Churchill Downs Picks & Analysis for June 6
Another week of racing at Churchill Downs wraps up on Sunday with a nine-race card. As usual, our in-house handicapper has taken the liberty of breaking down the card, with picks for every race and additional analysis of his strongest opinions throughout the day.
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Most Likely Winner: Golden Voice (Race 1) - The fillies that have been running at this level lately don’t do much for me, which is why I believe Golden Voice is in a prime spot off the layoff. Don’t be fooled by this filly’s last two races, which came on very soft turf courses, her prior form is much better than that. She should get firmer ground to run on Sunday, and I would anticipate her moving forward from 2 to 3. With any token improvement, she should easily be able to handle this group.
Best Value: Beaver Hat (Race 8) - Gun It is your 5-2 morning-line favorite in this race, but he doesn’t scare me one bit, and neither do the other short prices in this field. Beaver Hat is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, which gives him the appearance of an outsider, however he’s been running every bit as well as the top runners in this race and should appreciate a return to Churchill Downs. If he’s truly going to go off near his morning-line odds, he’s a no-brainer value play in a wide-open race.
Other Races of Interest: Race 2 - Bonnet (#1) is the horse to beat in the day’s second race, however I’m very leery of her at odds-on given the fact she’s not as good around two turns and was a voided claim in her last race. I suspect she could be vulnerable here, which is why my top pick is Singsong Bird (#3). Her recent form isn’t going to blow you away, but she’s run well over this track in the past and is one of the few proven route runners in this field. If Bonnet falters, which I believe is a distinct possibility, I believe Singsong Bird becomes a very likely winner at a generous price.
Race 7 - This is another race in which there are a few different ways to go, but I’m partial to Bryce Canyon (#1) as he returns off a brief layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh. Initially I wasn’t in love with his Fair Grounds form, but his last race was flattered when winner T D Dance came back to win a stakes race at Pimlico. I think there’s reason to believe a much-improved Bryce Canyon shows up here since he endured a wide trip last out and Walsh is having a strong meet, and I would love him at his morning-line odds of 8-1.
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