Gulfstream Park Picks & Betting Analysis for October 7

Gulfstream Park has seen some unusual wagering activity of late, as bettors have flocked to the South Florida racing. They are sure to have some nice prices for a solid 8-race card.

Over the summer owners ,The Stronach Group, made the decision to convert one of its turf courses into a Tapeta surface. This inaugurated the 1st North American racetrack to have all 3 types of ground available to run on. It should be interesting to see how this alteration impacts the handicapping of races. 

Check out these selections and some targeted analysis from J.N. Campbell. If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Thursday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Most Likely Winner: (Race 1: Dr. Roger #7, 3/1):

In this little MC affair, trainer Juan Carlos Avila has a seasoned “stayer” going up against what amounts to a pretty soft field. I would expect jockey Emisael Jaramillo to finally get this one home, so the 3-yr-old gelding can break his maiden. In 13 starts, he still has a glaring “goose egg” in the win column, so maybe it is finally time to put that to rest. This runner should be able to handle the surface, the distance, and will be much better value than the heavy favorite, Doo Wop Don #3.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Win, #7

Off-the-Pace Play of the Day: (Race 8: Outkickthecoverage #10, 8/1):

CJ Thoroughbreds, led by the excellent Corey Johnson, normally have their pulse on who to back and where they should run. A longtime bettor, horse industry expert, and influencer, his filly by Hard Spun is making her way back to the track. She might need a race, but this could be just the spot for her return. In Mike Stidham’s outfit early this year, she ran against some good competition at the Fair Grounds. Cam Gambolati takes over the conditioning duties, and who doesn’t like Edgar Prado when it comes to experience? He is one of my all-time favorite riders. If you get somewhere around 8/1 on the tote, then that is a great price.

Wagering Recommendation: $100 Bankroll, Graduated Wager WPS #10 ($10-W, $15-P, $75-S)

Spotlight Race of the Day: (Race 7: Dirt, 6F, St.Opt.Clm35k, 3+):

Trainer Saffie Joseph is playing the old uncoupled entry game in this race, and he very well could have the winner in what amounts to only a 7-horse field. Picking Up Pennies #2 has much to like in that he won last time in exactly this type of spot. That was all on the frontend, and though he drifted down the lane, he still won by 3+ lengths. Joseph is a part-owner in this one, and I am sure Ed Zayas understands the importance of that fact. As for the other Joseph entry, Creative Cloud #4 the colt is adding the “blinks” and will try to rectify a poor showing in an OC12.5k last time. His fastball just did not have any zip, so JC Diaz is going to have to contend with that shadow. Getting back to sprinting is probably what he wants to do most.

I do not care for either of these runners because they just seem too obvious. The play in my mind is to look for some value … and I found it in Juan Alvarado’s Gump #6. This 5-yr-old gelding ironically was in Joseph’s care back in 2020 but found his way to a new barn. He was laid off most of 2021, until he got back into training this past summer. Most of those works were sharp, and that makes me think that his debut on 11 Sept. was a definite need. It was a troubled trip at Gulfstream at this condition level, and he did not do much running … dead last out of 7. I wouldn’t focus on those negatives because sometimes that happens after a major rest. Cristian Torres rides moderately well, and at 6/1, it should be a bet for sure!

Wagering Recommendation: Trifecta Wheel, 6 w 2/4 w 2/4

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Enjoy some racing from South Florida! Best of luck on another run at Gulfstream Park!