Belmont Park Picks: All turfers after a Value Proposition on April 30

Beautiful Belmont Park is the scene and it's a good one? NYRA's "Big Sandy," as its know, in Elmont, New York is poised for another great season. From Opening Day through the Belmont Stakes Program, and into July, it is going to be another great set of cards ... so, enjoy! Today, 10 races as the 1st weekend is here! The "feature" on the grass is the Elusive Quality S. ... and it should be a good one!

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Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Dame Time #8, 5/1):

I know that you might not see it at first, but this filly by Into Mischief (now trained by Michelle Nevin) is going to be the one to back in this longer sprint on the grass. She was previously in the barn of the excellent Kelsey Danner, and that means she was doing well. Danner had this female over the winter for Nevin, and she was 2nd on the AW at Gulfstream against some sturdy foes … MSW60k. Now, back at Belmont, I think she will fire with Trevor McCarthy aboard. He has already had a good couple of days at the young Meet, and should be a solid bet at a square price. Exiting the gate cleanly will be key …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #8

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Harvard #8, 8/1):

I do love it when a runner from Oaklawn ships to Belmont this time of year. I am sure that this Rudy Brisset runner will get overlooked, but that will be a mistake … I liked this colt by Pioneerof the Nile when she ran in Hot Springs because it was up against tough company in an OC50kn2x and an OC62.5kn3l. Francisco Arrieta did not get to visit the Larry Snyder Winner’s Circle either time, but his mount showed promise. This is the right level for him to enter at Belmont, and the addition of Jose Ortiz is welcome. This 4-yr-old can handle the 1-turn, 1 1/16th, and should not be underestimated. Brisset wins … the price … shoo wee … it is going to be excellent around 8/1 … “Harr-vaard” for the score!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #8 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Turf, 7F, Elusive Quality S., $100k, 4+):

The “feature” on this Saturday, named for an amazing turf sire, is a tough sprint on the “unique” Widener Course. A run through the form tells you that Chad Brown has the Klaravich-owned, Value Proposition #6, and we all know what that means … probably a heavy-favorite come post time. This experienced ridgling by the great Dansili (GB) comes back to a track where he has 4 wins in 7 starts. Ridden by Manny Franco, he has tactical turf capability, and that ability to “rate,” makes him dangerous. The last time he won a race, it was at Belmont in the Oyster Bay S. I doubt seriously that he will be 3/1 when this race goes off around 5:32 EST. If you are looking to take a shot against Brown, and the red-lettered “KS,” then consider Mark Casse’s Proven Strategies #3, and Steve Asmussen’s Snapper Sinclair #7. Both of these value plays have strong turf backgrounds, but in different ways. The former was quite successful down at Gulfstream Park, and is elevating in class … in other words, he is in-form. The latter, owned by the excellent Bloom Racing Stable, is finally getting back on the grass after running over in Dubai on the WC undercard. I like the prices, the jockeys aboard, and the chance to back a couple of seasoned runners like these. Here is the bet I want to construct, and it should be a good one with such a large field! Nothing like a well-drawn race for the turf …

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 3/6/7

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Enjoy the day at beautiful Belmont! Best of luck on another run at their Spring/Summer Meet!