By J.N. Campbell

Aqueduct Late Pick-4 Picks & Analysis for 21 November

By J.N. Campbell
Aqueduct has an excellent card for Saturday, capped by the Red Smith (G3) on the turf.
Aqueduct has an excellent card for Saturday, capped by the Red Smith (G3) on the turf.

Aqueduct Exacta Insurance

Opt-in & get up to $10 back on your exacta if your horses finish in the top three but your bet loses at Aqueduct on Fridays through December 18th. T&Cs apply.

  • Aqueduct Picks

Aqueduct Picks

  • Race 1: 5-3-4-2
  • Race 2: 9-6-3-10
  • Race 3: 9-2-1-7
  • Race 4: 5-3-7-1
  • Race 5: 10-5-2-7
  • Race 6: 8-2-4-6
  • Race 7: 8-9-6-2
  • Race 8: 5-7-6-8
  • Race 9: 8-9-10-4
  • Race 10: 8-3-2-6
  • Most Likely Winner: Race 6: Freedomofthepress #8
  • Live Longshot Play: Race 4: Winning Factor #9

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+

Welcome to a Saturday Aqueduct card! It looks like it will be a partly cloudy day @58 degrees for the high; a nice card is ahead of us! Let’s have a look at the Late Pick 4 sequence (1 on dirt/3 on turf), and see if we can figure this out!

LATE PICK 4…

LEG 1: (Race 7: Turf 1 1/16th, Clm 30k, 3+)

The P4 begins with a 10-horse field. The youngest entrants are 3-yrs-old, and the oldest member is an 11-yr-old! That runs the gambit, which will make this turf route interesting. I think 3-yr-olds by this stage of the year have enough experience to battle older horses. That is why I like Graham Motion’s Bee Catcher #8, a half-brother to accomplished stablemate, English Bee. Both are out of English Channel, an accomplished turf runner and budding sire.

Also, to be included is Klaravich Stables’ Traffic Pattern #9, who once again retains the services of Chad Brown. The large red-lettered “KS” will be emblazoned across the silks of Irad Ortiz as he attempts to deliver a win for the first time in this form cycle. It is not like this son of Temple City does not have the pedigree for turf. Frankly, I am not sure what the issues was at the level just above, but whatever the case, the time has come to deliver.

I only want to go 2-deep at this stage, in order to be cost efficient (using some Klaravich lingo from the names of their horses).

Selections: 8/9 (2 Deep)

 

LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt 6F, ALLW 72k, 3+)

The 2nd Leg of the P4 is our only shot at a dirt race, and it is a highly competitive Allowance-type. These 6F sprints can be pretty unpredictable, especially when you survey this group. I like to find a runner who can get to the lead and try to hold it. That is not easy in a spot like this one. There appears to be some frontend types here with some history of that style. I just do not think I trust Riken #8 and The Revenger #4 to be able to hold it.

Instead, I think our money is better spent tabbing Mark Hennig’s Jemography #5, whose style is more off-the-pace, and also Chris Englehart’s Saratoga Pal #7. Both like to position themselves 2-3 back by the top of the stretch, and I see them being pretty square prices based on their past performances.

One other to include that has a some deep AQU experience is Linda Rice’s Notorious Flirt #6. He is a 3-yr-old gelding that caught a muddy track last time off the bench @BEL. Lezcano, blinks, and better weather make this one a gamer in my book. Let’s include him.

Selections: 5/6/7 (3 Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 1 3/8th, Red Smith S., 100k, 3+)

So, here is a question to pose concerning the Red Smith. Should we single Bill Mott’s Red Knight #10 and just call it a day? The pros are he seems to keep improving with age, and the cons are that this race is 1 3/8ths, which is a little shorter than his preferred distance of 1 ½. I know that sounds simplistic, but the fact is that he can be beaten. Sadler’s Joy #4, who draws in here, did it last year in this very race—winning by 2 lengths. Both will compete for favoritism on the tote and including them makes perfect sense. I do not know if I would put either of them on top though.

My top selection is another from the barn of Graham Motion. Ziyad #8 is a distance specialist who imported from France after running in some high-level company for accomplished trainer, Carlos Laffon-Parias. His 2019 campaign saw a major victory in the Grand Prix de Deauville (G2), and his recent American debut at Keeneland was not a bad effort—finishing 3rd behind Red Knight and Postulation #3. I think Motion has him in the right spot to score, and the price will be at least 4/1 or higher, with Manny Franco aboard.

Since I am spurning the 1st and 2nd choices, I want to also include Mike Maker’s Aquaphobia #9, who plays the part of the outsider well. He is one of those horses that is so inconsistent that he will be massive odds after a disappointing result, then head down the time after that when he wins. Which Aquaphobia will show? Let’s hope this one that rates well and can keep pace.

Selections: 8/9 (2 Deep)

 

LEG 4: (Race 10: Turf 1 1/16th, MC40k, 3+)

If we make it through this gauntlet to the end, we have left ourselves some cash in our pockets to go on a shopping spree. It is time to load up the cart with as many free radicals as we can muster. I know, carbs are not good, but longshots are. We will have plenty to choose from in this turf route event. The major issue is thinking broadly about scratches and the extensive AE list, which boasts 3 for the grass. I doubt this will go to the MT group, but there are 3 of those too.

Bricco #6 from the Bond Stable, and Saffie Joseph’s Michael’s Bad Boy #8 should be the co-favorites going into this one. Joseph claimed this one a race back, and this son of Noble Mission has the pedigree and the rating ability to win. As for Bond’s charge, he really has done nothing particularly wrong, per se. He just was outfinished last time. Maybe the 2-month layoff will help him get back to business here.

Another runner I do not want to miss is David Donk’s Bielefeld #2, who is coming off running in the slop @BEL. He has good ability, a late turn of foot, and Manny Franco is once again his jock. This will be his first trip to the “Big A.” He bested Bricco once before. Orlando Noda claimed Empire Express #3 from Brad Cox’s outfit and is hoping to find the right sport here. The son of Big Brown has only ever run @AQU, so maybe his new look will assist.

For coverage purposes, I want to tab Selfmade #9 from HOF-er Bill Mott, and Spiritual King #10 from the barn of Greg Sacco. Mott’s runner had a tough time at Belmont on the turf, and I always love betting a horse that finished 4th last time. To me, that signifies that he can hit the board. As for Sacco’s entry, he is a bit of an unknown quantity as far as his running style. I like this NY-er as a conditioner, so I think putting him in will not hurt. I have one more spot in my cart, and I want Open Lengths #7 to have it. Maybe George Weaver is on to something adding blinkers, and by sending him to the turf. He is going to need all the help he can get after 3 tepid performances on dirt. That should fix us well in the finale—7 deep!

Selections: 2/3/6/7/8/9/10 (7 Deep)

-------------------------------------------------------

$1.00 P4 TICKET COST: $84

Enjoy the day at Aqueduct Racetrack! Best of Luck!

Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses

New Customers Only,21 +

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +