Churchill Downs Picks & Betting Analysis for September 16

The famed racetrack in Louisville, known worldwide as the home of the "Twin Spires," Churchill Downs, will once again host a set of 12 race dates beginning this Thursday.

We are Horseracing.net/us have you covered every step of the way. Even though the new $10 million Matt Winn Turf Course refurbishment project will not be completed until some time in the Spring of 2022 (that means no grass contests), we still will have some exciting challenges on the Main Track. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Thursday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 6: Bears Watching #3, 6/5):

The irony of some horse’s names, Bears Watching #3 … chatter around the Thoroughbred water coolers is that the Chicago Bears are involved in the bid to acquire Arlington Park … they are watching. In the meantime, this Shug McGaughey runner looks primed for his own score. Out of the strong sire, Karakontie (JPN), the colt was impressive last time out at Gulfstream Park in MSW. Even though that was back in March, Shug has him poised to return to action to re-start his 3-yr-old campaign. Tyler Gaffalione is back @CD, one of the sites where he has done some of his best work. Against this field … it should be easy work, as this one takes a step further.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #3

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 3: Copper King #3, 8/1):

I am looking for a bit of a price in Race 3, and I found a veteran horse that will be guided by a veteran rider … nice combo. Copper King #3 already has 22 starts, and even though he only has a pair of wins, the last race he was entered in at Ellis Park was a nice score. In summation, I think the son of Megaglia D’Oro is headed in the right direction, as trainer James Mattingly sends him into this spot. Nothing like a quick runbacker, as Jon Court gets the call. His strength and experience continue to be impressive. I wouldn’t just count out these connections because there is major upside with this runner.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #3 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 1 1/8th, OC62.5k, F&M 3+):

A race for older females serves as the feature on this opening Thursday, and it will be a distance test. Looking at this field, we have a number of options that will be enticing. Of late, Phil Bauer’s barn has displayed a degree of fire when it comes to wins, and with Martin Garcia aboard Singita Dreams #3, the connections from Rigney Racing are hoping for a “W.” That is possible since this one has extensive experience at Churchill, but I am no fan of the 5/2 price. I just cannot take it. Instead, let’s back Kenny McPeek’s Gran Baby #7. She is lightly-raced, and should enjoy the class drop from running in a “Non-G” back at Ellis Park in mid-August. Her price will be stupendous at 10/1. Brian Hernandez is an able jockey, and I like his style. A homebred like this one, after a career running in her native Chile in some salty company, should have a shot against the likes of this group. This is McPeek we are talking about … after all.

Wagering Recommendation: $25W, $50P #7

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Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of Luck on another run at Churchill Downs!