Churchill Downs Picks: Distance test for deep turfers in Keertana Overnight S. on May 28
Churchill Downs Picks - Saturday, May 28, 2022
Race 1: 4-2-6-1
Race 2: 5-6-4-1
Race 3: 7-6-1-3
Race 4: 5-7-8-3
Race 5: 1/1A-7-2-3
Race 6: 6-3-4-11
Race 7: 5-9-3-10
Race 8: 3-10-4-7
Race 9: 2-3-5-4
Race 10: 1/8/9/4
Race 11: 11-3-2-8
**Most Likely: Beachwalker #4 (Race 1)**
**Best Value: Mr. Tip #5 (Race 7)**
Churchill Downs has the Kentucky Derby in the background, but rest of the Meet continues on. Prepped to run through the July 4th holiday, there will be a regular set of races Thursday through Sunday ... with Memorial Day serving as a 5th ...
Today, an 11-race card is coming your way! One of the features this summer is the new Matt Winn Turf Course, which opens with a brand new sodded surface. The feature on this Saturday is a distance test, going 1 1/2 on the sod. Should be fun, and make for some excellent wagering opportunities.
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Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Beachwalker #4, 5/2):
The Steve Asmussen owned and trained gelding is dropping into a much easier spot. Last time out, the son of Street Sense competed ably against OC25kn1x company at Oaklawn. Some argued that the Hot Springs Meet went on a bit too long, losing some of its luster down the stretch in April before closing in May. I beg to differ … This runner is an example of one that has solid ability, and should be able to handle this group. Bred by Godolphin, he will be ready to fly, late in the game. The able-bodied Brian Hernandez gets the call.
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4
Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 7: Mr. Tip #5, 8/1):
Looking for some true value on this card, I am going to once again back Mike Maker’s gelding by Mr Speaker. Back on May 6th, this router was back on the turf for the first time in 8 months. That was going 1 1/8th on the Matt Winn, and he did not disappoint with Ricardo Santana in the irons. I thought a 3rd place finish showed he had promise at odds of 9/1. Now, cutting back in distance, he could prove to be a strong overlay. The switch to Gerardo Corrales is a solid move too, and when he and this trainer get together, they can form a strong team. Three Diamonds looks like they have another winner …
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #5 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 10: Turf, 1½, Keertana Overnight S., $160k, F&M 4+):
The Matt Winn is going to get some use this weekend, and when Saturday afternoon comes around, a group of tough distance specialists are going to lineup halfway down the backstretch on the green. Out of these 9 older females, I am pretty interested to see how Arnaud Delacour’s Luck Money #8 will handle the class drop. This talented daughter of Lookin At Lucky was up against some stiff competition last year, and she already has a G2 race at Belmont under her saddle. She looks capable, and will probably take “money” with Brian Hernandez in the irons. The only complaint I have … she has not won a race since Halloween ’20 … hmm … When it comes to a top selection, I am interested in the runback ability of Rusty Arnold’s Stand Tall #1. At odds of 6/1 on the M/L, this mare by Uncle Mo is getting back to a distance that suits. She likes some “give” in the ground, and going 1½ is her preferred distance. Florent Geroux knows precisely where she needs to be placed within the pack, and if he can ensure that she is forwardly-placed, then the race may be hers. The Grade 3 Modesty S. was just too challenging a class test for her, so this level appears quite appropriate. My betting plan is to use both of these runners in a Trifecta Wheel in the 1st and 2nd positions, then take the rest of the field in the 3rd spot … what a mad dash this is going to be in the end. It is turf racing folks, the way that horse racing was meant to be!
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 1/8 w 1/8 w 2/3/4/5/6/7/9
Enjoy some racing under the Twin Spires! Best of luck on another run at Churchill Downs!