Belmont Park Picks & Betting Analysis for October 1

Belmont Park and their September-October Meet have their usual condition book primed and ready for action! This Friday's line-up is sure to be a tough one to crack for even the veteran handicapper.

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the stakes action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Friday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Federalist Papers #4, 7/2):

There is much to like in this entry from the barn of Chad Brown. Though she is a 3-yr-old, up against older 4s, that should not make much of a difference considering they do not seem overly experienced themselves. Klaravich owns a bevy of turfers as you know, and Brown seems to always have them ready for a grass hunt. Well-bred out of More Than Ready, she seemed flat in her 1st pair of races at Tampa. That can happen, especially when the expectations are astronomical. When bettors see the red “KS,” they flock to the tellers, thinking they have a cinch of a score. Brown gave her some time off throughout the late spring and summer, and she came back nicely at Saratoga … winning with a worthy turn-of-foot in a high-level MSW100k contest. She should be ready for more … I do not think we will see 7/2 … more like 8/5 in the end, I suspect. Still, a bet …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Magisterium #6, 8/1):

Trainer Orlando Noda has a filly looking to drop down into a lower class spot. She was last seen in the Riskaverse  $120k at Saratoga in late August. That was a salty race, and the filly was up against it (off at odds of 21/1). Noda has tried her going longer, and shorter … nothing seems to yield a finish better than 3rd. Her conditioner will now attempt the “drop” plan, and it could yield results. Running in “Non-G” and OC80k Co. is tough on the NYRA Circuit, so this could be the opportunity that she needs. I trust Hector Diaz’s decision-making ability … an underrated jockey to be sure.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, OC80k, 3+):

Turning to the MT, it is time for a blow and go sprint down the backstretch. These types of races are very difficult to figure, so it makes for a magnificent wagering opportunity. If you are looking for an “outsider” pick that is not a boxcar price, then maybe Ed Allard’s seasoned gelding, Always Sunshine #2, is the play. A 9-yr-old who has 37 starts to his credit, he comes to BEL with a pair of recent wins under his saddle. Some will scoff and say that Parx and Delaware are hardly big ponds … and that is true. But looking at this one’s record in Elmont, he does have a win in 4 attempts. Maybe that 7/2 designation on the M/L is not that ridiculous after all. Plus, Jose Ortiz gets the call.

I want to use this aged runner, but my top selection goes instead to Kelly Breen’s Newbomb #4. Talk about an age difference … 3-yrs-old? The Speightstown sprinter used to be in Todd Pletcher’s care, but made the switch to his new barn last year at this time. A couple of his 2021 tries ended up well. Though he failed miserably in the Jerkens (G1), let’s face it … no one was going to best Jackie’s Warrior or Life is Good. Coming into this race, he should have a strong enough level of fitness to get the job done. The always adept Jose Lezcano takes over for Jose Ortiz, and at 10/1, that is going to be an excellent price.

One other to consider is the Dialed In gelding who is trained by Brad Cox. The super trainer entered a number of races back at Saratoga (running quite successfully), and he is once again looking to keep his hand in the NYRA pot at Belmont. Answer In #5 appears full of ability … OC62.5k sprints at Cox’s Churchill base speak to that. Failing at a short price @The SPA was a disappointment, but he and Manny Franco can right the ship coming to Belmont for the 1st time. The ability is there …

Using all 3 of these runners makes for a plan, but I particularly like Breen’s candidate, since he combines the best price with a solid class rating. That should suffice …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 4 w 2/5

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Enjoy the day at beautiful Belmont! Best of luck on another run at their Fall Meet!