Carter Handicap Picks: Atras' Chateau Looks Bold in Race 6
The $300,000 Grade I Carter Handicap has a small field of five but has enticed the connections of the very fast Mischievous Alex to enter. What does our turf-man think of his chances? His views on the race are below along with our Race Card...
The Carter Hcp. is an age-old staple on the card, and if you do not already, you might want to really watch how the track sets up in the earlier races. In these types of contests, it can be useful to figure out where the speed can be found. Is it down on the rail or outside? Is it favoring speed or are closers doing their thing from the back of the pack?
I really think this race comes down to 2 contenders, and I certainly think Saffie Joseph’s Mischievous Alex #4 will get the nod as a “deserving favorite.” This 4-yr-old colt looks heralded, after 2 scores in a row down at Gulfstream Park. He stepped up from a OC62.5 6F go on the dirt into the Grade II GP Sprint, and won the day against a short field. Now, coming to the “Big A,” he looks to sharpen up some more, taking on only 5 others.
I have had a bit of a change in my thinking about Joseph’s charge, as the week has worn on. When I did the preview for this race, I thought he was an “A-,“ but now after looking at his PPs again, I am not so sure. Yes, he is fast and that Beyer shows it, but some of this scuttle about him stems from winning the Gotham (G3) a year ago. What if he is not as good as bettors think? I am not so sure that G3 was really that tough a race, and he was an extremely short price.
Instead, I think Kendrick Carmouche’s mount, Chateau #5 looks best, and in the Tom Fool (G3), a prep for this attempt, he was coming up roses with that frontend win. That field, when compared to the GP Sprint race that “Alex” was in, had to be a better race. Plus, it was at Aqueduct, which speaks to this son of Flat Out being a sort of “horse for the course.” He gets Carmouche who rides him for the 4th time. He is headed in the right direction (let’s hope it is a left turn!) for trainer Rob Atras, whose numbers are excellent at the local level. Nothing like a reconsideration when you are handicapping…
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win #5