Keeneland Horse Racing Analysis for April 14

Another week of racing at picture perfect Keeneland begins on Wednesday
Another week of racing at picture perfect Keeneland begins on Wednesday

Keeneland is back in action on Wednesday with an eight-race card to kick off the week. Looking to maintain his advantage in the Keeneland Battle Series, our in-house handicapper has scoured the card for winners, making picks for every race and providing in-depth analysis of his best value plays throughout the day.

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country on Wednesday, be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Free Horse Racing Picks

Race 5

Linny Kate (#5) is your likely favorite in the kickoff leg of the Late Pick 4 and she does pretty much nothing for me. This filly flashed some potential as a 3-year-old last year, nearly overcoming a soft pace to win at Belmont Park two back, however her 2021 debut leaves a lot to be desired considering she got a very good trip and couldn’t make up any ground on the top two finishers. She’s going to take a lot of money simply because she’s trained by Chad Brown and I just don’t see the upside with her.

The same goes for the filly drawn just to her inside, Talking Book (#4). She got a very good trip at Gulfstream in her last start and was only able to break her maiden by the narrowest of margins against an inferior bunch. She, too, is going to attract serious attention, and since this is as evenly matched a field as you will see at Keeneland, I think it’s imperative to look for higher-priced alternatives.

The one I landed on is Take Charge Ro (#7). On paper she looks just like Linny Kate and Talking Book, however I think her recent maiden score at Gulfstream is better than it looks. Furthermore, this filly ran arguably the best race of her career over this turf course last year against a loaded group of maiden special weights, and I’m expecting her to improve upon returning to Keeneland. I won’t say she has a big edge over the two likely favorites, but she is going to be double the price and I believe she’s the most talented filly in the race.

I also wouldn’t discount Tasaamuh (#6), whose overseas form is lackluster but makes her North American debut for trainer Graham Motion, a potent trainer with European imports, and Lake Lucerne (#11), who probably ran better than Linny Kate in her first U.S. start and has a right to move forward here.

Race 6

Take Charge Patti (#3) is ostensibly more of a turfer that has the look of a career maiden, and perhaps she is as she makes her 16th career start in this spot, however I’m hopeful that the drop in class will be the key to unlocking her potential. This filly has run exclusively against maiden special weights in her career to no avail, but she’s logged races fast enough to beat this field on a number of occasions, including a couple main-track outings. If people want to dismiss her simply because she’s had a bunch of chances, that’s fine, but I think the circumstances are completely different here as she meets maiden claimers for the first time, and it’s not a particularly good group at that. If she’s seriously going to be near her 8-1 morning-line odds, she’s well worth a bet, in my opinion.

Also at 8-1 on the morning line, I think Runaway Mom (#4) is another sneaky strong play here. Her dirt races look middling at best, though she may have quietly taken a step forward two back at Gulfstream when she ran fourth behind a pair of talented fillies, and this also happens to be her first start against maiden claimers on dirt. Ultimately I think these two will offer value because of the money Deemed Essential (#5) is likely to attract. I know Todd Pletcher has been on a sensational run at Keeneland, however this filly’s best race came last out on turf and her dirt races are quite underwhelming. She’s going to need to move way forward on the main track to win, but it’s tough for Pletcher to improve upon the strong work he does at Gulfstream.

Race 7

It’s a smaller field than the one found in Race 5, but this is another fascinating turf race with a good deal of parity among the top contenders. Stunning Sky (#2) is probably going to go off favored and I really don’t have many knocks against her aside from price. This filly put together a solid sophomore campaign, including winning the G3 Valley View over this turf course, and she even ran a cracking race in her 4-year-old debut in the Jersey Lilly at Sam Houston. She’s clearly a major player in this race, but I wonder if she looks a bit better on paper than she actually is and she could be pace compromised in this spot given the lack of early speed. At a very short price, I’m going to take a couple shots against her.

Based on her last race in the Tom Benson Memorial at Fair Grounds it looks as though Winter Sunset (#6) could also be the victim of a soft pace, but I actually think she could be one of the main beneficiaries. An impeccably-bred daughter of Tapit, Winter Sunset, who had previously shown adequate early speed as a 3-year-old, was absolutely crushed at the break of the Tom Benson and left near the back of the pack. I can’t say she got a horrible trip from there, but it was always going to be very difficult to overcome such an unfortunate start and she rallied nicely inside of horses in the stretch. This is now the first time since her quality 3-year-old campaign in 2019 that she’s been able to string races together, and if she takes a step forward in this spot she can definitely post the mild upset, especially if she’s able to get away to a clean beginning with Florent Geroux taking the call.

Keeneland Picks, Entries & Results
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