Gulfstream Park Picks: Lord Flintshire the value play in finale
Racing ramps up on Thursday at Gulfstream Park with another fine 10-race program. As usual, our in-house handicapper has offered his thoughts on the Late Pick 4 sequence, and has made picks for the entire card.
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Thursday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
Morocco (#5) is undoubtedly the horse to beat in the kickoff leg of this Late Pick 4. He’s clearly found his niche at this level at Gulfstream having won his past three starts at this condition, so I’m not at all concerned he’s offered for a tag again after a convincing win last out over a solid field of claimers.
I’m expecting Morocco to run his race, which is going to make him tough to beat, but there’s another horse that interests me even more. Galleon Mast (#4) is a surprise addition to the claiming ranks given the success this Florida-bred has had, however he’s 8-years-old now and hasn’t won a race since late in 2019. Despite those negatives, I don’t think this horse has lost a step at all. The comment line from his last race, the Sunshine Turf, reads “stymied inside stretch,” and that’s precisely what happened. He appeared full of run turning for home and was completely shut off down the lane, never getting adequate room to launch his rally. I love Irad Oritz, Jr. taking the call aboard him, and he should get ample pace to run at in this spot. The icing on the cake is that he’s going to be double or maybe even triple the price of the favorite.
Main: 4,5 Backup: 2
Order of preference: 4-5-2-7
In Race 8, one of the most impressive 3-year-old maiden winners of the meet is facing a mediocre allowance field at best, so the stage is certainly set for Prevalence (#6) to notch another victory as he looks to possibly establish himself as a contender for the Kentucky Derby in May. The placement is interesting since he won’t be able to earn any Derby points here and time is running out to actually make the race, however it would appear his connections aren’t going to be rushing him along and have opted to let him develop in a softer spot. If he runs anything approximating his debut win over this track, an 8 ½-length score that earned him an 89 Beyer Speed Figure, it’s doubtful anyone will be able to get within shouting distance of him.
There are actually a couple others in here that have some ability, though they’re not in the same league as Prevalence. Caxambas Candy (#2) was a surprise winner of his debut at Gulfstream on February 17, when he surged past an off-the-turf field to score by 4 ¾ lengths. He earned a respectable 72 Beyer for the victory, and it’s doubtful his trainer David Fawkes had him fully cranked up to win first out.
The other that bears mentioning in this race is Tio Magico (#5), who is trying dirt for the first time in this spot. This guy showed some talent as a 2-year-old over the synthetic main track at Woodbine and his pedigree indicates that he’ll be able to make this transition. He appears to be working well at Payson Park and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him show up with an improved effort.
Main: 6 Backup: 2,5
Order of preference: 6-2-5-1
I don’t love that Charge Account (#1) was even offered for a tag in her last race, when she could have been protected instead, but I don’t think that’s enough reason to play against her here as she makes her first start for trainer Kelly Breen (shocker, she was claimed out of her last start). Despite the red flag of her owner/trainer opting to run her for the 25k claiming price, she actually ran quite well last out, and that race came on the main track. If you disregard the clunker she threw in on December 24, her other two turf races are vastly better than what the others in this field are capable of. I trust Breen to keep her going for at least one more start, and perhaps he’ll be able to provide her with some needed consistency.
Omnia (#5) looks like the logical alternative to Charge Account, and while I don’t deny she’s fast enough to compete, I don’t think she’s a particularly trustworthy runner. She was able to wire a field of 16k claimers in her last start, but she often goes in and out of form without much notice. If someone applies early pressure to her, I worry she might cave.
My preferred backup in this race is actually Gypsy Wife (#9), who I thought ran deceptively well two back on turf when she broke slowly and had to weave through traffic in the stretch behind a dawdling pace. That race has since proven to be live, and if Gypsy Wife can work out a better trip here she may be able to pull off the upset.
Main: 1 Backup (priority): 5,9
Order of preference: 1-9-5-8
This isn’t the best 50k maiden claimer for 3-year-olds on turf, so I’m going to take a shot with Lord Flintshire (#1). This horse is coming out of a much worse race that occurred at the 25k level, but he had some legitimate trouble in that spot and I believe is set for much better now. The 49 Beyer he earned for the effort is considerably lighter than what his competition has been running, but I think he could’ve done much better than that with a clean trip and he’s now adding Lasix for the first time. I also like that his connections are spotting him aggressively as he comes off a bit of a layoff, and ultimately it wouldn’t take much improvement on his end for him to compete.
The other two I think need to be used are Indoctrinate (#6) and Future Victory (#10), though I worry these horses are going to be underlays. The former is coming out of what appears to be a strong race at this level, however I have my doubts about that quality of that event and he was allowed to set a leisurely pace before proving no match for the winner. Future Victory is taking a much needed drop in class and showed some life last out in a maiden special weight race, but he’s been rather ordinary through two career starts and is going to take a lot of money because of the Todd Pletcher/Irad Ortiz, Jr. trainer/jockey combo.
Main: 1,6,10 Backup (priority): 3,4
Order of preference: 1-10-6-4
Most Likely Winner: Prevalence (Race 8)
Best Value: Lord Flintshire (Race 10)
*If you're interested in seeing payouts for these races, you can find them on our Results page linked to below*