Gulfstream Park Picks: Ballymore Star an overlay in Race 7
On the eve of the G1 Florida Derby, the centerpiece of the Championship Meet, Gulfstream is back at it with another 10-race card. As usual, our in-house handicapper has scoured the card for winners, providing picks for every race and select analysis of his best value plays of the day.
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Friday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Race 4
Naco (#3) is probably going to end up favored here as he drops in class and switches to turf, however I’m not too interested in him at a short price. He has shown some ability on the main track, but he has very little turf pedigree and his last race was pretty underwhelming. Naco is also wheeling back on short rest for this race and I believe he’s going to be a significant underlay.
Alado (#7) may vie for favoritism with Naco, but that’s due primarily to the presence of leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. and not his exploits on the racetrack, where he’s been decidedly average even with Ortiz aboard.
Since both of these horses are vulnerable, there should be some value to be had in this race, which is why I landed on Dream of Warrior (#2) as my top pick. He failed to distinguish himself in his debut at this trip on February 26, however I think there’s reason to believe he’s going to take a major step forward in this spot as his trainer Juan Avila has strong numbers with second-time starters. This horse is also adding blinkers, which hopefully will allow him to carry his early speed a bit farther. He’s getting a huge amount of class relief as he makes his initial start for a tag, and with any improvement he should win.
At an even bigger price I’m also interested in first-time turfer Tiz a Prince (#6). He’s shown absolutely nothing on dirt through three starts, but that was also the case with his dam, who turned out to be a solid turf sprinter. Cairo Prince is at least an adequate turf sire, so I’m expecting this one to wake up on this surface.
Race 7
Despite some top connections, there is no one in this race that scares me. All of these fillies check in considerably under par for the level and many of them have had their fair share of chances already. This race feels ripe for an upset, which is why I’m picking Ballymore Star (#4). It looks like this 4-year-old filly has little chance here coming off a pedestrian 60 Beyer Speed Figure from June of last year at Woodbine, but she had significant trouble in that race when held up in traffic in the stretch and her prior start at Gulfstream, which came early in her sophomore campaign, would definitely put her in the mix. The layoff is a bit of a concern, but I think Ballymore Star is one of the more talented fillies in this race and appears to be working well at Payson Park for her return. If she comes back in top shape I believe she can beat this field at a generous price.
Race 9
Patty H (#2) was strongly in contention to be tabbed the day’s ‘Most Likely Winner.’ She may have put together an uninspiring juvenile campaign, but her 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream, which happened to coincide with her being treated with Lasix for the first time, was far and away the best race of her life. This filly dueled through a wicked opening quarter-mile in that spot and was then hooked by the undefeated R Adios Jersey in the stretch. Although she couldn’t quite hold that one off, she dug in gamely and missed by just a half-length in the end. Not that the effort needed any further proof of it being a strong performance, the race received a boost when third-place finisher Foolish Heart came back to win, improving her Beyer by 13 points in the process. There is quite a bit of other speed in this race, but Patty H proved last time that she can overcome an adverse pace scenario and ultimately I believe she’s a cut above the best this field has to offer.
Patty H is indeed a very likely winner, but that’s likely to be reflected in her odds, which is why I think the real value in this race lies underneath her with Sweet Baby Raelynn (#9). After beginning her career on turf, Sweet Baby Raelynn was a revelation on the main track two back when she broke her maiden with ease, soundly beating next-out winner Emunah (#4). Her connections got a little ambitious last out throwing her to the wolves in the Any Limit, which predictably didn’t go well, but I’m not holding that race against her as it came on a wet track and she was forced to run without Lasix. I think she’s a strong candidate to rebound here as Lasix is re-applied, and jockey Javier Castellano should be able to work out an ideal stalking trip from her wide post. Trainer Jorge Delgado’s strong recent run at Gulfstream only adds to the appeal.
Race 10
This maiden claimer for 3-year-old fillies on turf is a pretty fun race to close out the day with, and one in which I think the class-dropping Family Time (#3) and Iris the Empress (#5) have a clear advantage. The drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming is known as the biggest in racing, which is what we get with these two on turf. While Family Time did run for a tag on the main track in her last start, her prior turf race came against maiden special weights and was won by Jouster, who took an optional claimer in her next start and nearly won a stakes race at Tampa last out. Family Time didn’t do a heck of a lot of running in that spot, but she was just completely outclassed and is going to benefit greatly from the class relief.
I think Family Time must be used, especially anywhere near her 8-1 morning-line odds, but my top pick is Iris the Empress. This filly ran reasonably well in her first start for trainer Brian Lynch off a long layoff. While that race wasn’t won by a filly of Jouster’s caliber, it does feel as though Iris the Empress showed a bit more, and I noted during the race that Iris the Empress looked quite washy. Based on her debut, I believe this filly has more early speed than she flashed last time, and like Family Time I think the drop in class is going to make all the difference for her.
*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*