Derby City Distaff Picks: Bell's the One over Gamine

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The Derby City Distaff has the shortest priced horse on the Morning Line of the day at Churchill Downs as Bob Baffert sends out the wonderful four-year-old filly Gamine. Will our man Sean bet against such a short price?

Our in-house handicapper is here with his full preview of the race. Our Race Card is at the bottom of the page where you can bet on the race with any of our betting partners and get all the Morning Line Odds.

The team here have all made selections for the full card at Churchill Downs. You can see them below and for Free Horse Racing Picks from all tracks across the United States then please click on the Gold Button below.

Ok time to pass it over to Sean - our in-house handicapper - for his full preview of the Derby City Distaff...

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Kicking off the mandatory payout Derby City Pick 6 is the G1 Derby City Distaff led by Gamine (#4), who is going to be the shortest price on the entire card. I waffled back and forth on what to do with her, ultimately deciding that I couldn’t accept such a short price on her as she could be the slightest bit vulnerable here. On one hand, she’s a brilliant sprinter that was an emphatic winner of last year’s G1 Breeders’ Filly & Mare Sprint with a whopping 110 Beyer and is catching a field pretty much devoid of early speed, which is going to play right into her hand. On the other, her 4-year-old debut in the G3 Las Flores at Santa Anita came under identical circumstances and she regressed sharply on the Beyer scale. It’s of course likely that she improves in her second start of the year for the immortal Bob Baffert, however as a result of her slower Las Flores win some doubt has crept in that she may not be as formidable without Lasix. She’s going to need to move forward to win, which isn’t generally what you want to hear about an odds-on favorite.

If Gamine fails to recapture her sensational sophomore form, the main challenger I see is Bell’s the One (#3). I was against her last out in the G1 Madison at Keeneland, where she made her seasonal bow, but she ran surprisingly well that day to dead-heat for second. I doubt she was fully cranked up for that race, and given her proficiency over this track I have to imagine this race is the one that was circled on her connections’ calendar. I am a bit worried Bell’s the One won’t get the necessary pace to run at, however I think major improvement is in store for her as she makes her second start of the year. With Gamine likely to be a black hole sucking up the vast majority of betting action, Bell’s the One should end up a significant overlay, even though dynamics may not entirely be on her side.

I’d also be remiss to not discuss one of my personal favorites, Estilo Talentoso (#1), who finished in a dead-heat for second with Bell’s the One in the Madison. This filly has really spread her wings since leaving her home base of Tampa Bay Downs. She ran a solid second in the G2 Barbara Fritchie two back at Laurel Park, an effort that is even better than it looks considering the race was delayed for a week and she was running without Lasix for the first time, an she moved way forward off it with her shocking runner-up finish in the Madison at 50-1. I don’t think she has the same kind of upside as Bell’s the One, but she should outrun her odds once again.

 

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