Churchill Downs Picks: Kentucky Derby Day Pick 6 on May 7

And they're off ... The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday afternoon, and once again, the call for 'riders-up' will go out! Turfwriter J.N. Campbell has your free picks, plus a P6 ticket that you do not want to miss. 'The Run for the Roses' is almost here ...
And they're off ... The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday afternoon, and once again, the call for "riders-up" will go out! Turfwriter J.N. Campbell has your free picks, plus a P6 ticket that you do not want to miss. "The Run for the Roses" is almost here ...

Churchill Downs Picks - Derby Saturday, May 7, 2022

  • Race 1: 10-11-7-2
  • Race 2: 10-8-2-5
  • Race 3: 2-8-7-4
  • Race 4: 2-4-8-12
  • Race 5: 5-7-6-2
  • Race 6: 11-5-2-4
  • Race 7: 11-6-10-2
  • Race 8: 2-7-1-4
  • Race 9: 4-7-10-9
  • Race 10: 6-1-3-8
  • Race 11: 10-5-3-2
  • Race 12: 16-15-10-6
  • Race 13: 9-3-1-6
  • Race 14: 11-8-3-6
  • **Most Likely: Cyberknife #16 (Race 12)**
  • **Best Value: Prevalence #6 (Race 10)**

Churchill Downs hosts the 148th Kentucky Derby on Saturday! The historic track in Louisville is readying its famed Derby City Pick 6, and this this year it is going to be brimming! Pools full to the gills ... With a 14-race card (KYD148 is 12th in the line-up), it is one of the best days to wager all year ...

Our turfwriter and resident picker, J.N. Campbell, will be with you every step, as we towards the storied race. With so many highlights this season, like the new Matt Winn Turf Course, it is going to be a wonderful time under the Twin Spires. Be sure to watch the weather ... rain could affect both surfaces ...

At we have you covered, including all of the action! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below. Don't forget to follow us on Twitter ... Horseracing_USA !!!

Horse Racing Picks


KYD148: All-Stakes Derby City PICK 6 . . .

LEG 1: (Race 7: Dirt, 1 Mile, Pat Day Mile S. (G2), $500k, 3)

If the P6 on Derby Day does not get your batteries all charged up, then maybe nothing will! Last year, the pool for this bet had around $3.5 million to its credit, so there is no reason to think that will not be broken this year. The opening leg this time around is the Pat Day Mile … a 1-turn affair on the dirt. I can tell you that I am pretty interested in a pair of entries that are alums of the $400k Lafayette S. @KEE. The top choice is Todd Pletcher’s My Prankster #11, ridden by Luis Saez. This son of Into Mischief not only has a celebrated sire, but he has a record that speaks to being up for this class and distance. That last race was a pace scenario gone wrong, as Saez got shuffled back early. The eventual winner controlled everything by riding point, and there was no way for the colt to make up ground. I think things are going to be hotter today, and that should help Pletcher’s runner get the ground he needs at the top of the lane. The same situation befell Bret Calhoun’s Tejano Twist #6, who is a well-bred gelding by Practical Joke. After a strong performance in an ALLW Co. sprint at the Fair Grounds, it was thought that he could be the one to watch for as the wire arrived. It wasn’t to be … the 1st furlong and a half put him way behind. With those turtle fractions, plus the merry-go-round whizzing along, it was too much for jock Joe Rocco Jr. to ask of his mount. Calhoun is a strong conditioner, and I re-looked at this one’s form … will be a great price. One other that deserves to be included is Doppleganger #10 for trainer Tim Yakteen. Ridden by John Velazquez once again, the former Bob Baffert runner was last seen 4th in the Arky Derby (G1) at Oaklawn. He built a strong class-based resume in SoCal over the spring against the likes of Forbidden Kingdom and Pinehurst. I think he has the speed when it counts, and I like the post position … being drawn towards the outside. Leaving out Chad Brown’s Jack Christopher #5 is playing with fire, but this Munnings colt has just too many question marks associated with him. If he beats me … then tip of the "Shap-Cap" … Let’s move on …

Selections: 6/10/11 (3-Deep)


LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 7F, Derby City Distaff S. (G1), $750k, F&M 4+)

Moving on to one of the key “divisional” races at a route for older females, this race has a good field of 8 that have assembled. The top choice is rather easy for me … it is Brad Cox’s Just One Time #2. A homebred by the ever-popular Not This Time, she just seems to be cruising into this race at the right … moment … Hmm … Riding by Flavien Prat back in the Grade 1 Madison at Keeneland, that was confirmation of her budding talent. She is currently 2/2 under Cox’s tutelage, and he really knows how to make the adjustments when it counts. This pair (jock/trn) really made their mark during the Keeneland Meet, and I think she can best her stablemate, who is drawn to her inside. One other entry I want to add is John Sadler’s classy-looking Edgeway #7. Hronis Racing is looking to collect another “graded” victory, and if this mare by Competitive Edge can make the lead, then she can be pretty tough. HOF rider John Velazquez gets the call for the 3rd time in-a-row, and she fits in a spot like this one. Going with a pair of aces … gets us through to the next round!

