By Sean Morris

Tampa Bay Downs Picks & Analysis for January 13

By Sean Morris
Nine races are on tap at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday
Nine races are on tap at Tampa Bay Downs on Wednesday

Winter Midweek Bet Back

Opt-in and get your bet back if your horse runs second in selected midweek races. Max refund $10 per race,T&Cs apply. 01/19 - Parx/Turf Paradise,01/20 - Gulfstream/Tampa,01/21 - Fair Grounds/Turfway.

  • Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Tampa Bay Downs Picks

  • Race 1: 4-3-6-1
  • Race 2: 4-2-1-5
  • Race 3: 2-1-4-8
  • Race 4: 7-8-1-2
  • Race 5: 7-6-5-1
  • Race 6: 11-9-1-4
  • Race 7: 6-2-5-7
  • Race 8: 8-9-1-11
  • Race 9: 8-9-1-5
  • Most Likely Winner: Shall Return (Race 8)
  • Best Value: Blackline (Race 7)

Most Likely Winner:  Shall Return (Race 8) - Shall Return is taking a slight drop in class after a promising return to the races for her new trainer, Juan Arriagada. She got a good trip and was simply third best in her last start, however that came against a much better field despite it being nominally just 2k better than this race. If she repeats that race, which I believe she will for the capable Arriagada, she’s going to be tough for this group to handle.

 

Best Value:  Blackline (Race 7) - It was only last year that this horse ran a pair of races on the Tampa turf that would demolish this field. Granted, those races came for the hyper-potent Mike Stidham and he failed to duplicate those efforts away from Tampa, however his form is now sufficiently dirtied up after contesting a bunch of races on synthetic tracks, which he’s clearly not a fan of. Nearly all of his turf races make him a contender in this spot, and if it turns out he has a particular affinity for this turf course he’s going to be a formidable foe at what should be a square price.

 

Other Races of Interest:  Race 3 - I find it hard to believe Jeha (#2) is going to be 5-2 in this spot, which he is on the morning line, but if he does end up near that price he’d represent terrific value in a race comprised almost exclusively of dirt horses. Unlike the majority of this field, Jeha demonstrated a clear preference for turf in his last race, which is no surprise given he’s sired by Animal Kingdom. All he likely has to do is approximate that effort to beat this group.


Race 5 - Smokey Song (#7) is another short-priced contender that should probably end up even shorter than his 3-1 morning-line odds, though I’m not sure he will. This horse is meeting virtually nothing in this spot, and he ran reasonably well in his last start at this level against a much better group. He probably has more early speed than what he showed last time, and his trainer Kelsey Danner is an up-and-comer that is currently winning races in bunches. He’s quite simply a very likely winner of this race.

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+

Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +