Belmont Park Picks & Betting Analysis for October 7
Beautiful Belmont Park, as the sobriquet goes, and their September-October Meet have their usual condition book ready for action! This Thursday's 9-race card is sure to be a tough one to crack for even the veteran handicapper.
At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the stakes action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Thursday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Most Likely Winner: (Race 7: Sweet Mia #4, 2/1):
In her last race back at Saratoga, the filly by The Big Beast had nothing short of a troubled trip … ending up last out of 5. Now with her new barn, under the command of Danny Gargan, she has the opportunity for a fresh start. Sometimes a switch like this one can be just the thing to set a horse on the proper path. Her history speaks to her breeding and the ability to navigate the track at Belmont. This might just be her moment to get back in the “win” column. Her recent works are pretty smart-looking too. I think she is worth backing, as Gargan has the panache to make this happen.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Irish Constitution #10, 8/1):
Trainer Ray Handal is a New York-based conditioner with a stable that has much to offer the average horseplayer. I like his style and numbers in what can be a tough state bred book. This filly by the prominent sire Constitution, had a tough time in the slop at Saratoga in the Union Avenue 100k. Still, she finished 2nd, exhibiting some mild interest late in the game. I am hoping that a return to Belmont (and some better weather), will be just the ticket. First-rate jockey Joel Rosario retains the mount, and we all know what he can do.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #10 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 2: Dirt, 1 Mile, ALLW80k, F&M 3+ NY Breds):
The NY Breds corps take center stage in this one. Tom Albertrani looks like he has the inside track with his filly by Teuflesberg. I’m Perfect Too #2 is coming off a maiden victory in a MSW $100k at Saratoga. It was only a win by a neck, but sometimes hard-fought victories are the best because they reflect a runner’s heart and determination. Going 7F on the dirt and flashing that kind of speed late in the game is impressive. If she can do it again, with Junior Alvarado on board, then she probably should live up to the top billing of 7/5 that she deserves.
Looking for alternatives, most will gravitate towards Mark Casse’s Pretty Clever #7. At 5/2, she probably will not bring much value, but she ran well enough when Belmont opened last month. Kendrick Carmouche guided the Hard Spun 3-yr-old to a 3rd place finish against ALLW Co. Tracy Farmer is a savvy Thoroughbred investor, and he is hoping this one will duel like she did back in July … that was a score by a neck in a MSW75k affair. My sense is, bet this one at your own risk …
If you are after a little better value, then I like the look of Jeremiah Englehart’s I’m Fine #3. The excellent folks at the Highlander Training Center have their filly primed for a win. Englehart is one of my favorite NY-based conditioners, and even though Irad Ortiz does not know this one by Blame at all, there are few students of the game who are better. The 4-yr-old is a stalwart when it comes to ALLW Co., and she missed last season at Aqueduct on 3 separate occasions (all 2nds). Her opening in this cycle at Saratoga was pretty weak (5th), but a rebound is very feasible. She is a bet to my eye!
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Cold, 3 w 2 w 7
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Enjoy the day at beautiful Belmont! Best of luck on another run at their Fall Meet!