Selections: 2/7 (2-Deep)


LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 1 1/16th, American Turf S. (G2), $500k, 3)

 It is time to head to the new Matt Winn Turf Course, which was recently refurbished. The Bermuda will be beautiful when it comes in … Nice interview by Gabby Gaudet about the widening of the track, and how the contours are now flatter ... I digress ...This young group of colts should enjoy the trip over the new surface, even though it will have some “give” to it after the rain on Friday. Check the conditions before you wager … When it comes to a top choice, I am rather taken with both Graham Motion’s Sy Dog #7 and Mark Casse’s Coinage #10. Both of these entries have already built some nice dossiers, and they have experienced lawn jockeys in Irad Ortiz and Florent Geroux. The former bested his rival last out in the Transy S. (G3) at Keeneland, and it was a command performance. Ortiz rolled his son of Slumber late, and collected the prize by just under 2-lengths. If he can avoid traffic trouble, then this could be a repeat. As for Casse’s play, his Gulfstream action was solid in the Kitten’s Joy S. and the Peach Beach S. What makes this son of Tapit dangerous is that he has tactical speed. He is a must to include because he comes to Churchill in fine form. One other entry that is worth a look (and to include), is from the barn of Brian Lynch. By Orb, Red Danger #4 has a turf on the dam side with Distorted Humor in his bloodline. With Luis Saez back in the irons, his efforts are all going to be of the aggressive sort. Incredibly consistent from 2-yrs-old to 3, that is a sign of positive things to come. I am going to stick with this trio of young turfers because we still have the last half of the card to get through … What a tough race this one is going to be!

Selections: 4/7/10 (3-Deep)


LEG 4: (Race 10: Dirt, 7F, Churchill Downs S. (G1), $750k, 4+)

If you feel like you have not had your ‘capper noggin tested by the form yet … well, just you wait Henry Higgins … The dirt sprinters in the Older Male Division have their track shoes on, and are ready to get into the blocks. It is rematch time, and Wayne Catalano’s Aloha West #1 is the one holding the Breeders’ Cup belt. This 5-yr-old by Hard Spun is making his ’22 debut after winning just by a whisker in the BC Sprint (G1) at Del Mar. Coming back to the track, if he is sharp (and he should be), then this race could be his. Steve Asmussen’s Jackie’s Warrior #3 is going to have something to say about all that guff. Recall, the colt by Maclean’s Music was injured during the running of the BC Sprint, but came out of the rehab phase just fine. His campaign began this year in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) at Oaklawn, but I would not say that the gears were all there. You could say he “needed one,” but coming into this race, I don’t think he is as sure a bet as many might think. Instead, I am going to turn to Todd Pletcher’s Prevalence #6, who was absolutely stellar last time out in the Commonwealth S. (G3) at Keeneland. Sure, the colt by Medaglia d’Oro is moving up the ladder when it comes to class, but I think he is ready for the limelight. The distance is spot-on, and Tyler Gaffalione knows this runner better than anyone. To me, this is a completely different horse than the one that ran in the Pat Day Mile (G2) last year. He has grown in maturity by leaps and bounds, and should get a great stalking trip, as long as Gaffs can get him out of the gate smoothly. If that happens, and he can be forwardly-placed, then the Godolphin homebred has a major chance … at a great price. He will be overlooked, what with so many “celeb” track stars drawn-in. Let’s move back to the Matt Winn, as this card is coming to an end quickly!

Selections: 1/6 (2-Deep)


LEG 5: (Race 11: Turf, 1 1/8th, Turf Classic S. (G1), $1 Million, 4+)

If there is a “favorite race” on the Derby Day undercard, then it’s this one … the TC … You cannot beat last year’s finish … a Dead Heat … or can you? Let’s see … A 10-horse field was compiled, and this is one of those moments when you wish you could pick’em all! That is not feasible because we still have the KYD148 looming, and this year’s edition is going to require more than a “Single.” Still, the G1 “feature” on the grass, going 1 1/8th, will be a slugfest. There is not really a standout this time around like we had with Colonel Liam last year. What we do have is three runners from Chad Brown’s outfit. The New York-based trainer, who ships almost anywhere, is going full-tilt with Public Sector (GB) #3, Tribhuvan (FR) #4, and Adhamo (IRE) #8. Earlier in the week, I was interested in #3 not only because of the presence of Irad Ortiz, but his form from last year makes him one of the class acts in here. Now, I am thinking that going away from Team Brown is the play. Most will be betting all 3 of these to the nth degree, and I want some value elsewhere. The ones I am keen on include Larry Rivelli’s Bizzee Channel #2, Ian Wilkes’ Mira Mission #5, Roger Attfield’s Shirl’s Speight #6, and Brendan Walsh’s Santin #10. This is an eclectic bunch, but each of these turfers has his own attributes … distance … class … settling-ability … Out of these, how will Attfield’s son of Speightstown respond off a career best in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1)? That is a major question, and I am not sure whether he can make it 4 wins in-a-row. But … when you are hot … then you’re hot … So, spurning that kind of form might not be a good idea to oppose. Luis Saez is riding better than ever right now, and I like his chances. If he can pick a spot mid-pack, and get a clean gap by the top of the lane, then you never know what this horse can do. The same could be said for Rivelli’s ex-Arlington runner from last year. The gelding by one of the best North American turf horses ever (English Channel) could be sneaky in a race like this one. He can get the distance, and Gerardo Corrales is just as experienced in situations as some of the top lawn jocks. Severely underrated, in my opinion … As for the #5 (Wilkes), and the #10 (Walsh), I thought the former has only strengthened his game since coming over from Tom Bush’s outfit. Sure, the son of Noble Mission (GB) failed in the Maker’s (G1), but he might appreciate more real estate … and the expert guiding of Julien Leparoux should be key for the connections. The Walsh-trainee is equally as talented by Distorted Humor, and ran nicely in a pair of 1 1/8th “graded” tests down at the Fair Grounds. The Muniz Memorial (G2) was a duel to the wire, and Tyler Gaffalione is as strong in the saddle as ever. What a turf route we have … my plan … go against Chad Brown … yep … looking for a nice juicy odds winner … Now, on to the main event!

