Keeneland Picks & Late Pick 4 Betting Analysis for October 23
Racing at Keeneland enters the 2nd to last weekend, and that means we are almost done with this celebrated event. Enjoy it while it lasts! Today, we have a 10-race card that is sure to be a challenge for even the most-seasoned of handicappers.
Betting options abound including the $3 Turf Pick 3, and our focus, the .50 Late Pick 4. That has a guaranteed $300k in it, and of course that means that it will build from there.
At Horseracing.net/us we have you covered, including all of the wonderful Keeneland pomp and circumstance! It is a good time for some of the best that North American racing has to offer. Stay tuned!
If you're looking for picks elsewhere around the country this Saturday be sure to check out our free Horse Racing Picks via the gold button below.
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LATE PICK 4 …
LEG 1: (Race 7: Dirt, 7F, Perryville S., $150k, 3)
Saturday at Keeneland arrives, and we are going to begin with a “Non-G” that always is an intriguing contest. Going deep into the KEE chute, then yields to a 1-turn finish. Kicking off the Late Pick 4 is a welcome challenge … to say the least. Out of these 9, 3-yr-old colts, I am most interested in the return to the track of Mark Casse’s Soup and Sandwich #1. This colt by Into Mischief turned some heads along the Derby Trail when he was 2nd to Known Agenda in the Florida Derby (G1). He was a popular “wise guy” pick on the 1st Saturday in May, but the Live Oak Plantation runner ended up dead last. Now, after a break, we will see what kind of gears he has, as Tyler Gaffalione takes up the piloting duties once again.
Do not get me wrong, I like Casse's former "Trail Runner" quite a bit, even though he has been on the bench for almost ½ of the year. Let’s use him because Casse is not a HOF-er for nothing. However, my top selection is Tom Drury’s Runaway Magic #9, who was bred by Bruce Lunsford. The “Runhappy” Program has not exactly gone as well as it could, but that can pivot at any given time. One step at a time for Claiborne and “Mattress Mack,” where this sire stands. What is most inviting about the former Rusty Arnold speedster is that he won nicely over at Churchill last time in a high-level ALLW Co. contest. The gelding was a square price then at 7/1, and will be even more so at 12/1 or higher in this spot. Yes, this is a step-up in class, but Brian Hernandez is having a strong Meet (though he was off his mounts on Friday, so check Kurt Becker’s changes before R1). Drury never quite gets the due he deserves. Therefore, this is a play for sure!
As far as my opening salvo … 2-Deep is what I can afford, as we move on!
Selections: 1/9 (2-Deep)
LEG 2: (Race 8: Turf, 1 1/16th, ALLW93k, 3+)
Moving over to the Haggin Turf Course, if the few rain drops that are in the forecast, can stay away, then we might have something close to a firm “going” on Saturday. As for whom to include, I want to tag 3 out of this 12-horse field that can help me move on. First, I am interested in Wayne Catalano’s Big Dreaming #12. Well-bred for the grass by Declaration of War, the 4-yr-old should be about cutback in distance since his last race was a marathon test at Kentucky Downs. The Calumet Turf Cup was a much tougher race than this one, and I am not against the use of Junior Alvarado’s services. There is a chance that this one could be double-digits come post time.
As for another pick, what about one of my favorites from a couple years back at Tampa … Graham Motion’s English Bee #6? The veteran has some good experience under him, and as a 5-yr-old has the ability to rate, if the fractions suit. James Graham actually rode this one last year for a trio of races, and the veteran always turns in a surprise performance when you least expect it. The final pick to add to this ticket is Larry Rivelli’s Bizzee Channel #11, who could scoop everyone. When this conditioner and jockey Jareth Loveberry got together in the Arlington days, they could be a destructive force. Like the “Bee,” he is by English Channel, and should enjoy a turn on the Haggin. He has been there before …
That should give us a nice chance in what comes up a very tough event!
Selections: 6/11/12 (3-Deep)
LEG 3: (Race 9: Dirt, 7F, Lexus Raven Run S. (G2), $250k, 3F)
The Saturday “feature” is the other “bookend” to the Perryville S. The difference is that this one is a Grade 2 affair, and there is much on the line … most of all, a healthy purse! We find ourselves in the midst of a large 13-horse field. That fact necessitates that we go as deep as possible, in order to ensure a victory.
I have several opinions, but I am not sure if Bill Mott’s Obligatory #13 has what it takes to be a “favorite.” She is a Juddmonte homebred, so bettors will smile about that for sure. Of course, she has contested some nice races, and built a strong class dossier. When you are in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), the 8 Belles (G2), the Acorn (G1), and the Test (G1) that means you are against some of the best in the division. Other than the contest at Churchill though (where she was 17/1), she never actually won. Is she up for a tough match this one is going to be? Will see … Honestly, I like the other half of the Mott uncoupled entry … Caramel Swirl #8. By Union Rags, she is talented, and capable of reaching some top speeds. This one is also a homebred for Godolphin, and looking at her recent works, she has been firing on all cylinders. Let’s include Mott’s entries, but I also think that including these other runners makes good sense …
How about, Souper Sensational #3, Cilla #7, Zainalarab #9, and Miss Speedy #11? Each one of these has some major upside, and I was especially taken aback when I saw the Shadwell Stable-owned #9 from Chad Brown’s midst. This speedster was quite a price back at the Keeneland September Sale in 2019, and ran nicely off the bench at Saratoga back in August. If she can make the class leap into this tough Grade 2 spot, with Johnny V aboard, she could be a player as this race unfolds. That makes 6 for us in this event, and we are going to need every single one of them, in order to move on!
Selections: 3/7/8/9/11/13 (6-Deep)
LEG 4: (Race 10: Turf, 1 Mile, ALLW86k, 3+)
The Keeneland lawn is the place to be at the end of this Guaranteed $300k LP4 ticket. The pool is bound to be chock full when the 1st Leg blazes away from the starting gate. In this spot, I am sure after a “Single,” but I do not think it is going to happen. Trust me, I am pretty high on my top selection, Mike Maker’s Healing #4. I like the way the Paradise Farms entry ran after a long layoff at Kentucky Downs. Finishing 3rd was not too shabby in that ALLW Co. race, and I think the gelding can improve even more coming to Keeneland Haggin. The addition of Tyler Gaffalione is a major plus.
Let’s use the 4-yr-old by Americain, but also, I like the look of Brad Cox’s Pine Knoll #10. His trainer has turned in a nice Meet at Keeneland once again, and this one has a nice turf pedigree through City Zip. Florent Geroux once again climbs aboard, and after a couple of ALLW Co. races at Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs, he should be able to contest for a win in the finale. Using both of these turfers gives us options, and you cannot get much better than conditioners like Maker and Cox. What a finish this is going to be …
Selections: 4/10 (2-Deep)
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.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $36.00
Horse racing and Keeneland in October … Is there anything better?