Belmont Park Picks: Late Pick 5 on Friday card ... with 2 free spaces
Belmont Park Picks - Friday, June 10, 2022
Race 1: 3-4-1-2
Race 2: 6-7-2-5
Race 3: 3-2-1-4
Race 4: 1-6-4-3
Race 5: 6-8-4-11
Race 6: 3-2-9-1
Race 7: 4-6-1-5
Race 8: 4-1-2-7
Race 9: 3-4-1-6
Race 10: 2-5-1-3
Race 11: 7-10-13-8
**Most Likely: Rougir #2 (Race 10)**
**Best Value: Mischievous Diane #4 (Race 7)**
With the Belmont Racing Festival off and running, you will not want to miss any of it. Turfwriter J.N. Campbell has you covered with analysis of all the major races, including the Belmont Stakes on Saturday. The week of racing continues with a strong line-up of classy entries on Friday.
Betting will be marked by a number of stakes contests, including $400,000 Belmont Gold Cup S. (2 Miles, Turf), $300,000 True North S. (6 1/2F, Dirt), $750,000 New York S. (1 1/4, Turf), and the $200,000 Intercontinental S. (6F, Turf). Below is a more than affordable Pick 5 ticket, so check it out!
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LATE PICK 5 …
LEG 1: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, ALLW92kn1x, F&M 3+)
As we come into the heart of the Belmont Racing Festival, it seems fitting that we should start with one of the toughest races in the sequence. There is nothing easy about this ALLW Co. sprint on the sandy surface that we have come to know and love. I know that horses under 5/1 win at almost a 70% clip, but that will not sway me to seek value elsewhere. Ray Handal is a “young” trainer in his early 30s that has already built a strong stable. He competes at NYRA tracks, and will venture as far as Turfway. One of his best prospects is Mischievous Diane #4, a filly by Practical Joke that made a nice splash last fall. She returns for her 3-yr-old debut, and could be a solid price come Friday. With rising star Dylan Davis aboard, I want to use her, but I also like the look of another class hiker in Chad Brown’s Speaks for Itself #6. The daughter of Malibu Moon only has 1 race under her saddle, but it was a front-running score at Aqueduct back in mid-April. The power of Klaravich just continues to pervade every racing corner. Let’s go 2-deep, and keep on truckin’.
Selections: 4/6 (2-Deep)
LEG 2: (Race 8: Turf, 2 Miles, Belmont Gold Cup (G2), $400k, 4+)
The distance test of the year is here, and it is a fun one. In other parts of the world, a 2-mile race is quite common, and I have always thought that jockeys that have experience “settling” their mounts early, have a major advantage. That is why my top pick(s) goes to Archie Watson’s Outbox #4, and Marcel Weiss’ Loft #1. These Euros are primed to ship to America, and either has the ability to score against a group like this one. The former has challenged some of the powers in racing on the continent, and at home in the UK. A champion jockey is coming to New York in the person of Hollie Doyle. Her riding is strong, and she is the type that knows exactly when to ask a horse for those all-important gears, late in the game. As for the former, most bettors will look at this German import with skepticism, but that would be a mistake. This colt has G2-G3 races under his saddle, and regular rider, Rene Piechulek, will be aboard. I like both of these, and think their class will shine through against American runners like Abaan #2.
Selections: 1/4 (2-Deep)
LEG 3: (Race 9: Dirt, 6½F, True North S. (G2), $300k, 4+)
I cannot say that I have ever really backed Steve Asmussen’s Jackie’s Warrior #3. The Robison’s own a good one though, and it is a pleasure to see this colt by Maclean’s Music make it back to the track after the injury he sustained at the Breeders’ Cup last year. There is no question that this is a free square, and if he is on his game, then there is no one that can match his ability. He proved it in the Churchill Downs S. (G1) after what some considered a lackluster debut at Oaklawn in the Count Fleet Sprint H. (G3). Once again, regular rider Joel Rosario gets the call. He has one mission … when it is time to go … he goes. The start is absolutely “key” for this “Single.”
