very live if she reverts back to her turf form.

Depending on price, the other filly I would strongly consider is Never Content (#6). I’m a little worried that she’s going to get bet heavily because her last-out trouble was so obvious, but you can nonetheless draw a line through that effort as she was shuffled badly leaving the far turn and in upper stretch. Her prior race at Gulfstream isn’t anything special, but it did come behind top 3-year-old filly turfer Jouster and she ran reasonably well. It’s tough to tell exactly how much closer she would’ve finished in her last start, but she’s no doubt capable of much better and the top three from that race are all quality fillies. If she ends up around her 8-1 morning-line odds she’d have some appeal.


Race 8

The finale is a crazy race to close things out with, and one in which I have little interest in any of the likely favorites. High Five Cotton (#4) is the shortest price on the morning line, and he’s one I want no part of as he ships in from Tampa Bay Downs. This horse’s form has been tailing off recently for trainer Jose Delgado, who dominates at Tampa, and I just don’t see him bouncing back in this spot as he’s also very questionable at this distance.

Ike (#6) and Diddley (#9) make a little more sense to me, however the former is coming back on short rest after bombing at Oaklawn Park in his last start, while the latter is shipping in from Aqueduct Racetrack following some so-so efforts. Either of these two can win, but they’re completely untrustworthy and are going to take a good deal of money.

To me, the two plays in this race are veteran dirt runner Stay Home (#3) and Fevola (#1a), who I wish wasn’t part of a coupled entry as it’s going to hurt his price. It’s been a long time since he’s won, but Stay Home is a 10-time winner and has been running well lately for trainer Rick Hiles, who removed blinkers from this horse three starts ago. I don’t love that his lone effort over this track was a dull one, however he’s coming out of races at Mahoning Valley that are at least comparable to this one, and I think that form is going to translate here. Despite relatively strong recent races, I have a feeling he’s going to get ignored a bit in the wagering.

Fevola, meanwhile, gets back to sprinting after fading badly going 1 1/16 miles in the mud at Oaklawn Park in his last race. This horse clearly has his issues, but all of his dirt sprints would give him a big chance here, and I wouldn’t completely count his stablemate Long On Luck (#1) out of it since he does have some back class on this surface.

 

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*

Horse Racing Results
Sean's Keeneland 2021 Results
  • Date
  • Daily Winners / Places
  • Daily Biggest Winner / Place
  • Daily $
  • Overall $

Date

  • April 2
  • April 3
  • April 7
  • April 8
  • April 9
  • April 10
  • April 11
  • April 14
  • April 15

Daily Winners / Places

  • 3 Win / 6 Place
  • 3 Win / 5 Place
  • 4 Win / 5 Place
  • 4 Win / 6 Place
  • 2 Win / 5 Place
  • 4 Win / 5 Place
  • 3 Win / 3 Place
  • 3 Win / 4 Place
  • 0 Win / 3 Place

Daily Biggest Winner / Place

  • $10.20 (Win - R7)
  • $8.60 (Place - R7)
  • $13.00 (Win - R8)
  • $38 (Win R8)
  • $18.20 (Place - R5)
  • $14.40 (Win - R1)
  • $6.80 (Win - R8)
  • $13.00 (Win - R5)
  • $16.20 (Place - R1)

Daily $

  • $35.80
  • $39.60
  • $46.00
  • $77.40
  • $44.20
  • $55.80
  • $21.80
  • $38.20
  • $21.80

Overall $

  • $35.80
  • $75.40
  • $121.40
  • $198.80
  • $243.00
  • $298.80
  • $320.60
  • $358.80
  • $379.60

Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses

New Customers Only,21 +

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +
Up to $500 bonus cash back
T&Cs apply,21+,State Restrictions
Advert Disclaimer
Horseracing.net is a free online resource which endeavour to provide helpful and useful content and odds comparison to its visitors. Please be advised that Horseracing.net accepts affiliate commission from the companies appearing on the site, and agreed commission levels impact the location and order in which the companies (and/or their products) are presented on the website. Any ratings that appear on this site is determined by our subjective opinion of the brand but also based on market share and reputation, each brand's conversion rates, commission paid to us and general consumer interest. Company listings on this page don't imply our endorsement. We do not feature all providers on the market. Except as expressly set forth in our terms and conditions, all statements and warranties regarding the information presented on this page are disclaimed. The information, including odds, which appear on this site is subject to change at any time.