Keeneland Picks: Sultans of Sod and the Late P3
- Keeneland Picks
- Picks (Sean)
- Picks (J.N.)
- Picks (Neil)
- Race 1:
- Race 2:
- Race 3:
- Race 4:
- Race 5:
- Race 6:
- Race 7:
- Race 8:
- Race 9:
- Most Likely Winner:
- Best Value Play:
- Saintsation (Race 4)
- Argentello (Race 5)
- Averly Jane (Race 1)
- Artie's Rumor (Race 5)
- Texas Tiara (Race 1)
- Secret Moment (Race 3)
The 3rd of 4 weeks at Keeneland rolls on, and it is tough to fathom that we are already more than halfway through. It will be over before we know it! In that vein, let’s enjoy it while it lasts . . .
As we have throughout this April Meet, we have a complete rundown of the fields, with select analysis. Check it out! Today, I have another juicy rolling Pick 3 that promises to offer some major value.
By the way, our ‘Cappers Challenge continues, and you can follow our progress as our Editor, Lead Handicapper, and Turf-man try to rack up as many Win-Place scores as they can!
Join us throughout the April Meet for the very best that Keeneland has to offer!
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LATE PICK 3…
LEG 1: (Race 7: Turf, 5½F, ALLW85k, 4+)
Nothing like a Late P3 sequence to get ourselves going on this Thursday. What will make this even tougher is the fact that it is a turf sprint. The field is not an oversized one though, since only 8 have drawn in, so that will narrow our decision-making process considerably. Keeneland took significant rainfall yesterday, so check the conditions of the Haggin before you wager.
Each year when it comes to this format, trainer Wesley Ward always seems to have the best options at the lowest odds. His high-level of specialized training has been well-documented by the Turf Media. He can gate condition with the best of them. Maven #3 is a filly out of American Pharoah who was bred by Ward himself. Now owned by Rich Ravin, he has had his share of travels. After racing a pair of times in Europe, he came home and won one of these types of races on the frontend last summer @KEE. Moving up the ladder proved difficult at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs. He is formidable, but I do not think much of Johnny V’s turf riding ability at this distance.
The “other” Ward entry gets a much more bullish jockey in Joel Rosario. Drawn wide, Ice Wine Stable’s Joker On Jack #8 appears smart, what with a pair of wins under her saddle already. The 4-yr-old out of Declaration of War (strong turf sire), has taken the “Ward Northern Route,” running at his winter base at Turfway Park. There is some tough competition up there, and that AW track transitions nicely to this surface at Keeneland.
I am up for a “Single,” backing Rosario’s ride, but I have to say I am a little unnerved to see Steve Asmussen sending Boldor #2 into this spot. That is an odd choice, and possibly a true wildcard. If you want to go see a runner with a big leg kick, go watch the Sam’s Town 60k back at Delta Downs. That was a massive effort that set up this gelding’s win next out in the King Cotton 150k at Oaklawn Park. I see the Munnings line through this one, and getting Luis Saez makes him dangerous. Still, he lacks grass experience, and I am game to leave him out. Sticking with the “Single” . . .
Selections: 8 (Single)
LEG 2: (Race 8: Dirt, 6F, ALLW81k, 3F)
Heading over to the MT, we are going to keep with the sprinting theme. Once again, Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario team-up with a runner who is drawn wide. R Working Girl #7 makes a ton of sense after she broke her maiden first time out. That effort at Aqueduct back in December was a great start. Now, Ward brings her to Keeneland to see if she can replicate that performance. Having Rosario ride her helps her into the bonus round for sure. I like her on top, but I want to also include a few others since she has not seen live competition in a few months.
Let’s also add Ben Colebrook’s Sa Foradada #1, and Ian Wilkes’ Mischiefful #2. The former is a “runbacker,” who scored earlier in the Meet at a MSW79k event. I love these types because this is a sign that their trainers have a ton of confidence in them. The upgrade to Tyler Gaffalione appears to be a great move. The latter is an Into Mischief filly . . . need we give further explanations? Wilkes came into Keeneland hot as could be from Gulfstream, so he might be able to translate further with a win here.
Lastly, when I see a Brad Cox entry, it is tough to resist. This one, a filly named Inject #4, has the opportunity to get back on the dirt after running on the turf down at the Fair Grounds. She has an inviting pedigree line that runs through Frosted, and my prediction is that this is a sire that you will be hearing more and more about as the year progresses. Extremely versatile, hopefully his offspring can replenish the dirt sprinting coffers.
Those 4 choices should give us some good coverage across this race.
Selections: 1/2/4/7 (4 Deep)
LEG 3: (Race 9: Turf, 1 1/8th, MSW79k, F&M 3+)
To me, there is nothing better than to end on a MSW turf route at Keeneland. If this one remains on the grass and isn’t taken off because of all the weather that has blown through, then it should be a competitive affair. The strongest contender in this race appears to be Cherie DeVaux’s 4-yr-old filly, Coastana #2. At 9/5, she doesn’t seem to offer much value. I don’t doubt though that she could win this race based on her last at Gulfstream, which was against Talking Book. She just missed winning that by a nose, so she has the ability to score in this spot.
Let’s use her, but just in case she isn’t at her best, why not use Ben Colebrook’s Shush#3? This mare has solid experience, though her wins are non-existent. That could change today with Colby Hernandez riding. He has a couple of Keeneland wins already. At 10/1, she should be a nice overlay. Others that entice are, Conor Murphy’s boxcar-priced Zza Zza Zoom #5, and also Chris Davis’ just-missed-last-out Maid of Honor #8. Both of these have major upside when it comes to grass bloodline ability.
I would be remiss if I didn’t include Vicky Oliver’s Flippant #7. This Tapit filly has only a couple of dirt runs, but getting Rosario aboard is a thumbs-up. She is making progress on all fronts, and could be a solid play, as she tries the turf. Going deep in this spot is a good plan, since these types of races can be rather sticky.
Selections: 2/3/5/7/8 (5 Deep)
.50 P3 TICKET COST: $10.00
Enjoy some action from Lexington, Kentucky! The tradition of Keeneland continues…