By J.N. Campbell

Delta Downs Picks & Analysis for Wednesday 13 January 2021

By J.N. Campbell
The Wednesday Edition of Delta Downs brings some nice betting opportunities across a 9-race card.
The Wednesday Edition of Delta Downs brings some nice betting opportunities across a 9-race card.

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  • Delta Downs Picks

Delta Downs Picks

  • Race 1: 4-10-1-8
  • Race 2: 3-1-2-4
  • Race 3: 2-8-9-7
  • Race 4: 10-7-6-4
  • Race 5: 7-1-9-2
  • Race 6: 9-7-6-1
  • Race 7: 1-8-5-10
  • Race 8: 4-2-1-10
  • Race 9: 7-8-4-5
  • Most Likely Winner: Race 2: Guilty Profession #3 (9/5)
  • Favorite I Am Against: Race 1: Dream Twister #10 (3/1)
  • Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: Race 5: Waypoint #7 (8/1)

Most Likely Winner: (Race 2: Guilty Profession #3, 9/5):

At this level, it is tough to go against Karl Broberg. His record speaks for itself. He doesn’t just enter a bunch of horses in a random fashion, but instead wins. That is the secret, win. He brings Guilty Profession #3 into this race, and it looks like he is a deserving favorite based on recency. Should be another notch for the TX-LA based trainer.

Wager: $100 Win, #3

 

Favorite I Am Against: (Race 1: Dream Twister #10, 3/1)

Dream Twister #10 is not a model of consistency, and that makes him vulnerable to an upset. I do not care for 3/1 anyway, and want to seek value elsewhere. In these spots, I want try and find a runner who has competed in state-bred contests because that means some more difficult standards when it comes to company. Flash of Pepper #4 might be coming off a rest, but that does not mean that he has a poor level of fitness. At 12/1 he could be an overlay. Maybe an Exacta Box would serve to put these 2 runners together for a score.

Wager: $2 Exacta Box, 4/10

 

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 5: Waypoint #7, 8/1):

I think I have an extreme weakness for offspring of Mineshaft. That sire continues to entice me to wager on his progeny, and that is one of the reasons why I like Waypoint #7. He is owned and trained by Juan Larrosa, and that is not necessarily a negative. Wesley Ward and Steve Asmussen have had some fine runners over the years that they penned their names to, and put through the paces themselves. It is a vested interest angle I think, and maybe that is what this runner has that piques my interest. Maybe this colt can get on track with Tim Thornton aboard.

Wager: Bankroll, $100 Graduated Wager WPS ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

 

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 6: Dirt, 5F, ALLW37k, LA Breds, 4+):

This Allowance contest will see Papa Bro #6 near the top of the tote board. Sam Breaux’s gelding won last time out at Delta, and I am sure bettors expect the same again. I find that specious reasoning in situations like these because it is hard to replicate success of this nature. He is not going to be easy to take down, especially with a running style that rates just off the pace.

I want to use him in a Trifecta, but I also like 2 other runners, which I think would add some value to a boxed wager. Look at Karl Broberg’s Mr. Production #7, who is making the jump once again from the Claiming to Allowance. That did not go so well when he tried it before moving from the MSW level. Still, maybe lessons were learned, and that makes this one dangerous with Tim Thornton aboard.

I want to also use a longer priced horse like King Cookie #9. This son of Proudinsky (GER) had a miserable 2020, much like us all, but if you thumb through the back class, it has some bright spots. If he can get back to some of that form, he could flip the old apple cart. Let’s use him!

Wager: $2 Trifecta Box, 6-7-9

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Enjoy the Wednesday Delta Downs races! Best of Luck!

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