Tampa Bay Downs Picks & Analysis for March 3

Tampa Bay Downs is back in action on Wednesday with a nine-race card, though turf racing could be in jeopardy with some rain in the forecast. Our in-house handicapper has made picks for every race and provided select analysis of the races there.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Wednesday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner:  Ballet School (Race 6) - With just five others to deal with and none of them having distinguished themselves yet, Ballet School appears to be in prime position to graduate from the maiden ranks in Race 6. This Kinsman Farm homebred filly, whose bloodlines scream two-turn racing, was probably given a race in her debut when she went 6 ½ furlongs over this track. That start went about the way you would expect for a filly with such a stamina-laden pedigree as she lagged well off the early pace and finished strong with a belated run to get third. I’m expecting big improvement from her in this spot, but even if that doesn’t come to fruition as she stretches out in distance she’s still a formidable foe based on the speed figure she earned in her unveiling.

Best Value:  Ball Lightning (Race 7) - The forecast is a little murky for Wednesday at Tampa so there’s a chance this race comes off the turf, but the beauty of this pick is that Ball Lightning should be fine on either surface. Successful Legacy is going to attract the bulk of the attention for trainer Gerald Bennett, however I’m quite dubious of the Beyer she earned in her last start and I don’t believe she’s as good as she looks. Ball Lightning, on the other hand, earned a paltry figure on turf two back that in retrospect is probably much better than it appears, and she even moved forward on dirt in her latest outing. I think we’re going to see a much-improved performance from her as she makes her first start for Darien Rodriguez in a protected spot.

Other Races of Interest:  Race 5 - If this race remains on the turf, I really like the chances of Food and Wine (#6). This horse has been running against much better competition at Tampa lately and his abundant early speed is going to make him tough for this field to catch. If he ends up anywhere near his 7-2 morning-line odds he’d be a strong play, though as usual at Tampa that’s probably a fantasy.

Race 9 - I can’t help but go back to Dazzling Truths (#5) in the finale, who I loved in his last race at this level. I thought this horse would greatly appreciate the class relief he got last time, and while that did prove to be the case he came up a length short in the end against a comparable group. He didn’t get the most comfortable of trips in that spot, however, and he should be able to show more early speed this time around. I think he’s the best horse in this race and if he does attain a more forward position early I believe he’s going to win.

*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can do so on our Results page linked to below*