By J.N. Campbell

Fair Grounds Picks & Betting Selections for January 14

By J.N. Campbell
The Thursday Fair Grounds card is jazzed, and full of some nice races at numerous class levels. Check out who J.N. Campbell likes below.
The Thursday Fair Grounds card is jazzed, and full of some nice races at numerous class levels. Check out who J.N. Campbell likes below.
  • Fair Grounds Picks

Fair Grounds Picks

  • Race 1: 6-4-5-7
  • Race 2: 8-5-3-1
  • Race 3: 5-8-4-2
  • Race 4: 11-6-1-2
  • Race 5: 1-7-2-3
  • Race 6: 8-3-6-5
  • Race 7: 8-3-12-1
  • Race 8: 4-10-5-6
  • Race 9: 1-5-2-6
  • Most Likely Winner: Race 5: Omega Moon #1 (3/1)
  • Favorite I Am Against: Race 2: Ninety One Assault #5 (8/5)
  • Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: Race 8: Olliemyboy #8 (6/1)

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Most Likely Winner: (Race 5: Omega Moon #1, 3/1):

Louie Roussel is one of those trainers that has dominated the claiming ranks in years past. In this spot, he brings aged relative Omega Moon #1 into what is not a cheap claimer (price tag is $30k). He has a major interest in how this thing turns out (not that he trains differently) because he also owns this son of Malibu Moon. Taking into consideration that Florent Geroux rides is a major vote of confidence. Does trainer Roussel really want to let him go? I am going to get my checkbook!

Wager: $100 Win, #1

 

Favorite I Am Against: (Race 2: Ninety One Assault #5, 8/5)

Tom Morley has Ninety One Assault #5 dropping from running in a series of “Non-Graded” affairs. The move is frankly odd. Is it because he has an intended target race down the road, and wants to get a freshening? Or is his horse recovering from that win on the FG Turf Course on LA Champions Day? Whatever the case, I think this move will backfire. Others in here entice like Afleet Ascent #8. He lost the lead to Morley’s charge in the stretch last time, and I think Ron Faucheux will have his runner prepared once again. Taking the field over “Ninety” might be the play!

Wager: $2 Exacta Wheel, 1/2/3/4/6/7/8 over 5

 

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 6: Olliemyboy #8, 6/1):

Most of the pool money for the top choice will be poured into Attorney Tim’s #3 outstretched hand. Lawyer joke coming…ok, ok… That makes sense based on his recency, but I am looking for more value. I have found a nice one in Norm Casse’s Olliemyboy #8. Getting Adam Beschizza aboard looks promising with his riding continuing to improve. Even more desirable, is the fact that this one ran in last season’s Queen’s Plate against eventual winner Mighty Heart. Sid Attard, his former trainer of some note, then sent this one to Casse. As a conditioner, his star is on the rise. This Union Rags runner is inviting prospect, who has experience on the AW. Most will shy away, but not me.

Wager: Bankroll $100, Graduated Wager WPS (W-$10, P-$15, S-$75)

 

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 8: Turf, 5 ½F, MSW45k, 3):

Here is an example of a turf sprint that has the potential to be one of those races that produces several future stars. Most in here are lightly raced, and that means that there will be a plethora of opinions flying about the outcome.

For my money, it would be easy to think that Tom Amoss has the winner in Unitedandresolute #10, who will be breaking from the outside. There is much to like in getting Florent Geroux, an offspring of Violence, and an Amoss designed work regime.

I think though that if Geroux’s mount ends up being the favorite that he might be vulnerable. First of all, he has yet to win a race in 7x. That is decidedly “not good.” Of course, he could turn things around, but without much turf form, that could be more difficult than you might think.

Lacking experience on the grass is not a deal breaker, it just adds to the argument. There are plenty of runners who have lawn mowing ability whose trainers never let them on the stuff. Take for example Koufax #5 from Greg Foley’s outfit. This crafty fireballer has little in the way of grass experience and does not come from much of a turf sire in Conveyance. He has been running in some high-end MC competition though, first at Keeneland and then at Churchill. Those outings were not poor efforts.

One other that entices is Al Stall’s Prairie #4. Bred and owned by Claiborne Farm, this colt provides us with some middle ground between the other 2 selections. The War Front colt has been on the turf (cutting back for this race) and pairs that experience with a nice pedigree. Even though Miguel Mena is not much of a “settler” on the grass, he and Stall work well together. Price should be right around 5/1 at post time.

Wager: $2 Exacta Box, 4/5/10

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Enjoy the Thursday Fair Grounds card! Best of Luck!

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +