Belmont Park Picks & Analysis for July 1

Thursday's card at Belmont Park includes a robust slate of 9 races that offer some excellent betting opportunities. It is the start of 5 days straight of racing, as NYRA takes us through the July 4th Holiday. As usual, our turf-man has you covered, including a "spotlight" of the "feature" of the day. We might be off-the-turf, so check the forecast before making your wagers! It will not rain on our parade!

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Excess Capacity #2, 1/1):

Linda Rice’s mare out of Malibu Moon has never won at Belmont, but that is all about to change today. She should handle this short field, and even if the track is wet, it should not be an issue for her. Rice could use some “wins” as she continues to battle for her life in the legal arena. Hopefully, this one can get home for her. Jockey Jose Lezcano’s fine riding continues, and he is having a bit of a renaissance in the saddle. It should continue here …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Musical America #3, 8/1):

Here is another progeny from the now-deceased super sire Malibu Moon. The Baker Barn has this one trying to get back to the level he was running at before he was claimed from Rob Atras. It was not that long ago (Spring ‘21) was up against OC62.5k types. Though his first out with the new outfit was a 6th place finish in a Clm50k, he should be able to improve what with Joel Rosario back aboard. I am hoping that the price on this one will rise above 10/1. With a heavy favorite like Happy Farm #4, who is trained by none other than … Atras. Irony abounds …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW80k, F&M 3+):

If this one stays on the turf, and we are in jeopardy of that with rain on the way, I think most entries will have a tough time against Bill Mott’s entry, the talented turfer Spungie #4. The 4-yr-old filly is going to try and rectify a 2nd place finish last time out when she was just beaten by a neck in a similar. The time before that was an off-track day at Belmont, and she scored nicely at this very distance. If she is on her game, I am not sure that there is anyone that can beat her here, as Joel Rosario gets the call.

I am mildly interested in Mark Hennig’s entry, Pure Bode #5 because she is a filly coming off-the-bench after some good performances last season. She will be more than a square price with Jose Lezcano aboard, and maybe he can work out a suitable trip. Look for her to go above 10/1—just a prediction.

As for some of the MTO-types, keep your eye on Pay Grade #11 for Christophe Clement. If she draws in, this filly out of Tonalist could be really game. She is dropping down out of a 125k “Non-G” event, and has experience on a muddy surface. Clement is heating up, and when that happens, everyone in the NYRA training community better watch out.

Wagering Recommendation: Main Track $2 Trifecta Box, 4/5/11

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Enjoy some mid-week action from Belmont! Best of Luck on another run at “Big Sandy!”