By Sean Morris

Kentucky Downs Late Pick 5 Picks & Analysis for September 13

By Sean Morris
Back on the Turf at Kentucky Downs this Sunday
Back on the Turf at Kentucky Downs this Sunday

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Our in-house handicapper takes an in-depth look at the Late Pick-5 Races at Kentucky Downs this Sunday and makes his Picks along with all his analysis...

Kentucky Downs Late Pick-5 Picks - Sunday 13 September 2020
  • Race 7
  • Race 8
  • Race 9
  • Race 10
  • Race 11

Race 7

  • Main: 4
  • Backup (priority): 5,6
  • Order of preference: 4-7-5-6

Race 8

  • Main: 2,4,7,9
  • Backup (priority): 3,5,6,10
  • Order of preference: 7-9-2-4

Race 9

  • Main: 2,3
  • Backup: None
  • Order of preference: 2-3-5-1

Race 10

  • Main: 3,5,10,11
  • Backup (priority): 2,8,9
  • Order of preference: 11-3-10-5

Race 11

  • Main: 5,10
  • Backup (priority): 1,6
  • Order of preference: 5-10-6-1

Race 7

Hay Dakota (#4) looks like he’s gone off form recently, but I think he has excuses for each of his last two races. Two back he failed to show up over a tricky “soft” turf course at Ellis Park, which appeared to be no fluke in his last start when he finished an even fourth as the favorite at Churchill Downs. I think there were two things working against him in that race, however, as he got caught behind a soft early pace and had to rally wide over a turf course that seemed to be favoring inner paths. I think it’s likely he runs something approximating the race he ran earlier this summer for Mike Maker, who is as sharp as they come at Kentucky Downs, which would make him a formidable foe.

Hay Dakota’s main competition appears to be By Your Side (#5), who took to the turf nicely in his first try over the surface last out. I think the trouble he had in that race at Ellis Park is a bit overblown, however, and even when he got clear late he looked to be mostly one-paced. That wasn’t the strongest race to begin with, and I have a feeling he’s going to be an underlay.

As far as alternatives to the favorite go, I think Power End (#7) is the more appealing option as he wheels back on short rest after finishing second at this level less than a week ago at Kentucky Downs. Hay Dakota is probably just better than him, but I do give preference to horses who have shown they can be effective on this course.

Main:  4     Backup (priority):  5,6

Order of preference:  4-7-5-6

 

Race 8

This is a difficult 2-year-old maiden race and as always it’s probably a good idea to check the Double probables heading into this race if you’re playing the Pick 5. Mike Maker has two firsters that look dangerous, and of the two I prefer Palm Court (#9), who seems to be working forwardly and has more of a sprint-oriented pedigree than her stablemate. Oddly, Maker hasn’t won with a first-time starter over the past five years at Kentucky Downs.

The debut runner I’m most intrigued by in this spot is Momentous Miss (#7). Her trainer Byron Hughes hasn’t won with any firsters over the past five years, but I can’t ignore this one’s worktab and her immaculate pedigree for this trip. I suspect she’s going to be live.

Of those with experience, I think Bee Fast (#2) is very interesting on the surface switch. She made a pretty underwhelming debut on dirt at Indiana Grand last month, however she’s bred strongly for turf as a full-sister to stakes winner Ritzy A. P.

I’m also going to include Persevering (#4), who has lots of turf pedigree and goes out for a young trainer that’s already sent out a couple winners at first asking this year.

Main:  2,4,7,9     Backup (priority):  3,5,6,10

Order of preference:  7-9-2-4

 

Race 9

Mrs. Sippy (#3) is probably going to win this race, but I’m not sure how much I want to lean on her at a very short price. She nearly won the G1 Flower Bowl last year at a distance very close to this, and her 2020 comeback in the G3 Waya was a useful one as she got a little rank in the early stages of that race but came with a solid run in the stretch to miss by a neck. She’s yet to run over this track, but she performed well over a number of different courses in Europe, so I doubt it will be much of an issue.

The only viable alternative I see to Mrs. Sippy is Theodora B. (#2), who opts for this spot after being cross-entered in the G2 Canadian at Woodbine on Saturday. I think that’s the right decision on her connections part, as she finds herself in a similar position to her latest win in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly when she was allowed to set a tepid pace and wire the field. There is virtually no early speed in this race, so she should find herself alone on the lead again, and I trust her trainer Michael Dickinson to have her ready to run over this track.

Main:  2,3     Backup:  None

Order of preference:  2-3-5-1
 

Race 10

This is a wide open stakes race for 2-year-old fillies. Red Ghost (#3) is probably going to end up the favorite, which makes sense given her tour de force in an off-the-turf maiden race at Saratoga in her unveiling. I wouldn’t say she has tons of turf pedigree, but her connections did try to get her on the lawn in her first start so you have to think she’s going to have no trouble transitioning to this new surface. I think this race is much deeper than just her, however, so I’m going to use at least a few others.

Both debut winners from Ellis Park, La Libertee (#10) and Emro (#11), are intriguing in this spot as they were very impressive in their respective first starts. Of the pair I’m more interested in Emro, who is going to be a bigger price and is bred for this added ground, but I think both should be used prominently.

I’m even going to include the maiden Herald Angel (#5) as a ‘main’ play. She didn’t run much slower than the rest of this field in her first start on the turf at Saratoga, and I love the confidence Mike Maker is showing in her by taking a shot in this race. She looked like she would appreciate more distance in her debut, and if she takes a step forward here she can compete with this group at a price.

Main:  3,5,10,11      Backup (priority):  2,8,9

Order of preference:  11-3-10-5

 

Race 11

This race couldn’t have come up much tougher. Just about every conceivable 3-year-old filly turf sprinter showed up, led by the globetrotting Kimari (#10), who nearly beat males in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in her last start. The horse that beat her that day, Golden Horde, came back to finish third in the Group 1 July Cup against older horses, and if Kimari were to return to the States in similar form she’s going to be awfully tough to beat.

The one filly I really believe can topple the favorite is Enola Gay (#5), who was a revelation in her debut over this course last summer. Her connections have tried to stretch her out this year and she did actually win the G2 Appalachian at a mile in her 2020 unveiling, however I think she’s better suited to these elongated one-turn races. There’s no doubt she’s in better form this year, which is scary considering how good she was on this track last year, and she should be charging late under Julien Leparoux.

I’m also somewhat intrigued by She’s My Type (#10), who bullied her way to victory in the Coronation Cup at Saratoga last out, and Lucrezia (#1), who’s spent a lot of time on dirt lately but showed enormous potential as a turf sprinter last year.

Main:  5,10     Backup (priority):  1,6

Order of preference:  5-10-6-1

 

Most Likely Winner:  Hay Dakota (Race 7)

Best Value:  Enola Gay (Race 11)

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