Del Mar Thoroughbred Thursday Picks & Analysis for August 5

Where the 'Turf Meets the Surf' ... J.N. Campbell has your Thursday perspective!
Where the "Turf Meets the Surf" ... J.N. Campbell has your Thursday perspective!
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Thursday's Del Mar card has J.N Campbell honed in some specific plays, along with selections from all 8 races. Another week of beautiful weather from Southern California ... the surf and the turf are headed your way!

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

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Horse Racing Picks

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Paige Runner #4, 8/5):

Moving from the Starter Allowance Co. back into the Claiming ranks, this mare has seen her share of action over the years. Even though she hasn’t won since back at the first of the year, that was at a similar level to this one. Returning to the claiming carousel could be just the ticket, as trainer Lorenzo Ruiz tries to get her back on track. I like the choice of jockey Edwin Maldonado because he can get the job done, and other jocks will be severely over bet. If we could get 2/1 or thereabouts, that might be the ticket.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #4

 

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Bella D #7, 8/1):

We have 4 out of 11 Cal breds in this AOC20k event that come from the sire Mr. Big. The former Baffert barn member really never got his stakes career underway, but that doesn’t mean he could not be productive in the breeding shed. When it comes to turf racing though, I want to look for a “stayer” that has not only the proper bloodlines, but also the right jockey-trainer combo. The Mike Puype-trained runner is poised for a breakout, and the filly should be a square price come post time. I am fine with Trevor McCarthy in the irons, as he can work out a nice trip around 2 turns. When I saw this one was out of Decarchy, I knew that spelled Good Journey. That racer was one of Puype’s best, and he was quite good on the grass. Sounds like all the pieces are coming together …   

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #6 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

 

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 5½F, CA Thoro. Breeders’ Assoc. S. $100k, 2F):

This Cal Breeders’ Association race is full of some young fillies who are looking to make their mark on the world. Some cash will flow in several directions, but it’s simple … play It’s Simple #7. The Doug O’Neill-trainee was well-bet on debut. The MSW61k ended up a 5+ length score, which is a great way to break your maiden. The problem with this result is how will the Nyquist 2-yr-old react next out? That is the $1 Million question ... or it could be just a $2 one ... I digress ... Sometimes you will see some regression in spots like this one, so looking for value elsewhere might add up. No offense to Reddam Racing … their reputation is solid.

In the value category, why not look to a runner like trainer Luis Mendez’s Ko Olina #8. This is a “run-backer” who already has a score under his belt when the DMR Meet opened a few weeks ago. We will start to see these types, and this is an interesting angle to play, since this daughter of Stanford is riding in on a 2-race win streak. One other that is logical is Jorge Periban’s At the Spa #2. Even though she hasn’t run since late June, she already won a 100k at Santa Anita. This spot makes a ton of sense. Using all 3 of these should have us covered.

Wagering Recommendation: $2 Trifecta Box, 2/7/8

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Enjoy where the “Surf Meets the Turf!” Best of Luck on another run at Del Mar!

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