Churchill Downs Picks & Betting Analysis for September 17

Churchill Downs, the famous racetrack in Louisville, known worldwide as the "Home of the Kentucky Derby," once again opens its doors for a brief meet.

We at Horseracing.net/us have you covered every step of the way at Churchill Downs. Even though the new $10 million Matt Winn Turf Course refurbishment project will not be completed until some time in the Spring of 2022 (that means no grass contests), we still will have some exciting challenges on the Main Track. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Friday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 3: Frost Point #2, 3/1):

Who doesn’t want to back a member of Bill Mott’s outfit when the time is right? It looks like this 3-yr-old filly is ready to get back on the track after breaking her maiden late last year at Tampa. Out of Frosted, a sire that I like very much, she should be ready to take on this crowd. With Tyler Gaffalione on her back, she should have a great chance to get home. Being a Godolphin homebred, makes this an even more inviting wager. I will take 3/1 all day long …

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #2

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Golden Account #9, 10/1):

Surveying the wagering bargain bin, I found a gem of a runner from the barn of Joe Sharp. This filly out of Overanalyze is back at it after a hiatus. The last time we saw her on a racetrack, she was 5th at the Fair Grounds in an AOC affair. She did not do much running then, but Sharp has her, like his surname, ready after weeks of training. Sometimes these types just need to mature a bit, and they can come roaring back in fine style.  

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #9 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 9: Dirt, 1¼, OC62.5k, 3+):

Running the “Derby Distance” of 1¼, we have a nice group of routers that will be contesting this high-level OC contest. It looks as though Phil Bauer’s entry, Claytnthelionheart #10, will take a significant amount of money since the gelding is logical out of Declaration of War. He ran last time up at Saratoga in an OC80k that was supposed to be on the grass, but those rainfall amounts forced it off. Bauer had a nice NYRA run, and coming back to his base at Churchill should suit, as Tyler Gaffalione takes over for Eric Cancel.

As for some other selections for your horizontal tickets, I especially fancy Jack Sisterson’s colt, Twenty Twice #8, who will be making his 2021 debut. Last year, he loved running under the gaze of the “Twin Spires,” and I have no doubt that this will continue. Out of Honor Code, he might need a run under his belt, but one could argue that his maturity and his blistering work tab say otherwise. You are getting a price horse, and a top-tier jockey in Florent Geroux.

One other intriguing selection worthy of a look is Steve Asmussen’s Allege #4. This son of Uncle Mo is in good form with 3 races in this form cycle. Switching from the Lone Star turf to the Ellis Park dirt was just what the 4-yr-old needed. Winning by 9+ lengths is a great sign, as he rated nicely throughout. Now, getting Ricardo Santana, I would imagine he would be a major threat at odds of 9/2. This one is a bet for sure!

Wagering Recommendation: Trifecta Wheel, 4 w 8/10 w 8/10 (and/or) 8/10 w 4 w 8/10

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Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of Luck on another run at Churchill Downs!