Keeneland Picks: Lexington S. featured in the LP4 on April 16

The 1st weekend of Keeneland's Spring Meet is in the rearview mirror (even though it was just last weekend)! Now, we roll into Saturday with a solid card that should be a fun one to play (recall ... Easter Sunday, 17 April is dark).

With the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes (the last KYD148 "Points" race of the season), which will be part of the Late Pick 4, our turfwriter J.N. Campbell will put together an affordable ticket! Take a look ...

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LATE PICK 4 …

LEG 1: (Race 8: Turf, 5½F, Giant’s Causeway S., $200k, F&M 3+)

We open up this Late Pick 4 with a tough race named for that famed grass-producing sprinter. When it comes to “storylines,” most of the betting talk will comprise a debate of who is best … Wesley Ward’s Campanelle #3 or Michelle Lovell’s Change of Control #5. I don’t particularly care for either of these entries, despite the fact that both have strong class lines. As for as a top choice, I am wanting to back Todd Pletcher’s cut-backer … a filly by Noble Mission (GB) named Jouster #6. This filly had a nice go of it early in ’21 when she ran through Florida on her way to a score in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland. She likes to control the pace, and the addition of Flavien Prat looks like a superb move. The class lines that she has built running against Con Lima, Technical Analysis, and In Italian, should work to her benefit. I also want to include the other half of the Pletcher uncoupled entry, A G Indy #14. Breaking from the extreme outside post could have its benefits, as the mare by Take Charge Indy tries to avoid any traffic troubles. A former Doug O’Neill-trainee, her HOF conditioner tried her “1st out” in the Inside Information (G2) at Gulfstream in late January, but she was in over her head. With turf form in her background, the move to the Haggin at Keeneland should be appreciated. Regular Pletcher man Luis Saez gets the call once again … Let’s go with a pair of Pletcher players … we will need to go deeper as the sequence rolls on!

Selections: 6/14 (2-Deep)

LEG 2: (Race 9: Dirt, 1 1/8th, Lexington S. (G3), $400k, 3)

To have a strong opinion about a leg in any sequence is the best feeling ever … It does not mean that in the end, you will always score, but it does allow you some flexibility elsewhere. When it comes to the “featured” Lexington S. (the last of the KYD148 “Points” races), I believe I have a “Single.” There is no question that there are options within this contest, but I am “all-in” on Dallas Stewart’s Strava #8. A colt by Into Mischief, this WinStar/Siena-owned runner tried 2-turns for the 1st time down at the Fair Grounds in mid-February. That was a tough race to enter because Brad Cox’s Cyberknife just took apart his opponents. Still, the potential for Stewart’s entry is looking smart, and I like this spot with Tyler Gaffalione getting aboard for what will be the 3rd time. The addition of “Blinkers” only adds to my zest, and I think this colt will be a superb price on Saturday ... 20/1 or higher? Could be … Nothing like a conditioner who knows how to make adjustments … Stewart is a master! Moving right along …

Selections: 8 (Single)

LEG 3: (Race 10: Turf, 1 1/16th, Jenny Wiley S. (G1), $500k, F&M 4+)

Up next, we are back on the Haggin for one of the highlights of the April Meet. I always enjoy all of the turf races, but the Maker’s and the Jenny are truly special. This time around, we have a compact field of 6 that have assembled for this 1 1/16th.  I am sure that Chad Brown will garner attention because he has won this race 4x … He is erring on the side of caution, and sending a pair of runners into this Grade 1. The last time we saw Shantisara #3 it was here at Keeneland in the Grade QE2 Cup in mid-October. She won by 5+ lengths that day, and when Flavien Prat asked the question … she answered. The layoff might be her only weakness, but with Prat aboard once again, we can expect her to be a contender once more. Her stablemate, Regal Glory #4, is just as accomplished, if not more so … Incredibly consistent, last year she was pretty much one of the best milers in all of North America. If the Peter Brant daughter of Animal Kingdom decides to win a race, then she does. Regular jockey Jose Ortiz will be on-hand to try and make it so. The added distance that she will experience in this race isn’t a concern, because she tackled it exceedingly well in the Pegasus WC F&M Turf (G3). There is no doubt this race will be tougher, what with her rival present, but she has the ability, so I would not leave her off any tickets. Just in case Brown’s aces are trumped … I also want to include Roger Attfield’s Lady Speightspeare #6, an entry that would have run against the #3 in October, but she was fractious entering the gate that afternoon and had to scratch. I am pleased to see her back at Keeneland, and I like the addition of Luis Saez. No disrespect to Emma-Jayne Wilson because she is a superb rider. It will be interesting to see how the class she has built at Woodbine, Gulfstream, and Tampa, could be put to use here. I would not ignore her because the value is here! Let’s go 3-deep, and head to the finale!

Selections: 3/4/6 (3-Deep)

LEG 4: (Race 11: Dirt, 7F, OC62.5n2x, 4+)

It has not been easy, but that is horse racing for you … we arrive at this dirt sprint that will be rolling down the backstretch … I like this contest quite a bit because we have some celebrities that have found their way into the starting gate. Tops on the “A-List” is Chad Brown’s Highly Motivated #4. You will remember this colt from the Kentucky Derby Trail in 2021. He battled Brad Cox’s Essential Quality in the Blue Grass S. (G2), and was a popular choice at odds of 11/1 at Churchill in the big race. Coming off-the-shelf for Klaravich Stables, it will be interesting to see how he responds. Flavien Prat will take the mount for the 1st time, what with Javier Castellano riding up at Aqueduct. Since I am not entirely sure how fit this now-4-yr-old is, I am going to go deeper with some other selections. When it comes to a top choice, I am mighty pleased to see Mark Casse’s Soup and Sandwich #5 come to Keeneland again for another try. I really liked this one (who is also by Into Mischief) from the Derby Trail last year, and I think he has some good races ahead of him. Having John Velazquez ride him is the best choice ever because he really understands pace scenarios. This mount of his has some late gears, and I would like to see them on display. Others that I want to include are Mark Glatt’s SoCal import, Escape Route #2, Keith Desormeaux’s cheery, Santa Cruiser #6, Ian Wilkes’ Violent City #7, and finally, Brad Cox’s Juddmonte homebred, Ducale #8. All of these offer some value, and should be players late in what looks to be a contentious dirt sprint. Nothing like a speed duel to end the Saturday racing right before the holiday!

Selections: 2/4/5/6/7/8 (6-Deep)

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Ticket: 6-14 / 8 / 3-4-6 / 2-4-5-6-7-8

.50 LP4 TICKET COST: $18.00

Enjoy it while it lasts! Best of luck on another fabulous Keeneland this April in Central Kentucky!