By Sean Morris

Gulfstream Park Picks & Late Pick 5 Analysis for January 14

By Sean Morris
The Gulfstream Park Championship Meet rolls along with another 10-race card on Thursday
The Gulfstream Park Championship Meet rolls along with another 10-race card on Thursday

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Another excellent 10-race card is on tap for Thursday at Gulfstream Park. Our in-house handicapper has taken a close look at the Late Pick 5 sequence, and has also made picks for the first half of the card. His thoughts and selections are below...

  • Gulfstream Park Picks

Gulfstream Park Picks

  • Race 1: 5-8-1-4
  • Race 2: 2-6-5-4
  • Race 3: 2-3-5-6
  • Race 4: 6-7-3-1
  • Race 5: 1-5-3-2
  • Race 6: 9-5-8-3
  • Race 7: 3-4-5-2
  • Race 8: 7-6-5-4
  • Race 9: 1-5-7-6
  • Race 10: 6-2-3-1
  • Most Likely Winner: Krysto Skye (Race 8)
  • Best Value: Scotty Brown (Race 4), She Throws Heat (Race 9)

Race 6

Apache Brave (#4) and Colonel Tom (#7) are your likely favorites, but they won’t be scaring anyone off. The former did have to deal with some traffic in the stretch last time, however he was underwhelming in his previous stint with Georgina Baxter and is going to be overbet, while the latter got a very good trip in his last race and is going to be an underlay, as well. If I’m taking anyone out of the December 23 race at this level, which I don’t think was particularly good to begin with, I prefer Gran Malbec (#3) and Discretionary Marq (#8). These two both ran better than it looks, and they’re each getting a significant change for this race. In the case of Gran Malbec, it’s a big upgrade in rider to Luis Saez, while Discretionary Marq was claimed out of his last race by Kelly Breen. It wouldn’t be a surprise for either of these horses to turn in improved efforts here.

However, since I’m not enthused with that December 23 heat as a whole, I went looking for new faces. The two I landed on are Hero Tiger (#5) and Fielder (#9). Conspicuously, Hero Tiger will be ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., so while I don’t love this horse’s prior turf sprint form, that rider change is tough to ignore and signals that a career-best performance could be forthcoming. Fielder, meanwhile, is a complete dart throw as his form continues to deteriorate heading into his 7-year-old campaign and he wheels back on relatively short rest, but I can’t resist picking him on top. It was only last year this horse finished third, beaten a length in the World of Trouble Turf Sprint over this course. He’s been grossly mismanaged since, but I don’t hold his last race against him as he got hooked up in an impossible speed duel going two turns here and he’s finally getting back to his preferred trip.

Main:  3,5,8,9     Backup (priority):  4,7

Order of preference:  9-5-8-3


Race 7

Don’t Get Khozy (#3) appears to be in a good spot as she looks to break through this Florida-bred allowance condition. A career overachiever, Don’t Get Khozy just keeps getting better for Antonio Sano and Drawing Away Stable and is coming off the best race of her life in the Claiming Crown Glass Slipper. She no doubt got a good trip in that race, but it was a much better field top to bottom and the filly she narrowly beat for second, Sky Chaser, would be an odds-on favorite in this spot. If Don’t Get Khozy repeats that effort, there’s probably no one in her that can beat her.

Tiz Enough (#4) and Dizzy (#5) are both coming out of the same race at this level on December 17 won by Princess Betty, and only a half-length separated the pair at the finish. I didn’t think much of the winner, however the race came back legitimately pretty fast and these two seemed to run well. My preference is the former as Tyler Gaffalione takes the call and because she’s going to be a bigger price, but they’re both in with a chance if the favorite falters.

Main:  3     Backup (priority):  4,5

Order of preference:  3-4-5-2


Race 8

The placement is a bit odd for a horse that’s been so good on dirt recently, but Krysto Skye (#7) is equally adept on turf and simply a very likely winner of this race. Having nearly won a couple graded stakes in 2020 you’d think his connections would aim a bit higher than this starter allowance race, however I don’t know that there’s enough reason to believe he’s going to show up with anything less than another top effort. I wouldn’t go overboard on him, but he does appear to be a standout in this race.

The other two I have an interest in are Fully Loaded (#5) and Tropicat (#6). I really liked the former’s chances last out and admittedly he was quite disappointing as he got a very good trip and didn’t deliver. Two back he ran a fine second behind top turf sprinter Fiya, so he has races that would make him very competitive here, but he’s returning on short rest and could just be over the top. Tropicat finished behind Fully Loaded in his last start, but he’s coming into this race fresh and should get plenty of pace to run at. It’s also notable his connections bring this 8-year-old back in a protected spot after running for a tag in his past three races. He’s my top backup.

Main:  7     Backup (priority):  5,6

Order of preference:  7-6-5-4


Race 9

When Whatdoesasharksay (#6) is the morning-line favorite, you know it’s not a very good race. Nothing against this filly, she’s just had a bunch of chances to break through this condition and has been content to settle for minor awards. She also happens to be coming off a fairly lengthy layoff and is definitely vulnerable at a short price.

None of the top two or three choices really do much for me, which is why I’m quite keen on She Throws Heat (#1) to pull off the mild upset. This filly hasn’t set any stopwatches on fire so far in her career, however she returned in much-improved form last fall and gives the appearance of a horse that will appreciate the added ground she gets today. If she takes another step forward for Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, which I think is highly probable given the conditions of this race, she’s going to be a major player.

Main:  1     Backup (priority):  5,6,7

Order of preference:  1-5-7-6


Race 10

Sense a Million (#6) is the filly to beat in the finale. She’s dropping out of an open 12k claimer, so even though the claiming price remains the same she’s actually getting some pretty significant class relief here. She did get a good trip last time and only closed mildly late, however that field was worlds better than what she’s meeting here and if she maintains her current form she should be able to break through this condition.

Domineer (#2) can’t rival Sense a Million in terms of speed figures, but two big things are happening for her in this race: she’s cutting back to 5 ½ furlongs and getting a major upgrade in rider to Emisael Jaramillo. The importance of the turnback cannot be understated given the devastating early foot this filly showed in her last race, when she just failed to hold going six furlongs after setting a blazing pace. It’s clear she’s an improved filly as a newly turned 4-year-old, and perhaps Jaramillo can help her harness some of that speed. Either way, I think she’s going to be dangerous.

Main:  2,6     Backup:  1,3

Order of preference:  6-2-3-1


Most Likely Winner:  Krysto Skye (Race 8)

Best Value:  Scotty Brown (Race 4), She Throws Heat (Race 9)

 

Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses

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Get up to $250 in bonus funds

New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21+
Up to $200 in Sign-up Bonuses
New Customers Only,21 +