Del Mar Picks & LP4 Betting Analysis for August 28: Pat O'Brien Stakes
The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club hosts another excellent Saturday card, which is anchored by the Grade 2 Pat O'Brien Stakes. Our turf-man, J.N Campbell, previewed that race earlier in the week, and as you may know, it is a Breeders' Cup Challenge Series race. So there is much at stake! The full card selections are at your fingertips, along with a plethora of best bets and long shots that are sure to cash tickets.
Here at HorseRacing.net, we have you covered, as it is sure to be another weekend of beautiful weather from Southern California ... Where the surf and the turf meet!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Saturday, be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Race 8: Dirt, 6F, MSW70k, 2
Starting off this challenging sequence is a race that will probe the very reaches of our ‘capping ability. With a number of 1st time starters making their debuts, it will not be a cinch to nab a “Single.” Going deep is probably the order of the day. The “favorite” in this spot appears to be Peter Miller’s Drink the Wind #1. The ridgling was an extremely short price in his debut at Del Mar in late July. The result in that MSW70k was an abominable dead last ending for the Peachtree Stable homebred. Now, Miller has a pair of works in him, and is adding Florent Geroux. I am not exactly ecstatic about the 5/2 M/L price. I will use him on the ticket, but there are a few others that warrant consideration.
As far as those with a race(s) under them, I particularly like the look of Doug O’Neill’s Get Back Goldie #6. The 2-yr-old colt just missed the board in his debut when the DMR Meet opened back in July. O’Neill has such deep experience with these types, and he adds “blinkers” for the 1st time, which might assist. Out of Goldencents, I like the aggressiveness to move this one up the ladder to a higher class. The same could be said for the runner that won that race … Paula Capestro’s Hiding the Brick #8. The Run Away and Hide colt enjoyed dropping to the MC150k level, and that confidence boost could be what he needed.
The last one I want to use who has some secret moxie squirreled away could be George Papaprodromou’s Cabo Spirit #7. He got his debut race out of the way, and looks poised to improve. That would not be hard considering the result of that MSW70k—5th at 13 lengths behind. Do not forget the colt is out of Pioneerof the Nile, and those are rapid climbers given the chance. When it comes to the 1st time starters in this race, I am bullish on Baffert’s Rockefeller #2, Shirreffs’ Union Train #3, and O’Neill’s Durante #5 … each one comes from a solid barn, and their sire/dam “first time” stats are more than decent.
Using all of these mentioned, will hopefully get us through this opening “leg” … we need it!
LP4, 1st Leg: 1/2/3/6/7/8 (6 Deep)
Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager, WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)
Race 9: Turf, 1 3/8th, AOC40k, 3+
After going so deep in the 1st part of the LP4 sequence, I want to find myself a “Single” in this race because I know the latter half is going to be tough as nails. I think I have an angle that I can exploit, and it involves the Mike McCarthy-trainee, Friar’s Road #6. Most of the horses drawn in for this contest, to put it plainly, do not seem to care much for winning. That tells me that I want to find an entry that is making some kind of drastic switch. McCarthy’s runner fits the bill. Coming to the grass for the 1st time might seem daunting, but in certain spots, it can be extremely logical. This colt has some keen sod-lines that include Elusive Quality and Giant’s Causeway … whew, how about that? He also once ran in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) back in 2020, and since then, has shipped to Del Mar, Keeneland, and Churchill. The past 2 tries on the dirt in ALLW Co. were not terrible, and I am betting that his grass tendencies could be brought out with the right pilot. He is getting him, in Umberto Rispoli, whose turf navigating ability is as good as any sonar-man on a nuclear warship. He can get this one home at what I hope is a nice price of 6/1 or higher.
LP4, 2nd Leg: 6 (Single)
Wagering Recommendation: $25/$50 WP #6
Race 10: Dirt, 7F, Pat O’Brien Stakes (G2), $200k, 3+
With a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on the line, and entry into the Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (G1) on the table, this is going to be a fun one to handicap and investigate. My sense from the off, is look for a long shot that can beat the presumptive co-favorites, Flagstaff #8 for John Sadler, and Peter Miller’s C Z Rocket #9. There is nothing wrong with either of these entries, as they have loads of “Graded” experience under their saddles. It makes perfect sense to use them, since they are of such high-class quality. However, I think both of them are vulnerable because of their last race, True North (G2) @BEL and the Bing Crosby (G1) @DMR, really took it out of them. In other words, they may be headed in the wrong direction.
For that reason, I am much more interested in Mike Maker’s Mo Mosa #4, who I think is sneaky good. He was up against some tough foes going 2-turns in the San Diego H. (G2) last time. Being bested by Express Train and Tripoli is not a disappointment in the least. The colt out of Uncle Mo can bounce back, and he is used to shipping into some very difficult situations. His regular jockey, Ramon Vasquez is in-town too, so that will create some stability. Maker is just a shipping expert, and knows how to spot his runners. I keep going back to the Steve Sexton Mile (G3), in the slop at Lone Star Park, where this 4-yr-old just trucked on through to what amounted to nothing short of a gutsy victory.
Beyond that top selection, I also want to include Bob Baffert’s Eight Rings #5. This colt out of Empire Maker is looking tough, after he finished just behind Dr Shivel in the “Bing.” He could be a player in this race, and a dangerous type towards the end of the race. If the pace is hot enough … look out for Abel Cedillo as he rushes his mount towards the wire. One other entry that I looked at closely in my preview of this race from a few days ago, was the up-and-coming Mark Glatt runner, Howbeit #2. The son of Secret Circle, he won a nice salty-looking OC62.5k race on the MT for Little Red Feather. Including him seems like a worthy choice, especially considering how open this race truly looks.
LP4, 3rd Leg: 2/4/5/8/9 (5 Deep)
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Wheel, 4/5 w 4/5 w 2/8/9 and/or 4/5 w 2/8/9 w 4/5
Race 11: Turf, 1 1/16th, AOC20k, 3+ Cal Breds
Rounding out this LP4 ticket, we are back on the Jimmy D. Turf Course, and this is a traditional tough one … no rest for the weary public handicapper. There is no way Del Mar T-bred Club is going to let us off easy! When it comes to my pick in this OC20k event, I particularly fancy Carla Gaines’ Zip Now #2. The 3-yr-old colt broke his maiden 1st out on this very track in a MSW70k 5F sprint on the grass. It was a game performance as JJ Hernandez fought for the lead, and took the son of Tiznow all the way to the house. Extending to a route distance like this one should be possible, and I am impressed with the dam side pedigree. When I see City Zip in the background, that rings with sod ability.
I do not want to just lean on Gaines though, since if we are alive, we want every chance to cash this juicy ticket. I think it is worth our bucks to include Jonathan Wong’s U.S. Danger #10, since this gelding has a good bit of turf experience at the ALLW Co. level. That should help in a route situation like this one, as Kyle Frey gets aboard. These 2 gents work together at Golden Gate, and this 4-yr-old has the ability to win. Rounding out things, I am hoping for a long shot to come through … wouldn’t that be grand … so, let’s include the following: Carmelita’s Man #4, Circleofchampions #5, I’ll Stand Taller #6, Trevor T #7, and Cool Your Jets #9. That should not make this .50 bet too expensive, and still give us a shot at a score!
LP4, 4th Leg: 2/4/5/6/7/9/10 (7 Deep)
COST .50 LP4 Ticket: $105.00
Wagering Recommendation: $2 Exacta Wheel, 2/10 w 4/5/6/7/9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Enjoy where the “Surf Meets the Turf!” Best of Luck “Pat O” Day at sunny Del Mar!