Churchill Downs Picks & Betting Analysis for September 19

Churchill Downs, the legendary racetrack in Louisville, known worldwide as the "Home of the Kentucky Derby," once again opens its doors for a short fall season.

We at Horseracing.net/us have you covered every step of the way at Churchill Downs. Even though the new $10 million Matt Winn Turf Course refurbishment project will not be completed until some time in the Spring of 2022 (that means no grass contests), we still will have some exciting challenges on the Main Track. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 9: Lady Traveler #1, 3/1):

Trainer Dale Romans knows Churchill Downs like an old friend. He has been around the place since his father was a trainer there over 50 years ago. In 2017, he became the all-time winningest trainer in "Twin Spires" history. Last year, Steve Asmussen passed him up, snatching the title away from him. Still, it was a major accomplishment, despite only lasting a short time. On Sunday afternoon in a high-level ALLW Co. race, he sends this filly out of Quality Road into a 1-turn mile. The West Point Thoroughbred-owned 3-yr-old was solid at Saratoga back on 5 September. Even though she was the prohibitive favorite that day, finishing 2nd, she is in form coming back to a place where she has run quite well. Joe Talamo rode her well when she first started out last year. If she stays around 3/1, then you are getting some great value.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #1

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Off the Charts #2, 15/1):

Looking for a double-digit priced runner who can win is not an easy task, but I think I have a good one from the barn of Vicky Oliver. A filly out of Liam’s Map, this runner got her debut out of the way back at Ellis in mid-August. She finished just off the board that day, sprinting 6F on the dirt. Exiting the gate was a rough one, and hopefully this time around, she can do some real running. Oliver works with Rafael Bejarano regularly, and he should be able to work out a nice trip. Running in this company will not be easy, but if you want a price, this is the way it goes! Let’s see what this team can do!

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #2 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 1: Dirt, 1 1/16th, MC20k, 3+):

Right from the word “go,” the Sunday card at Churchill has this tough group of males that will be contesting this route distance. What is so difficult about his race is the fact that it is a pretty evenly-matched field. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has Sailor’s Return #6 headed back to the oval after he finished off the board over at Ellis Park. A 1st time gelding might make you shy away, and with good reason. Using this son of Declaration of War is probably a good idea when it comes to exotic wagers, but more value can instead be found in a runner like Phil Bauer’s Seaside Boy #7. Even though the Munnings colt is a 1st time starter, he looks ready to strike as Rafael Bejarano gets aboard. One other to consider is Dale Romans’ Scat Shack #3. This conditioner knows his sire through and through, since Shackleford netted him his only “Classic” win in the Preakness a decade ago. This time around the Jones homebred is dropping down from MSW racing into this MC event. That might do just the trick, as Romans employs his regular rider, Joe Talamo. At 7/2, this one could prove to be a solid bet, and round out your ticket.

Wagering Recommendation: Trifecta Box, 3/6/7

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Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of luck on another run at Churchill Downs!