Keeneland Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for October 20

With only a few more days left ... Keeneland enters its 3rd Week ... check out these selections, plus our Late Pick analysis below.
With only a few more days left ... Keeneland enters its 3rd Week ... check out these selections, plus our Late Pick analysis below.

The 3rd week at Keeneland arrives with some Wednesday racing! With an 8-race card, it is sure to be a challenging one for even the most-seasoned handicappers.

If you are looking for a unique wager, then maybe you should try the new Turf Pick 3 play. The $3 minimum wager will comprise the final 3 turf races of the day, and offer the low takeout of 15%. Should be a solid bet for all your grass fans out there.

At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the wonderful Keeneland pomp and circumstance! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned! 

If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Wednesday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.

Horse Racing Picks
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LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 5: Dirt, 6½F, MSW84k, 2)

The new week at Keeneland begins with this tell-tale race, as young colts do battle going around 1-turn. Nothing easy about this one … Going with a solid barn or a specific pedigree seems in order. When it comes to experience, Mike Maker has it in spades. He teams up with Tyler Gaffalione to try and get Fan the Fire #2 his 1st win for Three Diamonds Farm. Last out at Kentucky Downs, the Hard Spun colt had her fair share of problems going 1 mile on the grass. Based on her prior 2 sprints at Saratoga on the dirt, she should be able to resume some of her better form. I think she should be a “Single” right out of the gate because I do not see anyone in here that can rival her experience (too many firsters …). Take what the tote gives you at 2/1, and move on …

Selections: 2 (Single)

 

LEG 2: (Race 6: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW93k, F&M 3+)

With the weather in good order for Wednesday, the Haggin should be in good shape considering how much rainfall hit Lexington at the backend of last week. Going 2-turns on the grass at Keeneland always makes for a challenging handicapping experience at these ALLW Co. levels. Out of these 6 entered in this spot, this looks like a match race between 2 stalwarts … George Weaver’s Daddy Is a Legend #1 and Brad Cox’s Dominga #4.

Each has a wealth of grass experience and hails from strong barns. The former probably gets my vote, but it is close. This 6-yr-old mare by Scatt Daddy has earnings in excess of $666k to her name. She used to run for Rusty Arnold before making the switch to Weaver. There is no question that running in the company that she has puts her in a special category. Even though she was 8th in the First Lady (G1), earlier in this Meet, that was against some of the best in the middle distance division. With Tyler Gaffalione aboard, she is going to be rolling hard late in the game.

As for Cox’s entry, I have no doubt that his 4-yr-old filly can go hoof-to-hoof with her rival. She has not run poorly in several “Non-G” contests, and even though her last at Kentucky Downs was a poor showing, the daughter of Ghostzapper can take her best shot here. Florent Geroux is used to going up against Gaffalione, and he knows his mount pretty well at this point. If he can wind her up, putting her in the proper path late, then he might have a chance to get this one home. As for me, going 2-deep in this portion of the sequence seems judicious.

Selections: 1/4 (2-Deep)

 

LEG 3: (Race 7: Dirt, 7F, AOC62.5k, F&M 3+)

In what is probably the toughest part of this 4-race lineup, most will be swayed by M/L favorite Movie Moxie #2 from the barn of George Weaver. The filly has ability, as we saw when she was under the watchful eye of Eddie Kenneally. However, I think she is a tepid favorite at best, and based on her 1st voyage with her new outfit, she spent most of the OC80k @The SPA going backwards. Maybe given super jockey Tyler Gaffalione another crack at riding her is a good plan, but I would look elsewhere when it comes to tabbing a winner on top.

For my money, I am especially high on a longer shot like Tony Granitz’s Big Band Luzziann #4. When bettors see that her last action was at Arlington and Indiana Grand, they might not be so enthusiastic. But I beg to differ … The switch from the turf to the dirt might just do the trick based on her pedigree, and I think she has built up enough class to be able to game with this bunch. The addition of rider Mitch Murrill is welcome because I like his ability … one day, mark my words, this kid is going to be a star.

As for the rest of this field, I want to add a few more to my ticket, just in case my double-digit selection fails to show. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a couple of nice wins out 12 during the Fall Meet, and I am sure Tipsy Gal #1, ridden by Brian Hernandez, has the chance to make an impact. Though this filly by Majesticperfection has not done much running since coming to Churchill and then Colonial Downs, he fared well prior down at the Fair Grounds. She has some solid works under her, which is also a plus. I bet she is going to shine more than we think.

Adding in Graham Motion’s Thinking #5 and Norm Casse’s Powder River #6 also make sense. They both come from solid barns, and posted speed figs last time out that are commensurate with their experience. Motion doesn’t run on the dirt all that often, so he must see something promising in his entry. As for Casse, he has 2 wins out of 6 tries at Keeneland this time around, and who doesn’t like to see the offspring of Mineshaft run at what is almost a route race.

This one should be fun to tote watch … Hope we get a price home in this slot!

Selections: 1/2/4/5/6 (5-Deep)

 

LEG 4: (Race 8: Turf, 1 1/16th, MSW84k, 2F)

The finale is going to be one of those moments where we need to either “Single” the M/L favorite, Brad Cox’s Already Charming #1, or flip the script … jump the shark … roll the dice … you get it … and play against. Trying to beat the Godolphin homebred looks incredibly tough, despite the fact that she was in a different time zone when California Angel crossed the wire in that last race at Kentucky Downs. When you are 43 off the winner, then something probably went terribly wrong for Florent Geroux and Co. Maybe coming to Keeneland is just what this well-bred daughter of More Than Ready needs right now. She has the training under her belt, the backing of Cox’s turf training prowess, and a chance at redemption. Sometimes breeding and the trainer trump the field size issues … Cox rules with the “Boys in Blue.” It’s a “Single” …

Selections: 1 (Single)

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.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $10.00

Horse racing and Keeneland in October … Is there anything better?

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