Arkansas Derby Picks: Concert Tour shouldn't lose

The $1,000,000 Grade I Arkansas Derby is often one of the star races of the Spring but with a small field of six - it may not be as enticing as usual.

Still - we'll see Concert Tour - who is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby and our in-house handicapper provides us with his preview of the race...

I like to consider myself a contrarian, but even I can find no logical reason to play against Concert Tour (#5) in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Concert Tour beat a truly lackluster bunch in the G2 Rebel at Oaklawn, but lucky for him virtually the same group shows up here as he faces just five rivals. A son of Street Sense trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, Concert Tour is undefeated in his young career and passed his first two-turn test with flying colors in the Rebel. Given his ample pace and superior ability, it’s extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which he gets beat.

The one horse I believe may have a chance is Get Her Number (#4), who I actually picked to win the Rebel. On its face, Get Her Number’s performance looks to be quite underwhelming, however I think he could’ve done much better without some trouble in the stretch. I don’t think he was going to catch Concert Tour, however he did appear to be putting in a solid rally before getting bumped off stride in mid-stretch and fading rather sharply from there. Without that incident I believe he easily could’ve been second, and I’m still holding out hope for this horse, who is already a G1 winner on dirt. If he takes a step forward in his second start as a sophomore he could possibly threaten Concert Tour, though his real value likely lies underneath the favorite.

Behind these two there’s very little to get excited about. Concert Tour’s stablemate Hozier (#3), who is probably going to be a clear second choice, got a very good trip in the Rebel and is going to be overbet. Caddo River (#2) for a brief moment appeared to be a legitimate Derby prospect, however he was exposed in the Rebel and is also going to be a relatively short price. I really think this race goes through Concert Tour, with Get Her Number a strong contender for second.