Keeneland Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for October 14

Trainer Graham Motion sends a strong win candidate to Keeneland for their Thursday card. Take a look at these selections below ...
Trainer Graham Motion sends a strong win candidate to Keeneland for their Thursday card. Take a look at these selections below ...

The second week at Keeneland continues with some Thursday racing! With an 10-race card, it is sure to be a challenging one for even the most-seasoned handicappers.

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the wonderful Keeneland pomp and circumstance! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Thursday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Horse Racing Picks
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LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 7: Turf, 1 3/16ths, MSW84k, F&M 3+)

The Thursday card at Keeneland is not without challenges, and it begins with this distance test for more advanced female runners. Going on the turf in a situation like this, I am focused on several runners that will help us move on to the next leg in the sequence. One of my more intriguing selections is Shug McGaughey’s Flanigan’s Cove #3. This younger filly may not have broken her maiden yet, but she has great potential what with Kitten’s Joy in her background, Tyler Gafflione in the saddle, and a “good effort” last time at Colonial Downs on the grass. Her fitness is as high as can be, and I expect her to have a shot at graduating fully.

Using her in this ticket is a must, but I also fancy a couple of other runners who are likely. Jena Antonucci’s Fleeting Glimpse #5, who is a Spendthrift homebred by the now deceased Malibu Moon, has excellent class after 3 attempts at Saratoga. Those were all MSW 100k races, which should be considered top notch. This 3-yr-old is up for a distance exam like this one, as veteran rider Julien Leparoux climbs aboard for the 1st time. He doesn’t ride in as many races as he used to, but that doesn’t mean he is not up for a Keeneland try.

The last entry that looks worthy of committing to is Graham Motion’s Palamos #7. The Maryland-based trainer regularly makes a trip to Keeneland, with the hope of notching some all-important wins. This 4-yr-old filly by Blame actually made her debut last fall in Lexington. Since then, she has tried all the NYRA tracks on the turf, with some nice success. Jockey James Graham has the mount, and he had a solid “Opening Weekend” @KEE (6/1-1-1). Look for this well-bred filly to be game in this spot … Herringswell’s principal has a great history with these types. My top selection …let’s roll on!

Selections: 3/5/7 (3-Deep)

 

LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 7F, ALLW86k, 3+)

The 2nd Leg of this LP4 is one of those tough 1-turn affairs which tests the sprinters and the routers in different ways. Sometimes it is a “Three Bears” mentality … just right. This type of ALLW Co. race brings together a large field of 12. That speaks to opportunity, and should test our skills to the max. I am thinking quite a few folks will be thinking that Bill Mott’s Olympiad #6 will get plenty of action. This colt by Speightstown tried to hunt down Baby Yoda back at Saratoga in early September. It did not end up happening, as he finished 4+ lengths behind. With the addition of Flavien Prat, Mott is hoping he will have more staying power this time around.

Over the 1st weekend in Central KY, everyone noticed the work of Dallas Stewart. He won a nice turf race, and hit the board in another contest. He sends a long shot into Keeneland that could be an interesting wager. Tiberius Mercurius #10 is a horse that is trying to find himself. Is he a turfer or made for the dirt? Does a particular barn suit him more than another one? Many question afoot when it comes to this one’s history. Under Stewart’s tutelage, this son of The Factor has tried a pair of ALLW Co. races to no avail. I think there is some sneaky, Ken Wahl-type ability hidden here, and I want to add this one in. Sure, he has not looked like much at Kentucky Downs and Churchill, but maybe coming to Keeneland is just what he needs. Colby Hernandez is having a good year, and looks for his 1st win of the Meet. The price on this one is going to be long, and that suits me just fine.

Besides this runner, I want to include one more that might cover us. Shug McGaughey is not a HOF trainer for nothing, and his colt by the budding sire, Karakontie looks plausible. Bears Watching #9 dove into ALLW Co. last time out at Churchill, and was stuffed. He looked like he had something left at the top of the lane, but everything fizzled rapidly. Most bettors were probably incredulous because he was thought to have so much promise after breaking his maiden last time out at Gulfstream in such fine fashion. Maybe he deserves another chance, but even with Tyler Gaffalione, it will not be easy. I am not sure he is a “Single,” but let’s consider him a threat as he enters from such a celebrated barn.

Going deeper in a spot like this one might seem sensible, but in order to keep this ticket manageable, we need to be judicious about the choices we make. Here’s to going 3-Deep …

Selections: 6/9/10 (3-Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 1½, ALLW88k, 3+)

The only other turf race on the Thursday line-up is this one … a grass distance marathon for older males. I am always on the lookout for Mike Maker runners in a spot like this one because he trains the best. He has 1 of the 12 that are entered in this spot—Malthael #7. This former Tom Morley charge came to the Kentucky-based trainer during the summer, and was put on the turf distance track not long after. The 5-yr-old gelding has steadily improved over the green, and he nearly won his last race, a 62.5k contest, at Kentucky Downs going 1 5/16ths. By Noble Mission and out of Ender’s Sister, the breeding speaks to going long. Maker knows this, and he has Tyler Gaffalione at the controls. There is no doubt that this “stayer” can make his mark at Keeneland.

Let’s use him, and also Rusty Arnold’s Mud Pie #4 that is by Morning Line. A perennial ALLW Co. bowler, this colt continues to work hard in distance contests. He did not care much for the “give” that the Saratoga turf yielded back in August (even though he was 3rd), but he acquitted himself well the next time out at Kentucky Downs. Julien Leparoux held on late in that duel with Decision Maker late in the game, and he rides once again @KEE. I love watching this jockey when he is guiding his mount in spots like these. It is like watching a surfer sculpt and shoot through a half-pipe. The Pape homebred already has hit the board 2x at this track … now he just needs a win to make it “across.” This one is going to be my play of the day, as we go with this pair! Moving on horseplayers …

Selections: 4/7 (2-Deep)

 

LEG 4: (Race 10: Dirt, 6F, MC15k, F&M 3+)

It is time to round out this ticket, and get the printer up and running. I am glad I saved some cash, what with my selections to this point in the sequence. The reason I say that is here we have a very difficult finale that could go any which way. When presented with MC-types, and toss in a distance of 6F on the dirt, that makes for a troublesome equation. It is probably best to simply hit the “All” button, and put your feet up in order to relax. Doing that makes good sense. Making it this far necessitates such a move in order to keep our hopes of ticket cashing alive.

When it comes to an actual top selection though, I am pretty keen on John Ortiz’s Catalan #7. The filly by Street Boss has sprinting in her blood, and she gets the aggressive young man Reylu Gutierrez in the saddle. This guy rides down in Texas, and really anywhere he can gain experience. He has that hungry look about him, and he knows how to “send” a runner right from the gong. Even though his mount was not terribly successful in MSW Co., that doesn’t mean she cannot succeed on the drop. On the contrary, it might work to her advantage, especially being so lightly raced. If she can maintain some of those speed figs she has posted at places like Oaklawn, Ellis, and Churchill, then she might have a shot at breaking her maiden.

As for the rest of this field, we have a couple of 1st time starters, and a load of others that just have not found much success at either the MC or MSW levels. That is going to make it difficult to discern who is ready. Finding the right trainer-jockey combo looks to be the best course of action. Trust in Ortiz and Gutierrez, and then include the rest … maybe a real price horse will come through!

Selections: 1-11 (All)

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.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $99.00

Horse racing and Keeneland in October … Is there anything better?

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