Keeneland Picks: Doubledogdare U to Bet This Late P3

Another Friday at Keeneland arrives, and it is tough to fathom that we are already more than halfway through. It will be over before we know it! In that vein, let’s enjoy it while it lasts . . .

As we have throughout this April Meet, we have a complete rundown of the fields, with select analysis. Check it out! Today, I have another juicy Pick 3 that promises to offer some major value.

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LATE PICK 3…

LEG 1: (Race 8: Turf, 5½F, ALLW81k, F&M 4+)

This Late P3 sequence has some major twists and turns . . . and that is what makes this so exhilarating. When you are sprinting on the grass, anything can happen. Over the years some pretty formful happenings have occurred, and then decidedly not so much. You have to plan ahead, and be ready when the curves come—and they will.

Today, I am not taking any chances to start, so I am hitting the “All” button, and hoping, in more than just an alliterative sense, that the favorites fail to fire. It is not a foregone conclusion that Wesley Ward’s Jades Gelly #7 and Christophe Clement’s Lexintonia #10 will be near the top of the tote . . . there I go again. But I am guessing so, based on their training pedigree. Still, there are some weaknesses here; like the fact the former has not been seen since last year, and the latter didn’t perform all that well last time against what amounted to a poor field. Mind you, we can use this pair, but others are way more enticing.

For instance, take a look at Al Stall’s entry, Zero to Sixty #5. This filly hasn’t run since last December, but she has grass burning experience. She won her debut @theSPA last year, and clearly took to the surface. Though she didn’t hit the board in her next out at Kentucky Downs, that's allowable since that track presents difficulties when shipping in. I like the fact that she has American Pharoah blood on her side, plus the aid of rider Colby Hernandez. She is just the type that could surprise at what will be a big price (10/1+). Leaving from the #5 hole is also a proven advantage.

I like her, and also several others, so this should be a great start to the batting order.

Selections: 1-12 (ALL)

LEG 2: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/16th, Doubledogdare S. (G3), $100k, F&M 4+)

As we get to the 2nd Leg of the last of the P3s, it happens to be the feature on the Friday card. The Doubledogdare (G3) is a stakes contest that regularly draws a salty group of runners. I don’t want to get too cute at this stage because odds on we covered a long shot in that first sequence. Several cases can be made for different runners in this race, but to my eye, the winner is clearly Brad Cox’s Bonny South #5. She is head-and-shoulders above the rest, so much so that I cannot see anyone beating her. Sure, the layoff might concern some, but this is Cox we are talking about. The refinement of his training prowess continues to belies criticism.

It might seem that this daughter of Munnings always ends up a bridesmaid, and you would be correct. However, I could offer a retort to each of those last 3 races that resulted in such finishes. Since she was back in training in February, her works look tighter and tighter, especially that last one that was a bullet at 5F/.58. The Juddmonte homebred appears poised for a major win, and I think Florent Geroux knows what he needs to do. I would like to see him put her up front, but I think I will defer to Cox. Others might look game, but I think Geroux’s mount wins the day, despite the presence of Speech #6, who will be the favorite.

Selections: 5 (Single)

LEG 3: (Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, MSW79k, 3)

The finale is a Baxter’s Box, coupled with a Rubik Cube, that are then paired with some Level-5 Sudoku. Leave your trepidation at the door or back in the Paddock, because we are going full throttle on the Haggin sod.

It looks like Shadwell Stable’s entry will take a good bit of money considering they have a hot pairing in Luis Saez and Todd Pletcher. Mubtadaa #3 appears ready for her 2nd career try after the colt sprinted on the grass back at Gulfstream in late January. It’s not like she actually won that day (finished 4th), so I am not sure that she stretches out successfully here at Keeneland. In fact, I am so skeptical about his odds (2/1), that I am decidedly against “Singling” him. The same could be said for Scarlet Fusion #6 from the Casse Barn. He is a Curlin colt that gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard once again. He has yet to break his maiden after 5x, all on dirt. Now switching to the grass, it is hard to buck such an accomplished trainer like this one, but why not? Casse isn’t perfect . . . I know these connections for both “favs” are formidable, but there is value to be had elsewhere.

Instead, let’s land on a runner like Paulo Lobo’s Prince Maior #5. Here is an argument . . . Last October at Keeneland during Fall Stars, Lobo proved he can train some solid turfers. In that spirit, though he has not notched a win yet during this Meet, he is due. This colt that he brings into this spot is a Brownwood Farm homebred who has several aspects that you might like. Out of Data Link, his pedigree on the dam side is the one that sparkles. Mad Princess came by way of Artie Schiller, and those take to the grass better than most. As far as his PPs go, last out on the AW in a MC30k at Turfway he improved markedly, compared to his debut back in November at Churchill. Jockey Alex Achard isn’t Rosario, Saez, or Gaffs on the green, but he knows this horse since he has been aboard him both times.

The Lobo price on his #5 is going to drift above 10/1 . . . that equates to a major opportunity. What a great way to complete this ticket!

Selections: 5 (Single)

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.50 P3 TICKET COST: $6.00

Enjoy some action from Lexington, Kentucky! The tradition of Keeneland continues…