By J.N. Campbell

Free Santa Anita Picks From “The Great Race Place” – Saturday 17 October

By J.N. Campbell
We have action from Santa Anita this Saturday
We have action from Santa Anita this Saturday

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  • Free Santa Anita Picks Saturday 17 October

Free Santa Anita Picks Saturday 17 October

  • Race 1: 2-7-5-4
  • Race 2: 1-5-6-3
  • Race 3: 6-3-2-1
  • Race 4: 1-3-5-2
  • Race 5: 1-6-8-7
  • Race 6: 6-7-1-5
  • Race 7: 7-4-8-10
  • Race 8: 7-5-2-4
  • Race 9: 7-5-4-3
  • Race 10: 1-6-2-5
  • Most Likely Winner: Race 7 - Factorial #7
  • Live Longshot: Race 5 - Y Not Sizzle #1

Most Likely Winner: Factorial (#7, 4/1) (Race 7) – I am an absolute sucker for hyperbole, puns, and horses by the Sire, The Factor. This is especially true when they are running on the turf under a mile. In Race 7, watch out for Factorial (#7), since he ran well last out in a similar spot down at Del Mar. Now back @SA, this 6-year-old gelding gets a rider upgrade to Flavian Prat, and I think Ryan Hanson has this one poised for a win.

Others will take money, like Gate Speed (#2), but he is coming off the bench for Mark Glatt—not worried about him. Antithetical (#8) for Steve Miyadi is of interest, since he was second last out less than 2 weeks ago. However, I am contrary. Instead, I sticking with my obsession and Factorial (#7). Anything above 3/1 is a deal on this horse: bet to win.

Best Value:  Y Not Sizzle (#1, 8/1) (Race 5) – Non-winners of 2, clash in this 25k Claimer for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up. This is one of those races where anyone can win. That presents us with some opportunities to work the edges and come up with some value. Plus, it is on the turf! What a wrench! I think Y Not Sizzle (#1) is my top selection because of the obvious value, but other reasons abound.

With Santa Anita back in business after a short delay, we have a situation where Del Mar horses are running back up in LA. While they were down by the surf, they may not have acquitted themselves well, so it looks like they are duds or in poor form. That might be an aberration. I suspect that is the case with the #1. She gets back to her preferred track where @SA she is 1-2-3 in 8 tries. Not bad. Plus, the Jeff Mullins-trainee will get her preferred jockey back, Umberto Rispoli, who knows turf like his backyard lawn (25% winners on the sod). Good price on this one at 8/1.   

Other Races of Interest: 

Race 9 - Croughavouke (#7) The Autumn Miss (G3) is the “Feature” for this SA Saturday, and it should be a solid betting race, even if there is only a field of 7. There are several possibilities here, but I landed on the former runner in last year’s BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, Croughavouke (IRE) (#7), who finished 6th to the gifted Graham Motion filly, Sharing. Now it is almost a year later, and most of her efforts in 2020 could be interpreted as disappointing. I disagree. I know she was beaten by some of these, in some cases multiple times, and know her SA record is poor. But...in her defense, Jeff Mullins has trained her with regular works since she ran those couple times at Del Mar. That last effort in an OC80k included a powerful late move in the stretch. I like that kind of progress. With regular Mullins rider, Umberto Rispoli aboard, I would say she has more than an outside shot, and will probably be an adequate price. Maybe play the old graduated WPS wager to hedge, my advice.

Race 10 – Nicole Grace (#1) This race is Leg 1 of the $5 Golden Hour Double, which in case you had not heard, is an effort by the Stronachs to offer some new-fangled gimmicks toward the end of the wagering day. Thank goodness they pitched that ruddy roulette business! I am not opposed to this type of wager because it miniaturizes the X-C P5 or the Stronach P5 from Fridays. The other half of the bet covers the finale at Golden Gate, another facility owned by this squabbling bunch.

In this particular spot, you have two choices, a) you can pick the horses with experience who have some races under their girth, or b) look to some first-timers and see if you can catch a flier to the good. I will choose the latter because I do not trust some of these “more experienced” runners, like Ron Ellis’ Saving Sophie (#2). Nicole Grace (#1) out of the Peter Eurton barn offers better value and looks poised to jump into the pool. Hope Abel Cedillo has his suit. Eurton’s firsters can surprise, so do not write them off!

Be sure to check out my compadre Editor’s pick(s) for the finale at Golden Gate. Might be your shot to score in the Golden Hour Double! Go get’em Horseplayers!

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