Selections: 2/5/6/10 (4-Deep)


LEG 6: (Race 12: Dirt, 1¼, The Kentucky Derby (G1), $3 Million, 3)

We have arrived at 148, and it is statement time … of the macro-variety … this might be one of the toughest Derby races in recent memory. With no true, overwhelming favorite (Zandon #10 and/or Epicenter #3), there are so many directions you can go in, we could see a major long shot obliterate the tote board. Be ready! Looking at this field, I already tipped my hand yesterday, when I handicapped the Oaks-Turf Classic-Derby P3. Brad Cox has a trio of runners for this year’s edition, but to my eye, Cyberknife #16 is the one to support. There are a myriad of reasons why I think this is the case. It all begins with Cox … At the beginning of “The Trail” it was apparent that the Eclipse Award-winning conditioner was going to be searching for a “Derby candidate.” At the turn, as of Jan.1, he still did not have one. Bred by the Ramseys and owned by Gold Square, this colt went for $400k back in 2020. Cox brought him to Churchill for the start of his career, and he started well, even though he was DQ-ed on debut. What I like best about his spring run through the Fair Grounds and Oaklawn was how he faced down adversity. Regular Cox-swain, Florent Geroux, was along for all of it, and even though some might think the Lecomte S. (G3) was a setback, I beg to differ. A contentious race, it was the colt’s 1st time to face that kind of company, and he needed a chance to get that one out of the way. The recalibration he experienced next time out did the trick … winning an OC50kn1x in fine style. Coming into the Arkansas Derby (G1), with so many strong contenders afoot, it shaped up to be one of the toughest of the “Preps.” The way in which Geroux carefully managed his mount's speed during that trip in Hot Springs was truly impressive. When asked … the colt went … Coming into the Derby, Cox understands how to manage expectations, and though his runner can be contrary at times, he is peaking at the right time. Filling out my ticket, I am also interested in including both the Tim Yakteen (Baffert) entries in Messier #6 and Taiba #12. This pair were brought up through the “Baffert System” before their owners were forced to switch barns. The former has a strong early foot, and will get the services of Derby Legend John Velazquez. The latter, owned by Amir Zedan (Medina Spirit’s brash advocate), is making only his 3rd career start. The services of Mike Smith should help. Rounding out tickets, I would not miss out on including Chad Brown’s Zandon #10. Jeff Drown’s colt has faced tough company dating back to the Remsen S. (G2) at Aqueduct, and once Flavien Prat climbed aboard for the Blue Grass (G2), it was clear that the team had found their rider. Last, but certainly not least, I would not give up on Saffie Joseph’s White Abarrio #15, nor Johnny Ortiz’s Barber Road #14. Both of these salty young colts have turned in performances over the past few months that were nothing short of stellar. Never the “favorite,” they get hot riders in Tyler Gaffalione and Reylu Gutierrez. Tracking ability and a strong late kick … those were attributes that we saw time and time again. Those should round out my Derby selections, and allow us to have some depth in what is shaping up to be a fabulous Kentucky Derby. The “Run for the Roses” is on … and so is the Pick 6, so enjoy! This ticket I have put together is not going to come cheap, but the rewards … they could be superb! Time to head to the window …

Selections: 6/10/12/14/15/16 (6-Deep)

Side Bets: $10 Win, $15 Place, $75 Show, #16

$2 Superfecta Wheel, 16 w 6/10/12/14/15 w 6/10/12/14/15 w 6/10


Ticket: 6-10-11 / 2-7 / 4-7-10 / 1-6 / 2-5-6-10 / 6-10-12-14-15-16

.20 DCP6 TICKET COST: $172.80


My Old Kentucky Home is right around the corner … It is time once again for the tradition and spectacle that is the 148th edition of the Kentucky Derby! Be sure to follow us on Twitter … HorseRacing_USA !!!