Selections: 3 (Single)
LEG 4: (Race 10: Turf, 1¼, New York S. (G1), $750k, F&M 4+)
You can take your pick … Chad Brown’s Flighty Lady #1 … Chad Brown’s Rougir #2 … Chad Brown’s Virginia Joy #3 … or Chad Brown’s Bleecker Street #5 … There are 3 others drawn in for this year’s NY Stakes, but I am not sure that any of them can measure up to this bunch. Now a Grade 1 race, I think Brown will visit the winner’s circle on Friday with owner Peter Brant (all the runners are his), but the question is … which one will take the prize? The New York-based conditioner’s #1 is a mare by Sit Percy (GB) that Peter Brandt purchased back in 2018. Her record running in France was strong at the Group 3 level, but coming to the U.S. has proved a bit more difficult. She made her ’22 debut, but it was a clear miss, going 1-mile on the grass at Belmont. Maybe some “give” in the ground will suit? I am not sure that the rider switch from Irad Ortiz to Eric Cancel is a welcome sight. Brown’s #2 is a solid runner (also from France) that was an expensive Brant purchase … $3.3 million + … This filly by Territories (IRE) won the Prix de l’Opera (G1) back in October of last year. She did not compete too well in the Breeders’ Cup F&M Turf (G1), but her switch to Brown might prove to be a great move. The Beaugay (G3) was her coming out party as a 4-yr-old, so we can expect great things from her the rest of the season. I am sure Brant feels comfortable with Flavien Prat in the irons once again. Brown-Brant also brings #3 into this race, after she won both the Very One (G3) at Gulfstream Park, and then the Sheepshead Bay (G2) at Belmont. The distance should not be an issue, and she will probably not be able to control the fractions like she did in that last race … winning by 14-lengths. Trevor McCarthy won then, and will be piloting once again. Last but not least, the team has the talented #5 coming to the post at Belmont for the 1st time. Undefeated in all 6 of her starts, this filly by Quality Road was $400k at the Fasig Sale back in August of 2019. Irad Ortiz gets the call for the 1st time, and he is going to have to work his magic once the lane arrives. If he can avoid traffic troubles, then he has a legitimate chance to be there in the end. When it comes to a victor, it is hard to argue against picking Rougir #2, especially considering her class rating. The distance might be the only question, but I trust that Prat can settle her early … saving enough for that powerful turn of foot. She is good … It is a “Single.”
Selections: 2 (Single)
LEG 5: (Race 11: Turf, 6F, Intercontinental S. (G3), $200k, F&M 4+)
Coming into the Friday finale, we are faced with what might be one of the most difficult handicapping puzzles of the entire Racing Festival. These turf sprints are challenging, and maybe just taking all 13 names … putting them in a paper bag … shaking them up … and picking one, is the play. I am a little more sophisticated than that, at least I fancy myself as such. When it comes to measuring up to Grade 3 competition, I think that Brad Cox’s Caravel #7 is my type of runner. Bred by Mizzen Mast (a proven sprint producer on the grass), she came to her new barn after the Breeders’ Cup last November. Cox has done this before … taken a sprinter, made some adjustments, and found the right race to get results. He is a master when it comes to “spotting.” I know the Turf Sprint (G2) on the Derby undercard was probably just too tough a race, but I think this one could be more her “speed.” Tyler Gaffalione will have the mount, and I would like to give him another chance to see if he can get her to be forwardly-placed. That is the lynchpin … As for others to include, I want all of the runners that are drawn to Gaffalione’s outside. I like the look of Tom Morley’s Assertive Style #8, Wesley Ward’s Illegal Smile #9, Shug McGaughey’s Flower Point #10, Mark Casse’s Miss Majoriette #11, Chad Brown’s Nevisian Sunrise #12, and finally, Christophe Clement’s Miss J McKay #13. That should round out what is a very inexpensive ticket that I have constructed. Let’s get to the window … time to cash!
Selections: 7/8/9/10/11/12/13 (7-Deep)
Ticket: 4-6 / 1-4 / 3 / 3 / 7-8-9-10-11-12-13
.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $14.00
The Racing Festival is rolling on, so enjoy some action from Elmont, New York! The tradition at beautiful Belmont continues…