Keeneland Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for October 15: Franklin County Stakes ...
With an 10-race card this Friday at Keeneland, it is sure to be a challenging one for even the most-seasoned handicappers! Today's "feature" is the Grade 3 Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes, which should be a rousing sprint on the Haggin Course. What a race!
At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all the history and beauty that Keeneland has to offer! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Friday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
---------------------------------------------
LATE PICK 4 …
LEG 1: (Race 7: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW90k, F&M 3+)
The Friday LP4 comes rolling in, and it is sure to cause some excitement. These ALLW Co. races on the grass, at a route, are some of my favorite races in North America. Keeneland is fleeting, so you have to enjoy them while they last. In this spot, we want to start off on the right foot, and that means either possessing a strong opinion or going as deep as possible.
Thinking about how long shots can prevail at a condition level like this one, makes me want to mine a real gem. Eddie Kenneally’s Curly Ruth #2 is not going off at double-digits, but she has some nice performances under her saddle since coming over from Arnaud Delacour’s operation back in April. This Curlin filly came off the Haggin in a 1 3/16ths race right before the switch. She did not run well that day, but Kenneally has her incredibly fit. I am not sure that I am willing to “Single” her, but at 8/1, or thereabouts, she could be a really nice price. Jockey Adam Beschizza has ridden her both at Ellis and Kentucky Downs, with much in the way of promise.
A couple of others that I would like to use in a situation like this include, Brendan Walsh’s new charge Bacchanalia #4, Todd Pletcher’s well-bred Sweet Melania #5, and Ignacio Correas’s vet Joy Epifora #9. This terrible trio has the ability to counterbalance my top selection, as their styles complement one another depending on the pace scenario. There will be traffic troubles … there always are … but you have some expert riders like Santana, Johnny V, and Graham, who are at the controls. Each brings their own approach to the turf. Going 4-Deep makes a ton of sense, and should keep us covered as we move on.
Selections: 2/4/5/9 (4-Deep)
LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 7F, ALLW86k, F&M 3+)
Once we get past that tough turf contest, it is time to turn our attention to this longer sprint on the MT. To me, this is the chance to nab a “Single.” That honor falls to Bill Mott’s filly by Frosted, Silver Strand #5. The 3-yr-old did something that is not too easy to accomplish—break her maiden on debut. These Frosted-types are impressive, and they are part of a cadre that is making some noise. If you post a speed fig that lands somewhere in the lower 90s, then you are cooking with gas. As John Velazquez rides again after that splendid start, this one looks like as sure a bet as possible. I also like the fact that both the place and show horses in that MSW100k at Saratoga have both come back and won. That is an excellent sign …
Selections: 5 (Single)
LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 5½F, Buffalo Trace Franklin County S. (G3), $150k, F&M 3+)
When it comes to the toughest races of the toughest at Keeneland, then sprinting on the grass in stakes company is up there. In spots like these, most bettors like to lean on Wesley Ward trainees. The local Kentucky-based trainer has the well-travelled Campanelle #4 headed back to Keeneland for this Grade 3. The last time the filly by Kodiac (GB) was in-town was for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1). She was no match for Aunt Pearl that day (no one was …), but she bounced back in the always difficult Commonwealth Cup (G1) during Royal Ascot. Ward then kept her on that side of the Atlantic, and the Stonestreet runner tried in a challenging Group 1 at Deauville in France. Finishing dead last was not the result that was intended. As Joel Rosario takes over the controls, I am not convinced that this is a “lock” for Ward. Maybe even 7/2 is just too short of a price …
Let’s use her on our ticket, but I am much more interested in a number of runners that are drawn to her outside. Namely, Joe Sharp’s Catch a Bid #6, George Weaver’s Lead Guitar #7, Ian Wilkes’ Violenza #8, Chris Hartman’s Elle Z #9, and finally, Michelle Lovell’s Change of Control #12 all look promising. Each has some intriguing races under them, and I could even see Wilkes’ long shot, at 30/1, finding a way to get this one done. Grass sprinting’s unpredictability make it a unique handicapping experience, and in these moments, you want to have as many equine options as possible. That should cover us! I give my top nod to Sharp … btw …
Selections: 4/6/7/8/9/12 (6-Deep)
LEG 4: (Race 10: Dirt, 7F, MSW84k, 2F)
The icing on the cake comes around, and these female rookies are going to try and outshine one another. For my money, I like a couple in here that I think can get the job done.
Trainer Brad Cox has some wins on his ledger at Keeneland as we move towards the halfway point in the Meet. He has a 2-yr-old filly named La Bombonera #9 drawn in here that looks to be well-bred out of Quality Road. Ridden by Florent Geroux, this time around, Clearview Stables is hoping she can improve on her maiden voyage that was taken over at Churchill. That was a mess of a track that day back in September, so maybe a little fairer set-up will do her some good.
One other runner that I would very much like to use is a member of Ignacio Correas’ outfit. Ocean Size #3 already has a pair of races under her. The daughter of versatile sire Maclean’s Music is gaining steam, and she could be on the cusp of her 1st win. With Julien Leparoux in the irons, the connections have a burgeoning star on their hands. Who doesn’t like the old “3rd-off” angle when it comes to an opportunity like this one? Let’s roll with this pair … cash a nice ticket.
Selections: 3/9 (2-Deep)
-------------------------------------------------------
.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $24.00
Horse racing and Keeneland in October … Is there anything better