Kentucky Derby Profile: Essential Quality

Both our in-house handicapper take a look at all the horses in the Kentucky Derby.

All their results over the past 12 months are listed below along with their Morning Line Odds and the full field of runners for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby.

This piece is all about the Morning Line favorite Essential Quality. He's got Post Position 14 and both guys really like this horse. One though isn't too keen on the price you'll be getting in the pools...

Sean's Take...

Let’s get one thing straight: I don’t hate this horse, I hate his price. There is no doubt that Essential Quality is near the very top of this division and a legitimate contender in this race, however he’s done little to separate himself from the competition this year despite an outsized reputation for being last year’s 2-year-old champ and a perfect 5-for-5 in his career.

Essential Quality has yet to face any true adversity, which is partially a testament to his adaptable running style, but it’s also reason to be skeptical of him as he could potentially be a very heavy favorite in this spot, the toughest test of his life. I’ll be playing against him due to his severe underlay status, but I have no illusions about his actual chances of winning, which aren’t insignificant.

J.N's Take...

The Godolphin homebred, trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Luis Saez, has the potential to deliver to all 3 of those, their first KYD win. Saez is on top of the riding world after winning the DWC last month for the “Boys in Blue” aboard Mystic Guide. It is rather amazing that the powerhouse stable, probably the best in the world, has not won this Churchill fixture. Now, is an opportune time.

Looking back over this son of Tapit’s record, it is apparent that Cox’s plan for his progression has worked perfectly. He has taken on all challengers, and pace scenarios. The best part is that his running style doesn’t necessitate having the lead (i.e. BC Juvenile). He has such a powerful leg kick, when asked, that settling mid-pack should do the trick, when it comes to getting this one home in time for the wire.

Now, waiting for the opportunity to cap what has become an undefeated run, his works look excellent, and his fitness level could not be higher. Odds of 5/2 at post time would be square, especially considering his back class. Slop, not a problem . . . Fractions, not a problem . . . The distance for this Tapit, not a problem . . . Deserving Derby favorite, If there ever was . . . Kudos to Cox!

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