Kentucky Derby Profile: Epicenter

Epicenter might just have been the most impressive three-year-old on this years Road to the Kentucky Derby but can that translate into a win on Saturday? JN Campbell likes him but maybe not at short odds...

The Steve Asmussen-trainee comes into the 148th Kentucky Derby as the lukewarm favorite. Prognosticators think he will settle around 3/1 on the tote, when it is all said and done, and that is probably correct. The HOF trainer, who has the most wins in North American history is lacking one major line, on what is nothing short of an impressive resume … the Derby.

A Winchell-owned router by Not This Time, this sire that has grown in popularity over this past year. Bred by Westwind Farms, the colt has a couple of nice attributes that he has exhibited since coming to the Fair Grounds for the Gun Runner Stakes. His ability to break well, exhibit frontend speed, or be taken back, shifting to tactical mode, are all assets. The Risen Star S. (G2) and the LA Derby (G2) proved he both liked the long stretch, and the pressure each way. Getting loose on the engine suited against rivals Smile Happy and Zandon in the Risen S. Conversely, versus Zozos in the LA Derby (G2), he proved he could rate nicely.

Joel Rosario is set to ride him in the Derby; still, the connections will need a strategy … clean faces win races? If Winchell’s best can get loose, it could mean a win for Asmussen. With so many factors at play once the cavalry charge commences, you never know if your horse will get cutoff, or catch a break with a hole to get clear. Luckily, Rosario is already an Eclipse Award winner, and he has a Derby score to his name (Orb ’13). As for me, this is not my top pick because there is way too much value to be had elsewhere. Much respect to this one … he has the talent. But others in this race do as well.

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