Aqueduct Racetrack Picks and Analysis Friday 5 March 2021

Racing continues at Aqueduct... It is the eve of their big Gotham Stakes Day! Even though grass racing will not begin until April there, our turf man has you covered with his selections for the whole card and specific analysis for the races. If you're looking for a different track, check out all of our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below...

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: My Brother Neil #3, 1/1):

It looks like trainer John Toscano has the favorite in this MSW affair at Aqueduct. My Brother Neil #3 has hit the board in all 3 of his tries, and he is looking for that first win. With the steaming Eric Cancel riding, he is a lock to get it, if he can hold off Full Moon Fever #5. That will not be easy, but I think with a distance route like this one, that he should have a great shot to score.

Wager: $100 Win, #3

Favorite I Am Against: (Race 3: Money in the Bank #6, 5/2):

Besting Chris Englehart and his 5-yr-old gelding Money in the Bank #6 will be a chore, especially since he clearly takes to the Aqueduct MT. Still, I think I can find some value in this spot with Antonio Arriaga’s Truebelieve #7. This colt’s last race was such a vast improvement that I believe that he can build on that effort mightily. It wasn’t that long ago that he was running in some good company at Woodbine in 2020. If he can rollback into this spot off some shortened rest, then he will have a good shot to score, if not win this race. Consistency is the key, and his level of fitness is up to the challenge.

Wager: Bankroll $100, Graduated Wager #7, (W-$10, P-$15, S-$75)

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Rainbow Gal #6, 6/1):

Rainbow Gal #6 is an interesting filly to back in a race like this one because she is lightly raced, and should be a square price when it is time to load up. The question is… can she improve on that maiden effort from last time at the “Big A?” I think she has a shot, and Bruce Levine has some ability in this regard, second out. When I see some gatework going on during the last worktab, that can sometimes have a major effect on a horse, who might not trust the contraption. This soph is going to end up being priced well, and she should have a chance against a field that is not all it is cracked up to be.

Wager: $2 Exacta Wheel, 6 w the field

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 1 Mile, OC62.5k, F&M 3+):

It is going to be difficult for anyone to beat Timely Tradition #7 or Stand for the Flag #5. Either of them could win this high-level OC. I am going to try and do it with Gracetown #7 because this mare will be overlooked since she has been running mainly at Laurel since November. Her latest efforts were good tries, and she should be at least 8/1 before post time, if NYRA analysts will stay away from her. The best part is that Jeremiah Dwyer has Kendrick Carmouche aboard, which is more than just a plus. If he can get her on the lead, I think he has a good shot in the 1-turn mile.

Wager: $1 Trifecta Cold, 3 w 7 w 5

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Enjoy the day of racing from the “Big A!” Best of Luck!