Keeneland Picks: Last 3 days of the meet begins on April 27
Keeneland Picks - Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Race 1: 1-5-3-2
Race 2: 5-3-6-1
Race 3: 2-4-1-3
Race 4: 5-1-7-11
Race 5: 3-9-1-2
Race 6: 12-11-5-2
Race 7: 5-3-1-5
Race 8: 9-4-5-10
**Most Likely: Saffron Moon #9 (Race 8)**
**Best Value: Beautiful Farewell #3 (Race 5)**
Keeneland enters its final week of racing for the April Meet. With 3 days left, you do not want to miss any of the action. As usual, Tyler Gaffalione (jockey), and Wesley Ward (trainer), sit atop the standings, but Irad Ortiz, Brad Cox, and Chad Brown are giving chase in their respective categories. Should be a fun one to watch as we close out another great experience at historic Keeneland!
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 8: Saffron Moon #9, 5/1):
On the turf at Keeneland we have a good group of maiden fillies (3 and 4-yr-olds) that will be going up against one another around 2-turns. I want to play Chad Brown’s lay-off entry because he has exceptional numbers in spots like these. A daughter of Malibu Moon, she cut her teeth on the track at Saratoga and Belmont back in August-September-October … With more maturity to her credit, she should be ready to start her campaign. Brown is using this spot as a tune-up, with more to comes as the season develops. I am sure he has plans for her … With Flavien Prat aboard, I think she will be the one at the wire.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #9
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Beautiful Farewell #3, 12/1):
The Turfway shippers to Central Kentucky get lost in the Keeneland shuffle. It might have to do with bettors' concerns about them sometimes making the switch from the Tapeta to the dirt. I like this one from Robert Medina’s stable because here is a filly by Frosted that is dropping out of MSW Co. She hasn’t run all that poorly for this barn, and this might be the spot to back her. Against this field, which includes some 1st time starters, she might be catching this group at the right time. Florent Geroux is a jockey upgrade to say the least, and if she can get close or on the lead, then she has a shot. Boxcar price on the tote at Keeneland? Yes, please …
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW120kn2x, 4+):
Taking to the Haggin Turf Course, it should be pretty firmed up after a weekend of no rain. I would advise checking the conditions and the placement of the temporary rail, which could be “out.” We shall see … Whatever comes our way, I am intrigued by this race because it has a good field of 12, plus a trio of AEs. I do not think that Eddie Kenneally’s Point Me By #11 is going to be anywhere near 6/1 come post time, because this barn is hot, and Luis Saez is piloting a colt by Point of Entry that is dropping out of the G3 Fair Grounds S. He is going to take money, and that will drive his price down. I am sure that Brian Lynch’s Skyro #5 is also worth a look not only because the gelding by Verrazano gets leading rider Tyler Gaffalione, but also because this is one of those Gulfstream invaders. The 4-yr-old comes in sharp when it comes to form, and if he gets a solid break from the gate, rating close to the frontend, then he has a major chance to win. I am going to take a shot against both of these entries, because I am a major fan of Mark Casse’s Palazzi #12. I saw this colt as a 3-yr-old get-up just in time to win the Texas Mile $200k at Sam Houston, and he has built some very nice class lines since. Even though he missed the board in his ’22 debut @FG in an OC40kn2x, this should be a great opportunity to bet a well-bred runner owned by John Oxley. Based on his latest work tab at Churchill, I think Casse had the choice of this race, or one under the Twin Spires on their new Matt Winn lawn. Opting for Keeneland tells me that he thinks he can grab a score. The addition of Florent Geroux is welcome, and I like the price at double-digit odds. Here is the bet …
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 12 w 5/11 w 5/11
Enjoy another wonderful afternoon trackside! Best of luck on another run at historic Keeneland! Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter … Horseracing_USA !!!