By Sean Morris

Churchill Downs Picks for Thursday 17 September

By Sean Morris
Churchill Downs gets back underway this Thursday
Churchill Downs gets back underway this Thursday

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Thursday brings with it the return of racing at Churchill Downs and that means our in-house handicapper is rubbing his hands with excitement. He covers all the races with Picks and give us his thoughts on the Most Likely Winner, Best Value Play along with thoughts on a couple of the more interesting races...

  • Churchill Downs Picks

Churchill Downs Picks

  • Race 1: 3-6-2-1
  • Race 2: 4-1-6-3
  • Race 3: 3-5-4-1
  • Race 4: 5-1-3-2
  • Race 5: 1-2-6-8
  • Race 6: 8-3-2-1
  • Race 7: 7-5-1-3
  • Race 8: 4-7-5-9
  • Race 9: 11-12-8-10
  • Most Likely Winner: Wild Love (Race 2)
  • Best Value: Tiz Our Turn (Race 8)

Most Likely Winner:  Wild Love (Race 2) - This filly is coming out of a much better race at Saratoga in which she finished ahead of a next-out stakes winner. Her prior start at Churchill Downs was an absolute laugher when she broke her maiden by 11 ½ lengths, and if she runs back to either of her past two efforts she’s going to win. There really just isn’t much else in this small first-level allowance field, and Wild Love may also have the benefit of being right up on what figure to be a soft pace.

Best Value:  Tiz Our Turn (Race 8) - I don’t mind Front Man as the favorite in the day’s featured race, he’s vastly improved since switching to turf and ran well two back against a much better field, but he doesn’t hold any kind of big advantage here. Tiz Our Turn is probably going to get ignored in the wagering as he enters this race off a facile win at Belterra Park against conditioned claimers, but he earned a very respectable speed figure for that effort and has run well at Churchill Downs in the past, albeit on the main track. Still, I think bettors are just going to assume his last race won’t translate here, and I’m not convinced that’ll be the case. He needs to take a step forward to win, but the value should be abundant.

Other Races of Interest:  Race 3 - I don’t trust Hold Me Black (#4) as the favorite. He’s an admirable hard-knocking type, but the speed figure he earned two back is very misleading and his last race probably wouldn’t be good enough to beat this field. Instead, I’m interested in Holly Blame (#3) and Control Stake (#5). The former didn’t care for turf in his latest outing but has run consistently well on dirt, particularly at Churchill Downs, while the latter’s appeal stems from nearly identical circumstances. These two should offer decent value as alternatives to the favorite.

Race 9 - There’s a lot of first-time starters in this field and at least on the surface they don't look all that formidable. I think this is a maiden race in which experience will be key, and Len Lo Lady (#11) certainly got an education first out when she ran on a sloppy track at Saratoga. Despite lagging at the back of the pack and taking a good deal of kickback, she finished with some interest in that race. If she breaks cleaner and takes a step forward in the second start of her career, one of the firsters is really going to have to be a runner to beat her.

Up to $200 in bonuses

New Customers Only,21 +

$300 risk free bet

New Customers Only,21+
Bet $25,get $25
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +