Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Picks: A Tale of 2 Picks ...

Rounding out the action on Juvenile Day in the Grade I Juvenile Turf where the Euro invaders are looking for some glory.

Our man J.N. got the sweet assignment of flying out west from his Texas base to cover the action in person. As for me, I got the sweet assignment of staying at home at working from my desk. Not sure how it worked out this way but here we are.

We both have thoughts on the race as written out below and you can bet with any of our partners via the Odds Grid and take advantage of any of the sign-up offers from AMWager, BetAmerica, TVG and TwinSpires...

Neil's Take...

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is tough to handicap but boy so is the final race on Friday’s card - the Juvenile Turf.

I’m going to start with a Euro invader who has been on North American soil for a while now. Albahr (#2) is a Dubawi colt won the Grade I Summer Stakes up at Woodbine in September and I’m putting a lot of stock in that performance. Frankie Dettori rode him that day and keeps the mount for this race.

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have another real shot in Modern Games (#1) who has two wins to his name as well. I’m not looking at him as a win contender even though he’s the second-favorite on the Morning Line.

I’ve always looked at the Kentucky Downs meet as a good indicator for potential top quality turf horses down the road and Tiz the Bomb (#4) won the Juvenile Mile there back in early August and showed a very good looking kick when winning the Grade II Bourbon at Keeneland. Kenny McPeek is a top trainer and at 8-1 - this is going to be my top pick in this race. Mackinnon (#6) also interests me but he has not faced any top-class competition as yet and that is why he’s not a top pick.

The Morning Line favorite is the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend (#14) has yet to win but has been up against excellent competition over in England. He certainly isn’t a toss but will only be my third choice.

Main: 2, 4, 14

Backup: 1, 6

Order of Preference: 4-2-14-1

J.N's Take...

Rounding out the Friday ticket is another tough route for freshmen … this time around it is the colts that take to what will most assuredly be the firm Del Mar turf. In this race, it appears the superb Godolphin conditioning of Charlie Appleby will try to win the day from the inside post positions. He has the uncoupled entries, Modern Games #1 and Albahr #2. I would tend to give the inside track to the latter, since he was certainly stellar up at Woodbine in the Summer S. (G1). Ridden by Frankie Dettori, as he will be today, he just dominated the other 8 horses going a mile over less than forgiving ground. I would expect him to be sharp coming to Del Mar, and very difficult to match. As for Appleby’s other entry, he could certainly win, especially after making the move from BT races to Group 3 Co. Still, I want some value, and I am not shy about seeking it.

When it comes to a top selection, of course you could back Hugo Palmer ‘s Dubawi Legend #14, and no one would try to “talk you off” that pick. But I am not so sure that is the best selection for the money. My own coinage doesn’t fall to the Mark Casse horse of the same name (Coinage #13), but rather to Mike Maker’s Stolen Base #9. This colt by Bodemeister was very strong late in the game in the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland on 10 Oct. Maker is simply the best at finding ways to compete at the highest levels. He proved last year with Fire At Will, that he has the ability to outrun the odds. I like the addition of Umberto Rispoli, who has strong turf riding skills, and knows the Jimmy Durante course like the back of his hand. I wouldn’t count this runner out, and I will be betting him heavily come Friday. He is not a “Single,” but he is my long shot pick of the day.

Top Selection: 9

Backups: 1/2/14